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The Doomsday Clock Is Now Closer to Midnight Than It's Ever Been (thebulletin.org) 242

Long-time Slashdot reader Drakster writes: The Doomsday Clock, run by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, has moved forward to only 100 seconds to midnight, the closest it has ever been since its launch in 1947. The lack of action on climate change and increasing threats of nuclear war were the primary reasoning for the move.
They cite the weakening of several major arms control treaties in the last year -- and wrote Thursday that the lack of concrete international action on climate change "came during a year when the effects of manmade climate change were manifested by one of the warmest years on record, extensive wildfires, and quicker-than-expected melting of glacial ice...."

But those threats are "compounded by a threat multiplier, cyber-enabled information warfare, that undercuts society's ability to respond. The international security situation is dire, not just because these threats exist, but because world leaders have allowed the international political infrastructure for managing them to erode..."

"By undermining cooperative, science- and law-based approaches to managing the most urgent threats to humanity, these leaders have helped to create a situation that will, if unaddressed, lead to catastrophe, sooner rather than later... [B]oard members are explicitly warning leaders and citizens around the world that the international security situation is now more dangerous than it has ever been, even at the height of the Cold War."
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The Doomsday Clock Is Now Closer to Midnight Than It's Ever Been

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  • Political (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Iamthecheese ( 1264298 ) on Sunday January 26, 2020 @06:40PM (#59658550)
    At this point more than ever before the doomsday clock is being used to push the political agenda of its board more than representing the actual level of risk. The world is wealthier and more stable than it EVER has been. While it seems inevitable there will eventually be a world war brought on by China's increasing strength, and while a regional nuclear exchange is more likely than ever, the world at large is highly interconnected, increasingly sane, and in general is in great shape to survive challenges.
    • Re:Political (Score:5, Insightful)

      by mschuyler ( 197441 ) on Sunday January 26, 2020 @06:49PM (#59658572) Homepage Journal

      I agree. More Doom Porn. It's just that the Harvard professor claiming the new virus was "thermonuclear pandemic level bad" was upstaging them so they had to do something.

    • I wouldn’t call this period in time the most stable one, but a lot of those major arms treaties were broken long before one party or the other officially walked out on them.
      • Re: (Score:2, Flamebait)

        by rtb61 ( 674572 )

        It was actually more stable during the cold war, at least there were agreements in place. Now insane psychopaths run the system, nothing can be done because of corruption and all those insane psychopaths stealing the funding before it can be applied.

        All that is happening is corporate main stream media is spreading corporate propaganda about how great the status quo is and the poor and middle class should just shut the fuck up and if they don't more censorship will occur.

        We are staring 1.5m of sea level ris

        • by Dunbal ( 464142 ) *

          We are staring 1.5m of sea level rise in the face

          Any minute now........ here it comes... oh wait. Just a liiiiitle while longer... you'll see... 1.5m possibly in the next 1000 years. Personally I don't think I will care.

        • by gl4ss ( 559668 )

          it wasn't stabler during the cold war man...

          are you seriously thinking that today, now, just now, it is closer to midnight than during the cuban missile crisis? because thats what you're saying and thats what the doomsday clock guys are saying.

          is it closer now to midnight than when ussr was falling apart and nobody knew wtf they might be doing and we had active genocide incidents going on in europe? of course not.

          and nuclear waste! F IT if the bombs are going to drop because of nuclear waste then what the f

          • Re:Political (Score:4, Insightful)

            by MachineShedFred ( 621896 ) on Monday January 27, 2020 @12:22AM (#59659348) Journal

            makes people not give a fuck about the clock?

            Most people haven't given a fuck about what these guys have to say about anything since about 1989. They are increasingly irrelevant and they know it. So they're trying to claw that relevance back in any way they can - first they started by including climate change, and now fractional minutes.

            It's all a bit "LOOK AT ME!!! YOOOO HOOOOO OVER HERE!!! WE'RE STILL HERE!!!" if you ask me. Just retire your bullshit clock already - nobody cares and your era is over.

    • or China could collapse and it's another power that brings on war. We don't know. But I'm sure these leftists don't have any more insight than more level headed people on both Left and Right.
    • The Doomsday clock is only accurate one or two times a day.

    • In other news, the doomsday clock is now more irrelevant than it's ever been.

      When the cold war ended, so did the specter of nuclear war. The next country to use a nuclear weapon in anger will have the entire world turn on them and shun them out of every economic and financial market there is, and be denounced by every legitimate government, and probably most of the illegitimate governments out there.

      Nuclear weapons kept the peace for 70 years. Now it's the almighty dollar doing that work, and nobody wants

    • by Ichijo ( 607641 )

      The world is wealthier and more stable than it EVER has been.

