Console War Just Sony's Side Quest 106
Next Generation is running two pieces today about Sony's upcoming console. In 'Console War a Side Quest for Sony?', they examine an analyst report suggesting that the company is more interested in winning the movie format war than in taking the lead on this generation of consoles. They also have a piece wherein some industry figures weigh in on the PS3. From that article: "The impact will be enormous. Digital distribution will allow for new ways to generate excitement for these games - from being able to purchase new game packs that extend the life of gameplay and purchasing cool new items that make your character and experience unique, to the emphasis the consoles will showcase linear programming much like an iPod or OnDemand service does. With something like Steam, the entire console channel is avoided, and suddenly the game developer is selling directly to a consumer.
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console war (Score:1, Insightful)
Everything I've read about the PS3 makes it sound like a power house. Sony is claiming it's supposed to last double the time of the PS2 (5 years) so this console is meant to last 10 years. So that means that they won't release another console for 10 years. With that much confidence, they think they won the console war.
Re:console war (Score:2)
Re:console war (Score:1)
Re:console war (Score:1)
If you define "lasting" as "some units are shipped to stores and the occassional token game gets released"...
Re:console war (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:console war (Score:2)
I guess Sony is hoping that programmers will increase their use of dynamic LOD to replace some of the GPU work wit
Re:console war (Score:4, Insightful)
The PS2 has already been on the market for six years and will likely remain on the market for some time after the PS3 is released (just as the PS1 was on the market for some time after the PS2 was released). The PS1 also lasted almost exactly ten years from its original launch date to the date production stopped.
I think that this whole "five year cycle" thing is a little confused to begin with. Most successful consoles last well beyond that artificial limit. The NES/Famicom was on the market from 1983-2003 - 20 years. The Intellivision was on the market for 11 years. The Atari 2600 was on the market for around 15 years. The PS1 lasted ten. I could go on and on.
In addition, it's very rare that all console manufacturers launch systems in the same year. For example, the Sega Genesis was released in 1989, with the SNES launching in 1991. The Atari 2600 launched in 1977, the Intellivision in 1980, the Coleco Vision in 1982 and the NES in 1985. Some of these systems then went on to stay on the market for years afterwards. Where are the "generational" lines there? Even nowadays, the Dreamcast launched in 1999, the PS2 launched in 2000 and the Xbox in 2001 - even as the PS1 stuck around. The Xbox 360 launched in 2005 and the PS3 and Wii will launch in 2006. So it's really hard to divide the timeline up into these five-year chunks. It's a much more organic industry than a lot of people seem to realize - consoles stay on the market for as long as they're profitable, whether that's two years or 20.
Where I think the five year cycle came from is hardcore gamers who may themselves only consider a system relevant as long as it's the latest and greatest thing. (It's also an unfortunate fact that a lot of systems popular with the hardcore crowd - like the Sega Saturn and Dreamcast - die early deaths.) But that's not the way the market or industry works as a whole. Hardcore gamers wouldn't have considered buying an Atari 2600 in 1990, but it was out there. Same with the PS1 in 2004.
And same, probably, with the PS2 in 2007 and the PS3 in 2015. I don't think Sony's out of bounds in making that sort of prediction. If Atari can take a console that was underpowered to begin with and sell it from 1977-1991 - through the crash of 1983-1984, no less - why can't Sony do something similar with the PS3?
Nah PS2 will "Last" For ten years (Score:2)
Re:Nah PS2 will "Last" For ten years (Score:1)
The PS2 is gay?... why wasn't I notified?!!!!!
Re:console war (Score:1)
It's all marketing tripe, Sony excel at it. The PS2 had its "Emotion Engine" which was supposed to produce photo-realistic graphics, then the console came out and it was good, but not mind-
I don't give a damn what anyone else says... (Score:2)
Then again, maybe it's good that I retain a social life for a while longer...
