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Tesla Short Sellers Actually Made Over $1 Billion After Musk's Taking-Private Tweet (fortune.com) 329

An anonymous reader quotes Fortune: Investors betting that Tesla stock will lose value -- so-called "shorts" -- have made $1.2 billion since CEO Elon Musk first tweeted about taking the company private. Much of that gain came on Friday, after the New York Times published a revealing, emotional interview with Musk that drove Tesla stock down nearly 9%. The tally comes from a report released Friday by stock analytics firm S3 Partners. The Friday collapse helped reverse a price spike after Musk's August 7 Tweet saying he was "considering taking Tesla private at $420," about 18% higher than the stock's market value at the time.

According to S3, the subsequent surge in Tesla stock cost short positions $1.3 billion. But soon after, it became clear that Musk had exaggerated the certainty of his funding, and the SEC began a probe of his statements, driving the stock back down. On Friday, the Times interview with Musk detailed his 120-hour work weeks, lack of social life, and reliance on Ambien to sleep. That sent the stock down 9% in one day, for a total drop of 19% over 10 days. That gave $2.5 billion back to the shorts, for a net gain of $1.2 billion since Musk's going-private tweet.

Tesla remains the most-shorted stock on the American stock exchanges, and the researchers note that only 4% of shorts have actually cashed in these on-paper gains.
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Tesla Short Sellers Actually Made Over $1 Billion After Musk's Taking-Private Tweet

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  • Only If They Covered (Score:5, Interesting)

    by crow ( 16139 ) on Saturday August 18, 2018 @08:27PM (#57151898) Homepage Journal

    Has the short interest in Tesla decreased? If so, then shorts have cashed out, having a much better position than a week ago. But I'm not under the impression that the shorts have been exiting. It seems that there is a large contingent that really expects Tesla to outright fail, and they want to ride the stock down to zero.

    There is a contingent that deeply wants to see Tesla fail because they view it as part of the environmental movement, and they see the whole movement as a leftist attack on free enterprise and their way of life. A company like Tesla being successful is counter to their worldview, and they desperately want to see electric cars fail. I have no evidence to prove that there's a connection to the Tesla shorts, but I suspect there is. I suppose that's part of the reason I so desperately want to see the shorts get bankrupted.

    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      BS. Shorts don't care about the "environmental movement". You guys are nuts: Tesla isn't "green". They are producing $60,000+ EVs! Are you out of your mind? There are other manufacturers who are actually producing affordable EVs. Why not invest in them? It is like you guys are brainwashed. The only thing shorts care about is making money. Tesla is priced way too high. It isn't personal. He isn't attacking your god.
    • There is a contingent that deeply wants to see Tesla fail because they view it as part of the environmental movement, and they see the whole movement as a leftist attack on free enterprise and their way of life. A company like Tesla being successful is counter to their worldview, and they desperately want to see electric cars fail. I have no evidence to prove that there's a connection to the Tesla shorts, but I suspect there is. I suppose that's part of the reason I so desperately want to see the shorts get

    • by quantaman ( 517394 ) on Sunday August 19, 2018 @10:48AM (#57154186)

      Has the short interest in Tesla decreased? If so, then shorts have cashed out, having a much better position than a week ago. But I'm not under the impression that the shorts have been exiting. It seems that there is a large contingent that really expects Tesla to outright fail, and they want to ride the stock down to zero.

      There is a contingent that deeply wants to see Tesla fail because they view it as part of the environmental movement, and they see the whole movement as a leftist attack on free enterprise and their way of life. A company like Tesla being successful is counter to their worldview, and they desperately want to see electric cars fail. I have no evidence to prove that there's a connection to the Tesla shorts, but I suspect there is. I suppose that's part of the reason I so desperately want to see the shorts get bankrupted.

      It's nothing that conspiratorial. Tesla [yahoo.com] has a bigger market cap than GM [yahoo.com]. I mean Tesla has a cooler brand, and they're currently dominating the EV market, but GM builds almost 100x as many cars, has about 15x the revenue (not sure how that math works), and has an operating income almost as large as Tesla's total revenue.

      Sure Tesla has some serious potential around self driving cars and EV, but so does GM.

      The idea that Tesla is worth more is just plain dumb. People are pricing it like an Apple or a Google, but car companies don't get those giant semi-monopolies that generate outrageous profits the way tech companies do. Tesla becoming as big as GM is their potential, but there's a good chance they won't reach that potential.

      I don't trade stocks, but I can understand why people would short Tesla, it can't really go any higher and you have to think as some point it's going to go down.

      • by crow ( 16139 ) on Sunday August 19, 2018 @12:00PM (#57154546) Homepage Journal

        Yes, Tesla is priced like a tech company. Or more specifically, it's priced like a growth company. Automakers are like the weather: the best forecast for tomorrow is that it will be the same as today. Sometimes they do better, sometimes the do worse, but people don't generally expect them to make huge changes in their market share.

        Tesla is growing rapidly. While traditional auto makers are constrained by sales, as evidenced by factories operating below capacity and massive marketing campaigns, Tesla is constrained by manufacturing, as evidenced by massive reservations and no significant marketing efforts.