      Yet the world's debt to GDP ratio is at an all time high and the poor are no wealthier than before, creating a destabilizing wealth inequality gap.

    • Re:Political (Score:4, Interesting)

      by DethLok ( 2932569 ) on Monday January 27, 2020 @03:12AM (#59659684)

      From their actual site's FAQ:

      "Q: Isn’t the Doomsday Clock just a scare tactic used to advance a political agenda?

      A: Ensuring the survival of our societies and the human species is not a political agenda. Cooperating with other countries to achieve control of extremely dangerous technologies should not involve partisan politics. If scientists involved with the Bulletin are critical of current policies on nuclear weapons and climate change, it is because those policies increase the possibility of self-destruction.

      The Bulletin has moved the Clock hand away from midnight almost as often as it has moved it toward midnight, and as often during Republican administrations in the United States as during Democratic ones. It moved the hand farthest away in 1991, when US President George H.W. Bush’s administration signed the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty with the Soviet Union."

      As to your comment about the world being increasingly sane, that doesn't seem to be the opinion of political editors and columnists when discussing the increasing number of populist leaders in various countries around the world and their anti-science and anti-progress views.

  • by Arthur, KBE ( 6444066 ) on Sunday January 26, 2020 @06:41PM (#59658552)
    I don't there's any left there. This is a very anti-nuclear organization.
    • by blindseer ( 891256 ) <blindseer@@@earthlink...net> on Sunday January 26, 2020 @11:04PM (#59659114)

      This is a very anti-nuclear organization.

      Any organization that is opposed to nuclear power, like Bulletin of Atomic Scientists is opposed to nuclear power, is an organization that is opposed to solving the problem of CO2 emissions and the global warming that results from it.

      To lower CO2 emissions from human activity, and not destroy the economy, will require energy sources that have a high energy return on energy investment (EROEI), low requirements for raw materials and land, is a technology that exists in the here and now, is safe and affordable, and of course produces little CO2 compared to the energy produced.

      If we are going to replace coal and oil then the replacement should have an EROEI equal to or higher than coal and oil, which is about 30. At a minimum these energy sources would need to have an EROEI high enough to maintain our economy, which is estimated to be about 7. These energy sources are onshore windmills, hydroelectric dams, geothermal power, and nuclear fission reactors. Not on this list are solar PV cells, solar thermal power, and biomass fuels.

      Anyone advocating for solar power, offshore windmills, and ethanol or other biomass fuels, are not serious about solving the problem of global warming. Anyone that dismisses nuclear power as part of the solution to lower CO2 emissions is not serious either. Serious people will have taken the time to educate themselves on the solutions and be advocates for them.

      Bulletin of Atomic Scientists is not a serious organization, and they should not be taken seriously. If this was an organization of people trained in nuclear science and engineering then they'd be discussing the means on how to solve the problems of nuclear weapons proliferation, radioactive waste from nuclear power and other sources, safety of nuclear power, and the expense of nuclear power, as opposed to what they are doing now which is to claim these problems cannot be solved.

      • by jemmyw ( 624065 )
        While I agree with you about nuclear I'm not sure you have the correct calculations. I looked up offshore wind and found https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/07/26/eroi-of-offshore-wind/ which probably isn't accurate, but I've also read before from other sources that it's pretty good in terms of returns.
  • That dude is a squid man. I don't think I need to tell you what happens when one of them hits you in the head
  • by Dirk Becher ( 1061828 ) on Sunday January 26, 2020 @06:56PM (#59658580)

    Just to make clear they are SERIOUS.

  • Hmmm.... (Score:5, Insightful)

    by burtosis ( 1124179 ) on Sunday January 26, 2020 @06:56PM (#59658582)
    I starting to think that the doomsday clock is an exercise in teaching Zeno’s dichotomy paradox. Is there a limit to how many times it can be moved half way to midnight?
    • I starting to think that the doomsday clock is an exercise in teaching Zenoâ(TM)s dichotomy paradox. Is there a limit to how many times it can be moved half way to midnight?

      Ten years from now, the headline will read, "The Doomsday Clock Has Just Reached 100 Microseconds Before Midnight!"

  • The Despondent Mind (Score:3, Interesting)

    by Delicious Pun ( 3864033 ) on Sunday January 26, 2020 @07:06PM (#59658604)
    An interesting read: https://www.scientificamerican... [scientificamerican.com]
    • by Brett Buck ( 811747 ) on Sunday January 26, 2020 @07:28PM (#59658664)

      That is an interesting article. I have noticed the same thing, particularly in the last 25 years or so. The world is *a vastly safer, healthier, and wealthier" place for almost everyone, compared to when I was growing up. I have always been known as a pessimist, and even I have to admit things are, in general, much better. I think a lot of the doom and gloom is that people have lost perspective on what "bad" used to mean. Many people have never lived in any significant danger of anything bad happening to them, so they have to concoct disaster scenarios in their minds.