Re:I don't give a damn what anyone else says... (Score:2, Insightful)
The Nintendo Revolution / Wii looks interesting, but at the price it's apparently going to enter the market at, I can afford both a PS3 and Nintendo's offering. Despite the usual marketing hype and various predicitions from market analysts, I still think t
I think it is going to be a DS vs PSP (Score:3, Interesting)
The PSP on the other astounds graphically. Very nice indeed. GTA Vice City is amazing that that can be played in your hand. Pity the hardware is so cheap (pixel problems), the interface is kinda bad (the joystick just isn't a joystick) and a lot
When you close your DS, it enters sleep mode (Score:2)
Then again, the PSP has one mobile advantage over the DS. Safe anywhere. Just briefly switch off the power and resume where you left off when you power back on.
Have you ever closed your DS, come back an hour later, and opened it up to the exact same spot?
Compared with Nintendo Animal Crossing slow slow save it shows that Nintendo can still learn a thing or two.
When the PSP writes a 256 KB file to the Memory Stick, is it any faster?
Re:When you close your DS, it enters sleep mode (Score:2)
Yes, 256K is nothing whatsoever. PSP writes to MS at between 1.5-4MB/s, depending on the speed of card used.
That is sleep mode (Score:3, Interesting)
As for speed of writing and reading. No competition. Nintendo has chosen not to have onboard save. That no doubt saves them money meaning that Nintendo makes a profit on a cheaper console but now the save file has to be in the
Sleep mode lasts for days (Score:1)
The PSP is OFF while the DS remains on. Consuming less power to be sure but still draining the battery. The really big difference? If power fails because of an empty battery the PSP can resume where it left off as if nothing has happened. The DS loses its progress.
How long are you away from AC power anyway? And have you timed how long it takes from entering DS sleep mode on a full charge to empty battery? "Nintendo DS" on Wikipedia [wikipedia.org] claims that sleep mode lasts for "a few hundred hours" (that is, at leas
Are you kidding me? (Score:2)
Not true. The PSP, if left in sleep mode, will die out. It still periodically refreshes its RAM, even if the cores are turned off entirely. I own(ed) a PSP and left it sleeping. When it was totally dead (would not resume f
Re:I don't give a damn what anyone else says... (Score:2)
What news sites are *you* reading? It's already been confirmed that the PS3 has a worse GPU than the X360, and maybe even a worse CPU architecture. All Sony has going for them is their hype machine and whatever few franchises they can prevent from going multiplatform.
Re:I don't give a damn what anyone else says... (Score:2)
And Microsoft themselves are flirting with Rockstar. Hrmmmmmm.
Seems to be a big assumption (Score:2, Interesting)
Considering neither HD-DVD or Blu-Ray have been released, that's a big assumption. Personally I suspect (and hope) that the VHS vs Betamax war will still be in many people's minds, and both new formats will end up flopping. If that does happen, then WMS's own analysis suggests the PS3 may crash as well.
Re:Seems to be a big assumption (Score:1)
Re:Seems to be a big assumption (Score:1)
Re:Seems to be a big assumption (Score:2)
And the winner, when left standing will occupy such a small portion of marketshare that the war won't be worth the fighting.
Re:Seems to be a big assumption (Score:1)
First-mover Advantage?? (Score:3, Insightful)
The next gen console race is over. It has been over for months and months. Just like every other console market cycle. The battles are won and lost months to years before the actual hardware hits the shelves.
The 360 has sold a miserable 1.7 million consoles in its first six months on the market. That is the worst selling console since perhaps the 3DO a decade or so ago. The 360 is getting outsold by a wide margin by the six year old PS2 - and that was before Sony cut the price on the PS2. The 360 is completely dead in Japan. And the 360 is selling at half the rate of the US. The 360 is a walking corpse.
And Nintendo had a chance of selling N64 level numbers with the Revolution. In a week we will see if they pulled off the greatest marketing stunt in console history or simply committed marketplace suicide with a product named that brings to mind urine in English speaking countries.
Inane articles like the one referred to in the summary are almost cut and paste copies of Dreamcast/Pre-PS2 hitting the shelves era predictions. Don't worry, we only have another week to go and we won't have to read any more articles like these. The PS3 and Rev will be unveiled and reality will take over from journalistic fantasy.
