The exhaustion of IPv4 address space 589
FireFury03 writes "Cisco has an interesting article talking about estimates for the exhaustion of the IPv4 address space, and the inevitable move to IPv6. It predicts that the IPv4 address space will be exhausted in 2 - 10 years and suggests that it isn't worth trying to reclaim old allocations. With the mainstream use of IPv6 now potentially within the ROI period of many products the manufacturers need to start including support, but will the ISPs roll out native IPv6 networks before they absolutely have to? IMHO, ISPs providing native IPv6 support would be a Good Thing since it opens up the door for peer-to-peer technologies such as SIP without needing nasty NAT traversal hacks, but a major stumbling block seems to be a complete lack of IPv6 support on current consumer-grade DSL routers (tunneling over IPv4 is an option but requires more technical know-how from the end user)." Of course, Cisco may have some vested interest in driving up the IPv6-compatible router sales *cough*, but the bottom line is that the transition will have to happen at some point in the near future.
Interesting (Score:4, Funny)
8 years seems to be a long time, to me...
Re:Interesting (Score:3, Informative)
In the article, this range comes from the fact that the data can be fitted to different curves, resulting in a different timescale. Some of the curve fitting I saw in the article used polynomials, exponentials, and linear functions.
Re:Interesting (Score:5, Funny)
Welcome to Slashdot.
Re:Interesting (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:Interesting (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:Interesting (Score:5, Informative)
003/8 - GE
004/8, 008/8, 046/8 - BBN
009/8 - IBM
015/8 - HP
016/8 - DEC
017/8 - Apple
018/8 - MIT
019/8 - Ford
045/8 - Interop Show Network !!
And then there's the US GOVERNMENT with 8+
Re:Interesting (Score:3, Interesting)
Your comment reminds me of the people who will buy a house next to a rural airport and then complain about the noise and try to shut it down.
Re:Interesting (Score:3, Informative)
They were one of the first movers and shakers in the internet industry 20 odd years ago.
Re:Interesting (Score:3, Interesting)
First - Hearing people talking about Cisco, and other companies, drumming up hype so that they can start selling new-fangled IPv6 capable routers is getting old... The Cisco router you already have will do IPv6 today. It's a software change.
Second - Why do people seem to insist that by turning on the IPv6 website, somehow that will prevent people from accessing the IPv4 website? So many ways to address this: Enabling a second network stack on the existing host; Standing up an addition
Re:Interesting (Score:5, Interesting)
Its not like there aren't plenty to go around still- HP owns 2 class As now, and a handul of universities own a full A as well. Reclaim a major portion of them for reuse.
Re:Interesting (Score:3, Funny)
Fossil fuels (Score:3, Insightful)
8 years seems to be a long time, to me.
Yep, and thirty years ago they said that we would be out of oil in twenty years. Go figure...
Re:Fossil fuels (Score:4, Informative)
Except, they didn't say that. "They" predicted that oil production would PEAK by (twenty years from thirty years ago) - "peaking" is completely different from "running out" - "peaking" means, basically, that you're at the top point of the production curve --- it means you've used up roughly half of the oil (i.e. you are only halfway), and that you will start running out ("start" meaning to be on the downward slope of the production curve - but you still have a LOT of oil at the point when you "start running out"). You're thinking of Hubbert's estimation (which was already in 1956, actually) that global oil production would peak in 2000. It was predicted that US oil production would peak by around 1970.
See this link [wikipedia.org] for more information on peak oil theory.
Re:Interesting (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Interesting (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Interesting (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Interesting (Score:3, Funny)
Yes, the range could certainly be extended by adding a few drill bits.
Already rolled... (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Already rolled... (Score:5, Informative)
Why do you need to wait to turn it on? IPv4 and v6 can run side by side. I've been running v6 for a few years using 6to4 tunnelling to provide connectivity since my ISP doesn't do native IPv6... infact I haven't seen *any* ISP (in the UK) offering IPv6 connectivity over DSL. Just providing a 6to4 anycast gateway on their core network would be a start.