      • by Pinky's Brain ( 1158667 ) on Sunday January 26, 2020 @08:01PM (#59658714)

        The past was a time of plenty, things might have been shitty but the road to progress was obvious. People never needed any cornupian crutches, they simply saw enough of everything as long as they raised their productivity to take it.

        Now it's becoming a world of making do. Technical analysis and cornupian crutches such as substitution just aren't as hope inspiring as a wide open world for the taking.

        • The past was a time of plenty, things might have been shitty but the road to progress was obvious.

          I am not sure what you are talking about. By almost any measure, there is *vastly* more available to everyone, for almost no effort expended, than there was in, say, the 60's. To the point that there is hardly any good reason to make more. People live in incredible luxury and safety, even the "poor", at least in any modern civilzation. The biggest problem the western world has in the

  • by david.emery ( 127135 ) on Sunday January 26, 2020 @07:12PM (#59658614)

    as PETA is to animal rescue. It's more about the media sluts than about the underlying problem.

    Having lived through a lot of the Cold War, it's just not credible to me that we're closer to nuclear annihilation than, for example, when that Soviet officer saw indications of an American nuclear launch, or the US guy hung an exercise tape on the operational/real world tape drive and Cheyenne Mountain reported a massive Soviet strike. It's not even clear to me who besides the US could even launch a significant nuclear strike/counter-strike. I suspect the Russian strategic rocket forces are in pretty poor shape.

    • by EmagGeek ( 574360 ) on Sunday January 26, 2020 @07:16PM (#59658628) Journal

      THIS.

      Absolutely. THIS.

      I grew up in the 70's and 80's and I couldn't agree with you more. The risks back then were far more real than they are today. As prosperous as the world is right now there is just really no chance that someone is going to push the button.

      • THIS.

        Absolutely. THIS.

        I grew up in the 70's and 80's and I couldn't agree with you more. The risks back then were far more real than they are today. As prosperous as the world is right now there is just really no chance that someone is going to push the button.

        Anyone with younger kids? Do they still train them to "Duck and Cover"? Or is it all about school shooters now?

        • Children know nothing about anything outside their classrooms anymore. They do the shooter drills, yes. It's been since before I was in school we did hide from nuke drills. Not because when I was a kid the risk was low. Quite the contrary the risk was extremely high. But because in my case we lived 3 miles from a major military target. We were well inside the inner circle of destruction for the storm of 50 megaton weapons targeting that base. My entire city would have been vaporized.

          Some child's stu
        • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

          They still duck and cover, it's just now it has an actual chance of helping.

        • Duck and Cover hasn't been a thing in a long time - I was going through school in the heyday of Ronnie Reagan when everyone thought he was going to burn us to ash, and we didn't even do that shit then, because everyone knew it was stupid.

          Megaton-class weapons don't give a fuck if you're hiding behind a shitty little wood school desk, and neither does the school that just collapsed on you in the overpressure wave. Duck and Cover was simply to give people something to do so they would feel better about "bein

      • Growing up in a small town near San Diego there was a weekly air raid siren test audible for miles. My elementary school had heavy drapes to cover a wall of windows when watching a movie. We had duck and cover drills that no seven year old could understand, curled up under a desk. SD was a major port for the Navy and Miramar Air Station was nearby. There was a Naval radio station that could broadcast 1/2 way around the world and other smaller training and support See Camp Mattthews. https://en.wikipedia.or [wikipedia.org]
    • by NagrothAgain ( 4130865 ) on Sunday January 26, 2020 @08:16PM (#59658750)
      Exactly. Any "clock" that puts us closer to nuclear annihilation than we were during the Cuban Missile Crisis is a load of horseshit. This whole bit about "global warming is coming... eventually... and might result in wars... maybe... which might result in the use of nukes. Quick, PANIC!" is fearmongering of the worst sort.
  • It's a breakdown of the status quo problem.

    Countries in the Russian sphere of influence trying to align themselves with EU/Nato (with a little "NG"O help pushing them this way or that). China wanting to make some mineral-raum grabs in the ocean and get the political/technological/military power to finally take Taiwan. Population pressure destabilizing the Middle East and Africa.

    Talking will not resolve these things. Lets hope we fluke through this, not optimistic.

  • Dicks (Score:5, Insightful)

    by viperidaenz ( 2515578 ) on Sunday January 26, 2020 @07:33PM (#59658680)

    Way to make it completely irrelevant by combining two unrelated things into one value.

