Why Sony Won't Lose The Next-Gen War 228
GamesDaily has up an opinion piece, talking about why author James Brightman sees Sony walking away with the next-gen crown, again. From the article: "Sony is well aware of the power of its brand and it will do everything it can to leverage the PlayStation name. Providing backwards compatibility with both the PS1 and PS2, as well as offering full PS1 titles for download through the PS3, can only help to reinforce that brand and remind gamers of the PlayStation games they hold so dear. Selling over 100 million units, twice, has its advantages. In fact, there are a number of people who have probably owned nothing but PlayStation consoles, and those consumers are likely to stick with a brand they know and trust. Before they've even learned anything about Sony's new console, many consumers have already made up their minds that they want the next PlayStation no matter what. A strong brand should not be underestimated." Relatedly, the company released a few more details on its online plan via its Japanese office. That article touches on AV chat, a puzzle games service, and downloadable games.
Leaning on the name? (Score:5, Insightful)
A strong brand. (Score:4, Insightful)
Time (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:Boycott (Score:1, Insightful)
Lose, win... what does that mean? (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:A strong brand. (Score:2, Insightful)
Ford could be an example, but you can't look at Ford today. You have to look at Ford in the 70s, when the price of gas went through the roof and pollution regulations were introduced. Their response was to stick with old technology and muddle around with smaller, less powerful engines. GM's response was to introduce a new Cadillac that got 8 mpg on the freeway. They ignored the wants and needs of their customers completely.
The question is, is Sony ignoring the wants of their customers with the PS3. We can't say yet.
Re:And once the fans realize..... (Score:1, Insightful)
Re:Leaning on the name? (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Leaning on the name? (Score:3, Insightful)
1) It's too expensive
and
2) Sony suxxorz!
It remains to be seen how much the price will drag down mainstream sales. I think Sony will come out with a smaller marketshare this time around, but I'm not Microsoft and Nintendo have what it takes to win out. In theory, the graphics will be noticeably worse on the Wii and 360 won't have the children's games. Each of the consoles in this generation has it's down sides, all that's left is to see which one wins in the marketplace.
Re:Well.. everybody has an opinion... (Score:3, Insightful)
Let's dispense with the ad homs, AC. They're not necessary. In case you don't know what I mean, please do a google search of 'ad hom'.
You want to talk numbers? Let's talk.
Did Microsoft lose money on the XBox? Hell yes. Did they fully well know that they would? YES. In fact, they were certain they would lose money on them. But that didn't matter because it bought Microsoft valuable entrance into the console market. Which they have now used to position themselves against Sony in a way nobody thought they would be able to. They have sold over 10 million 360s as of today. How many PS3s has Sony sold? Zero. In the next-gen war, Microsoft is clearly way ahead right now.
But what happens when the PS3 is released? Does Sony suddenly sell 100 million PS3s? Not in the USA. Not a single person I know is excited enough to go out and immediately fork over $600 USD for a PS3. They are wary of Sony's first run systems. They often ship with problems and need to be returned. Add to this that PS3 graphical performance hasn't been shown to exceed the 360 by any real noticable amount and you have what could be a very slow launch for the PS3.
People simply aren't very excited for the PS3 where I live. And I happen to think that it's indicative of a greater trend.
But it's pointless to argue really, until the PS3 is released.
TLF
Re:Leaning on the name? (Score:1, Insightful)
Re:Leaning on the name? (Score:5, Insightful)
A brand can help, but in the end, it all comes down to the games. It's really that simple. The PS3 is going to need some really high-end exclusive games to match its high-end price tag, but if they can build up a solid library, they'll do fine. I don't think they'll dominate as forcefully as they did with the PS2, but they'll end up making some money, and life will go on.
Re:Well.. everybody has an opinion... (Score:3, Insightful)
Do you expect that argument to have any credibility in the context you put it in? DO you realize how vastly unprofitable the Xbox was? And that's what you're holding up to say that the Zune has a chance in hell?
Have a look at this graph [photobucket.com]. It shows console sales over time where t0 is the release date for each console. Now go rethink your argument.
Contestable (Score:2, Insightful)
That said, his opinion is highly contestable.