        Tesla also has their energy business, which is also constrained by capacity. They've proven the value of utility-scale battery storage in Australia and elsewhere. The potential growth here is huge.

        The Tesla solar business is less clear. Personally I think the visual stigma with traditional solar panels has passed as home solar has become more common, so most people who want solar are happy with regular panels. Outside of historical districts and the like, I'm not sure how large their solar roof market will prove to be once they reach full production.

        But back to cars, they're looking at a production rate of 500,000 Model 3s next year. They're also going to be starting production of the Semi and announcing the pickup and Model Y next year. Their growth could easily reach over a million vehicles a year as quickly as they can build the factories, probably two million or more.

        And don't ignore their Supercharger network. Tesla is the only option for road trips. Independent charging networks are focusing on the higher-density markets (i.e., California), though that may improve a bit over the next decade, but without support from auto manufacturers, they price charging well above what Tesla charges. In short, most people are happy buying an electric car as a second vehicle, but only consider Tesla if looking for an electric vehicle as their first car.

        I don't see any other manufacturer providing serious competition for Tesla in the next five years, which will let them continue to grow rapidly to become a major player in the industry.

        The short story seems to boil down to "Elon Musk is lying about Tesla being profitable for Q3 and Q4 this year." If they are profitable, then the story that they're going to run out of cash before being able to expand as described above falls apart.

  • by Snufu ( 1049644 ) on Saturday August 18, 2018 @08:40PM (#57151946)

    both the short sellers and the flip speculators for their contribution to improving society. If enough people dedicate their lives to short term stock market speculation, most of the world's pressing problems will soon be a thing of the past.

    • Re: (Score:2, Troll)

      by inking ( 2869053 )
      The shorts are literally the only group who has an economic interest in scrutinizing an asset. Without this kind of rigor you get more money being thrown at fantastic enterprises like Theranos. Nobody cares that they are holding lemons as long as the price keeps rising. So, yeah, I don’t know what “flip speculators” are, but short sellers are very much beneficial to the market’s well-being and by extension our resource allocation as a society.
      • by Tom ( 822 )

        The shorts are literally the only group who has an economic interest in scrutinizing an asset.

        That's a total bullshit statement.

        Any investor has an interest in doing that, because even if you assume that in general the economy will go up, so long is always profitable, it doesn't mean that a) this specific company is not bancrupt next year or b) it isn't growing slower than some other stock that you could put your money in or c) it isn't growing slower than the inflation rate.

        Without this kind of rigor you get more money being thrown at fantastic enterprises like Theranos.

        Says who?

        Nobody cares that they are holding lemons as long as the price keeps rising.

        But the price doesn't rise by magic. Plus, see above. Also, opportunity costs.

        short sellers are very much beneficial to the marketâ(TM)s well-being and by extension our resource allocation as a society.

        Short sellers have their place.

        Speculat

        • by inking ( 2869053 )
          (I am not going to engage in this tree of quotes battle. Address the key argument and don’t waste our time. I also still don’t know what “speculators” we are talking about.)

          That is all fantastic layman common sense argumentation that is so distant from the lived reality we could put it in the science fiction section of Slashdot. The fact that longs are perpetually euphoric about whatever it is they longing to the point that investment bankers have to account for a certain amount o
        • by djinn6 ( 1868030 )
          The number of people who actually evaluate the stocks they buy is minimal. By far the largest investments are retirement funds, many of which are unmanaged. Every person with a retirement account is putting a few hundred dollars every month towards all stocks. Now multiply it by a few hundred million people and you have a recipe for extremely overvalued stocks.
  • by ayesnymous ( 3665205 ) on Sunday August 19, 2018 @12:52AM (#57152660)
    Given that TSLA is only about 15% off it's all time high, the vast majority of shorts are still losing money right now. It's not like all those shorts shorted within 10% of it's all time high.
    • Tesla's 52-week high was $389. As of Friday's close it was at $305; which means it is more like 22% off its all time high.

      Which means your "15%" is only off by 50% or so.

  • by DrXym ( 126579 ) on Sunday August 19, 2018 @01:06AM (#57152714)
    He whines about shorters and decides to stick it then with a half assed tweet about going private. This earns him a class action and SEC investigation. And more short positions predicate on the outcome of both. On top of that he goes into an interview to explain what a fucked up life he's living at present. Talk about self inflicted. The funny part is it's not hard finding people defending him. Like that time when he calls a cave diver a pedo for ridiculing his submersible we saw people leaping to justify it. His support base is practically cult like in their support regardless of the stupidity of his actions. They perceive criticism of him as an attack on them.
    • You're spot on the money. He reminds me of a technocrat Donald Trump, and his superfans are like educated Trump voters, but somehow every bit as fucking stupid. And I say this loving Tesla the product.
    • Like that time when he calls a cave diver a pedo for ridiculing his submersible we saw people leaping to justify it.

      Please show me a single post where someone defended his language.

      I'm willing to be you saw the topic: "pedo cave diver", saw a positive post, and then made up your own narrative about it.

  • If somebody loses 1B, somebody else is gaining it.

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