    • I guess you have never done that. The other day I bought bananas and lightbulbs. The minumum wage cashier seemed to have no problem calculating a single number for those unrelated items.

      • Epically wrong. The price of bananas and light bulbs don't drive events. Events drive the price of bananas and light bulbs.
        • So riots caused by banana prices going up 400% is a non-event? Please hand in your scout badges for elementary math, simple logic, and basic cognitive function.

    • Including "climate change" renders the clock pointless because it'll ALWAYS be next to midnight. What a waste.

  • I'm having difficulty understanding why they're representing a threat/danger level, i.e. something which increases & decreases irregularly over time, on a timekeeping device, i.e. something that moves in one direction at a constant rate. Watchmen didn't come out until 1986, so couldn't be an homage to Alan Moore.
  • This is politics, not science

  • The trouble with the doomsday clock is that it's only when it moves closer to midnight than we are familiar with that it draws interest and eyeballs.

    Ok, so if you're in charge of the clock you're probably there because you're deeply concerned about risks facing the world. But the only way it seems like one has any influence at all is by advancing the hands ever closer to midnight.

    I mean would any of us have seen the story: Doomsday clock moves from 11:50 to 11:52? So it's inevitable that it doesn't accur

  • by blindseer ( 891256 ) <blindseer@@@earthlink...net> on Sunday January 26, 2020 @08:33PM (#59658800)

    I've found it difficult to take these people seriously, especially now that they added global warming into their calculations on the Doomsday Clock. They can't simply admit that the threat of nuclear war is next to nothing. Since that threat has disappeared they had to think of something to stay relevant. What did they come up with for that? Global warming.

    What's the best means to lower CO2 emissions that have lead to global warming? Nuclear power. For "atomic scientists" this should be clear on how nuclear power can lower our dependence on coal and oil for energy. But they can't admit to this after 50 years of talking about how nuclear anything is bad.

    In any hospital of a certain size in the world there will be a department called "nuclear medicine" or something similar. We rely on nuclear medicine for the treatment and diagnosis of a number of medical conditions. The material for this comes from nuclear reactors. Also from these nuclear reactors comes isotopes vital for scientific discovery. There would not be a space program right now without nuclear technology. These people, these overly educated idiots, think we can just walk away from nuclear power. It's because of nuclear power that we have affordable energy, and so many consumer products from lighted watch faces to smoke detectors. Nuclear technology is how we reached the abundance, wealth, and safety we enjoy today. We simply cannot go back.

    If these "atomic scientists" are to be taken seriously on anything, especially on global warming, then they need to embrace nuclear power and all that we can gain from it. We will not be able to sustain our economy without nuclear power. These "atomic scientists" should be fully aware of this.

    I'll believe that global warming is an existential crisis when politicians and "atomic scientists" start acting like it. That means cutting the bullshit and building nuclear power plants. That is not a claim that global warming is a hoax, it is a claim that it is not an immediate threat to human civilization. Again, if this were an immediate threat then the politicians would be acting like it.

    Everyone needs to calm down. The seas are not going to boil next Tuesday. We are not going to burst into flames and then drown in the rising seas. We are going to come to realize that we need nuclear power, and we are going to build more nuclear power plants. After that we will see our CO2 emissions begin to fall.

    We got this.

  • Whatever guys. I'm going back to bed.

  • Time, or at least history is roughly linear. With Trump, doomsday is a quantum function.

  • The Doomsday Clock is in the news again. (Yawn.)

    Been a while since I re-read The Watchmen [wikimedia.org].

  • Peak Doom and Gloom (Score:4, Informative)

    by flyingfsck ( 986395 ) on Sunday January 26, 2020 @10:57PM (#59659100)
    We have reached Peak Doom and Gloom.

    The Doomsday clock faded when the American Cold War ended and children ceased to be taught how to hide under their desks. The Soviet Union never was so stupid about it.

    Now the clock is so overshadowed by the Climate Change Autistic Preachers of Doom and Gloom, that it has lost all relevance.

    Repent, Repent, The End is Nigh!!!
  • by PPH ( 736903 ) on Monday January 27, 2020 @12:39AM (#59659410)

    And here I thought it was almost lunch time.

  • Dooms Day Clock! (Score:4, Informative)

    by oldgraybeard ( 2939809 ) on Monday January 27, 2020 @03:35AM (#59659698)
    I served in USAF SAC during the cold war. We were past the years of resources in the air. But were locked and loaded with crews in the silos and alert bunkers 24/7/365. Closer to midnight my ass!!

    It is truly unfortunate that history is no longer valued or taught. Because that means we need to make all the old mistakes again. Fight and win the old battles/wars again. Socialism ;) lol

    Just my 2 cents ;)

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