The PS3 is in a vastly stronger, as incredible as that sounds, position than the PS2.
Re:First-mover Advantage?? (Score:3, Insightful)
A simple fact is that compared to foreign currencies the American dollar has droped to nearly 2/3 of its value (as compared to 2000); if this continues any longer Sony may have to sell the PS3 at $600-$700 to prevent themselves from losing too much money. Personally, I believe
Re:First-mover Advantage?? (Score:2)
Re:First-mover Advantage?? (Score:2)
Maybe 3 million shipped to stores, which might count as "sold to stores", and 1.7 million sold to customers. Of course, the ones on store shelves may be returned.
Re:First-mover Advantage?? (Score:1, Interesting)
Nov/Dec: 400k
Jan: 120k
Feb: 140k
March: 180k
April: Don't know yet
That puts them probably just over a million in the US with another month of sales. Certainly nowhere near the numbers Microsoft is claiming.
The numbers are humiliating when you compare them to the PS2 selling somewhere in the 250-300k a month range before the most recent price drop in the US which is supposed to be the 360's strongest market.
I wouldn't be surpri
Re:First-mover Advantage?? (Score:2)
Re:First-mover Advantage?? (Score:2)
Microsoft's numbers can't be trusted, they've manipulated, deceived and lied too often in the past. I'll trust numbers from them once they've been verified by a reliable source who is not being paid by Microsoft.
Re:First-mover Advantage?? (Score:2)
I predict Xbox 360 sales will surge near the PS3 release. Because then people will finally be able to see that the graphics are nearly identical (if not worse of the PS3 by a small margin).
Re:First-mover Advantage?? (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:First-mover Advantage?? (Score:2, Informative)
Microsoft will of course hit their meaningless ship numbers for the 360 even if they have to ship them from one business unit to another up in Redmond.
Sell through is all that matters. And the 360 actual sales numbers are utterly pathetic for its first five months.
The 360 might just be able to hit 2 million sold by mid-June. That is an unprecedented disaster in console market history.
Re:First-mover Advantage?? (Score:2)
Re:First-mover Advantage?? (Score:1)
The only thing that I can see as believable here, is that crappy supply has damaged any sales figure that anyone can claim as being legit.
Anyway, about the actual FA
The bottom line is, people won't buy the PS3 because "You'll be able to download packs for games, and all sorts of other distributable
Re:First-mover Advantage?? (Score:1)
Incorrect (Score:2, Interesting)
There are places where the xbox isn't even on shelves but it's more of a distribution and not a lack of supply issue.
Re:Incorrect (Score:2)
What's more, MS recently INCREASED their sales forecast for year end (June 30) from 4.5-5.5M to 5.0-5.5M. As of about now, they say they've shipped 1.8M in the US/Canada and 3.2M worldwide. 2M more in 2 months? Easy.
Re:Incorrect (Score:1)
Re:Incorrect (Score:1)
Re:Incorrect (Score:2)
Re:Incorrect (Score:1)
Re:First-mover Advantage?? (Score:2)
It has shipped 3.2 million [1up.com]. You're telling me almost half of that stock is unsold at retailers?
Re:First-mover Advantage?? (Score:1)
That is 3.2 million consoles shipped worldwide. There is a claim of 1.5-1.7 million or so of those being sold in America, but there has yet to be any confirmation. As of the end of the fourth quarter of 2005, the sales numbers for the 360 were 900,000 in America, 500,000 in Europe, and 100,000. Due to shortages in Europe and lack of interest in Japan, I personally don't think those numbers have not moved very much since the end of the fiscal quarter. MS Financial Report [microsoft.com]
For argument's sake, we could aproxi
Re:First-mover Advantage?? (Score:2)
I'm sorry, can you back that up a little? Basically every other console cycle has been a beat-down, dragged-out bloodbath. The SNES vs Genesis wars. The PS1 vs Saturn wars. I won't even get into Atari days. These were won and lost based upon the strength of games developed after the systems had shi
Well duh (Score:3, Informative)
Re:Well duh (Score:2)
Re:Trojan Horse? (Score:2)
I'm not so sure (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:I'm not so sure (Score:2)
UMD's were only playable on psp's (Score:2)
Re:I'm not so sure (Score:2)
Re:I'm not so sure (Score:2)
I don't have a clue what the market penetration numbers are for either format - digging up numbers will just turn up the number of units sold, but not number of households with units - but it's somewhat irrelevant. DVD had already been around for a few years when the PS2 launched, so DVD playback was just another feature to sell the system, but in the PS3's case the entire console is a loss-leader for the Blu-Ray format.