The Brand
I would have thought that his comparing the ubiquitous association of Sony's brand now to Nintendo's ubiquitous association then would have given him reason to say why Sony won't repeat Nintendo's failure. He failed to account for it at all.
Nintendo had a greater than 60% market share with the SNES, with the rest divided between the Turbo Grafix 16 and the Sega Genesis. The next generation they barely managed 20%. They had as much if not more brand at the time than Sony, a console that was cheaper than the others, and innovations to boot. They were destroyed rather thoroughly.
Microsoft (somewhat) Squandered its Lead
Microsoft did squander their lead a bit. With more volume at launch they'd probably be further ahead. The point he makes is that Microsoft's Xbox 360 has had a somewhat "Meh" reception. However, that reception is as likely caused by a general "Meh" at HD stuff in general that will burn Sony as much as Microsoft as it is a pure Microsoft bias. Only time will tell.
Japan is Ripe for the Taking
That it is. He makes a good argument for why Japan is anyone's game. Unfortunately I can't really find much worth in his arguments as to how the PS3 is going to take Japan. While there will surely be more than the 100k initial launch shipments as time passes, that's hardly enough to secure a lead in Japan. This is downplayed by the author, nothing some very desireable games that the Japanese will want. The possibility that Japanese and other gamers may be at all discouraged by the difficulty in getting PS3s isn't even addressed.
There's a token paragraph for the Wii, and I call it token rightly. To assume this a largely Xbox vs PS3 a article does not seem far off, or perhaps Xbox vs anyone else. It may be that the Wii just isn't worth commenting on because no one has any doubts as to how well it will do, while Sony breeds skepticism with each new press release. It's hard to tell.
Regardless, there is no mention of the vastly greater Wii supplies, the far cheaper price, or the general thrashing the PSP got at the DS's twin screens. This leads into a statement that skirts the possible competition between the two Japanese companies. If you're going to write an article about why Sony isn't going to lose to Microsoft, specify that in your title. Otherwise, glossing over Nintendo seems fishy.
Blue-ray Will Matter
A good point to be made here is that if Blue-ray takes off, it's likely to make the manufacturing of PS3s cheaper. With more people working to make Blue Lasers, they'll be understandably cheaper. The opposite being true if the format fails as a movie format.
Bringing up the current and forecasted adoption rates for HDTV probably wouldn't have aided the article any, but again Nintendo seems glossed over in favor of Microsoft vs Sony. I realize Nintendo has intentionally put themselves out of direct competition for HD gamers, but that doesn't mean they aren't competing this generation.
Free Online
Good, minus no mention (good or bad) of Nintendo's online services. Again, if this is about Microsoft vs Sony specifically, the title should have reflected that.
Final Thoughts
Firstly no one said winning three in a row was "impossible". The issue is historically, no one's lasted more than two generations without other A) completely destroying the industry or B) Dropping from near Monopoly to near Obscurity and Ridicule. There appears to be a red button labeled "Retarded" which gets pressed sometime before Launch #3.
If Sony manages to dominate again, good for them. They'll have earned it through games and services that make us happy, possibly reearning the trust they've burned these p
You know, guys, its not going to be $600 forever (Score:2, Insightful)
My point is the war isn't won at launch. Its won when the system has lots of GOOD games for it, and they become cheap. When production becomes cheap so the manufacturer makes a profit off it. When the console becomes cheap enough to be able to buy another one, just as a backup. When developers are able to program for the blasted thing, without spending a billion dollars over 3 years.
We've got years of this to come. I don't think I can stand any more of the speculation. I just wanna play some games!
Critics not readin article (Score:4, Insightful)
"certain PS3 launch games (e.g. Resistance: Fall of Man) already look as good as the best Xbox 360 has to offer. In one to two years, we think the combination of the Blu-ray medium and the Cell processor will lead to a noticeable difference between the visuals of the PS3 and the Xbox 360, as developers begin to really harness the technology in the PS3. And by that time the PS3 won't be retailing for $500 or $600 anymore. Nintendo may not care about hi-def graphics, but in the ultra-tech battle between Microsoft and Sony, it's beginning to look like Sony has the edge."
People have said you can always just use multiple DVD's on the 360, but really that is way more clunky and drastically reduces profits for manufacturers. The extra storage space will be useful to PS3 developers, as it is even at launch. I'm not sure why people discount this as an advantage for Sony, given that the game developers have expressed displeasure with the 360's anemic storage and we can see right before our eyes that it is being used.