Micropayments :/ (Score:4, Insightful)
Let me be clear: I think micropayments definitely have a future (on consoles, as well as on the Net), but the way they are doing it now ; by making incomplete games at first, and then releasing items/gameplay-variations for money, is imho a complete rip off.
It's funny how this comment,
- The impact will be enormous. Digital distribution will allow for new ways to generate excitement for these games - from being able to purchase new game packs that extend the life of gameplay and purchasing cool new items that make your character and experience unique -
is describing game-mods in its purest form: But no, they won't open up the Marketplaces for third party mods, as it would snoop away from their own (unimaginative at least) by-products: And people would actually notice that paying 2 dollars for some random model is complete bullshit.
When the pre-Xbox360 hype was going on, it was mentioned a few times how MS would like to interact with the community (eg. hinting on being able to sell/offer (custom playercreated) content on Live), but the only interaction that I've seen until now is one-sided: MS offers, 'we' buy.
They really should have a look at how Valve's model of great mod/tool support has lead to -alot- more sales of Half-Life, as well as HL2.
Re:Micropayments :/ (Score:2)
I would mostly agree with you, but i would put some restriction to your statement.
Not all add-ons to games are rip-offs that should have been in the game originally.
Sure, you *WILL* find the $2 skinn or the new uber model with those cool sunglasses
Re:Micropayments :/ (Score:3, Insightful)
Or look at PC games that are given away for free, but which cost money for upgrades / etc. Imagine downl
Great (Score:2)
Sony Concentrates On Hardware (Score:2)
You're going to get a massively powerful piece of hardware (cell processor, 512 megs of ram, hd-addon, and a hdtv encoder, linux).
It's modding potential with linux is amazing.
What I would like to know (Score:1)
They're fighting a two front war of media, and they should have used the bigger brother to try and force through at least the umd aspect, even if it would be inferior on larger screens and such, they could have at least given the option and given people a little more incentive to pick up the media, instead of locking it into a psp.
Re:What I would like to know (Score:2)
You know something's wrong in the world... (Score:2)
World Domination Anyone?? (Score:2)
I honestly wouldn't be suprised if someday in the near future, Sony makes a move to supplant Microsoft in the home-based software business. They can do this either by purchasing a OS vendor such as Apple or one of the Linux Distributions, or they could even licence some version o
HDD + Linux for PS3 (Score:2)
Welcome to the Real World (Score:2)
This is one thing that "
Re:World Domination Anyone?? (Score:1)
FUD (Score:1, Troll)
The 1.7 million is a reflection of supply, not demand. In the first 6 months there was never a 360 that sat on the shelves for more than a few hours.
The console war is simple. All the multi-platform games will look exactly the same. Microsoft has the best individual single-platform game (Halo). But the big factor....
A $300 360 wil
Re:FUD (Score:2)
Re:FUD (Score:2)
Yeah, it's sitting right next to the boxes of soap, shampoo, and toothpaste that are also gathering dust.
Okay, mod me down Aucklanders! It was worth it!
-Eric
Re:FUD (Score:2)
Want to win the high def wars, try this... (Score:2)
I don't understand the thinking behind selling a game machine that cost $900 million to develop for $400 that will play BluRay DVDs and then also selling a BluRay DVD player for $1000. Why woul