Another point was about the online service:
"With the inclusion of free online play, publishers know that anybody in the PS3's install base can go online. Not only does that automatically encourage developers to make use of online functionality, but it also could have important ramifications with regards to in-game ads that are streamed online. All of a sudden the potential audience for these ads is that much bigger, while on the 360 publishers of online titles with streamed in-game ads will still be limited to the number of Xbox Live Gold subscribers. Ultimately, we think that Microsoft will have no choice but to go free as well (perhaps with some ad-supported scheme with the help of MS-owned Massive Inc.), even if it's not for another couple years."
Free online play is a big draw for us computer gamers who were leery of a recurring fee to play online. It makes buying console versions of games more acceptable rather than just waiting for a PC version of some things.
But fundamentally the point here is that making it so that every console owner can easily be online means that game makers may well focus even more on the quality of online play, just as including a hard drive in every console gives freedom to game developers in use of system resources. The PS3 has a more expansive list of things the developer can assume exist for every player:
*) Hard drive
*) Match service/online play
*) Large storage capacity
*) Motion detection
Any one of those items alone does not guarantee a great game. But each one of them opens up new avenues for developers and can enable them to make a great game they might not have been able to make otherwise.
Re:The entrenched system has a huge advantage (Score:3, Insightful)
It's really too early to know how the market will take it. Gaming news sites really don't have their finger on the pulse of the market, in my opinion.
This article headline proves the contrary (Score:3, Insightful)
And now, today, what we have? An article trying to prove why "Sony won't lose the war?". Maybe it won't "lose the war", but it has cleary lost *something*.
3rd Party Wii-mote Devices (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:What about $500 then? (Score:2, Insightful)
There's also been a few articles saying that the majority of PS3s being produced are the $600 model. There might be no choice between the $500 model and the $600 model. Something tells me that unlike the 360, the less expensive model will be the more popular. If, after launch, the $600 model is being snatched up at a higher rate than the $500 model, there's going to be a lot of people (me included) that are going to be eating their own words.
We know the fanboys, early adapters, and people with simply too much money will buy it. We'll see about everyone else when it's released.
Re:Leaning on the name? (Score:2, Insightful)
No-one "needs" it, no. No matter how far into the future you project, you'll never get to the point where people point at pacman, defender, duke nukem, Battlefield 2, street fighter 2 etc and say `those games sucked - just imagine how good they'd have been if they'd been in 5000*5000 pixels`. Same with films - current DVD quality is fine with me. No new films ever made will require a higher quality than is capable of being stored on a regular DVD.
Re:What about $500 then? (Score:2, Insightful)
radioactive ps3s from NK. (Score:2, Insightful)
One major point here.
The economy is due for a massive slow down, that will last along time during 07-09 due to rising inflation and oil prices and possible
full scale wars and massive climate change reducing food supplies causing more price rises in staples. Add to that rising interest costs
and dropping house prices killing peoples equity. www.financialsense.com - all the info you need.
So... peoples debts go up, prices rise, they have less to spend on stuff. Sure there will be lots of rich people still able
to afford ps3s, like IT profs, and people with little debt, or people with rich ass parents that are 250k manager, or people
in lazy govt jobs that pay well for 34hrs a week.
But out of millions and millions, many man many more will only barely be able to scrape through to buy a Wii, its small
, not power hungry, kids will love it too, and hardcore gamers should be happy with it too (unless they have a 42" lcd hdtv)
Being smaller, nintendo can ship more units per shipping container and truck or train or back of a bicycle in china, oh and
more chineese can afford it too.
Sure, maybe in 2 years sony can make 1million a month, but not today, and if nintendo can push out 20m in 12months, then they
have a leg up.
If you can only put five ps3s in a shop per week, thats not a success, even if you have a queue of 200 people wanting to buy, if half
of them get bored and watch a Wii in the shop, and go.... hmm it looks ok, ahh its only 250, ill get it and decide on the ps3 in 2-3 months time
if I get bored, then its a snow ball effect of lost sales, or a fire ball of batteries effect?
Re:Of couse (Score:3, Insightful)