Re:Already rolled... (Score:4, Interesting)
Try Andrews and Arnold [aaisp.net.uk]. I've had IPv6 (via a tunnel from their network) for the last two years with them. Native IPv6 (without a tunnel) is integrated into the new router they are developing, and should be live by the end of the year (only problem is finding an ADSL router that will support it, but you can use an ADSL modem and Linux, for example).
ADSL IPv6 router - Re:Already rolled... (Score:3, Informative)
Data sheet : http://cisco.com/en/US/products/hw/routers/ps380/p rod [cisco.com]
Re:Already rolled... (Score:3, Insightful)
Everybody seems to think that the added costs of a new software product end with deployment. Not so.
Re: hardware limitations (Score:3, Insightful)
I think that rather depends on how much of the network is IPv6 only - if there's a large chunk that's only on IPv6 then refusing to support it would be like telling the customers "we've decided to not route any of your traffic to the US anymore because that's cheaper for us". Customers would be leaving them in droves - they don't need to understand _why_ parts of the internet are inaccessibl
Re:Already rolled... (Score:4, Interesting)
the biggest problem i see (Score:3, Informative)
and they are effectively closed devices so adding support requires the manufactueres cooperation.
For *business* customers maybe, for a price. (Score:4, Interesting)
They only offer multiple client services on business accounts, so technically I'm already in violation of their rules because of using a router and NAT even though I run no "server", just a couple of PCs.
Yes, Cisco has a vested interest in replacing all those legacy IPv4-only cigar-box routers like mine. Yes, my IP provider would love a reason to raise rates or otherwise push me into a "business" account (and thereby charge me more).
Fact is, I won't be buying a new router, I'll just recycle one PC into place as a gateway and continue to hide behind NAT because I don't care to pay business rates for home PC use.
No matter how much I dislike IPv6 because of its "second system" bloat, I have yet to find a free IPv6 tunnel provider. Yes, it's my fault, people tell me they're out there I just cannot find them.
Bob-
Oops, never mind. (Score:3, Informative)
I can't understand why... (Score:3, Interesting)
NATs at home can only hold IPv4 together for so much longer. Soon a killer ap will come out that just doesn't want to be NATted, and the whole Internet using public will demand direct addressing [at least they'll demand a solution that requires direct IP addressing].
Re:I can't understand why... (Score:3, Insightful)
Because IPv6 isn't yet a buzzword that non-technical buyers are looking for. This will probably change in the next few years when the business world becomes concerned with it. Once a company CIO hears that his internet connection will die without IPv6 support, there will be a huge marketing effort on the part of Cisco and other router makers.
Re:I can't understand why... (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:I can't understand why... (Score:4, Insightful)
NAT is not a security tool.
NAT is not a security tool.
NAT is not a security tool.
Network Address Translation was never intended to function as a firewall or a packet filter, it was designed exclusively to allow multiple computers to share the same IP at once. That's it.
The fact that NAT has some side effects which are similar to a firewall has been a big problem for network security, because it leads users and even administrators to believe that their network does not need a firewall because they use a NAT system.
We are finally, after many years, starting to see real firewall use become commonplace, and a XP even has an automatic software firewall now, but if it hadn't been for NAT, I bet people would've been implementing real, security-focused firewalls a lot earlier.
Re:I can't understand why... (Score:3, Informative)
the problem is of course that you wan't some connections coming in but not others (because of chronically insecure lan protocols etc). UPNP helps to some degree as generally only internet orientated applications use it leaving stuff thats only safe for lan protected. another option is to manually open the holes but this is a
Is NAT Better? (Score:4, Interesting)
Can anyone explain whether this is true or not and why?
Re:Is NAT Better? (Score:5, Informative)
Re:Is NAT Better? (Score:5, Funny)
Cisco marketing rep:
NOBODY expects the IPv6!
Our chief benefit is length... greater length of the packet header and and unrememberable addresses...
Our two benefits are greater length of packet header and unrememberable addresses... and rewrite of all network apps....
Our three benefits are length of packet header and unrememberable addresses... and rewrite of all network apps.... and an almost fanatical devotion to some broken standard....
Our four... no...
Amongst our benefits... Amongst our array of benefits... are such elements as greater length of packet header and unrememberable addresses...
I'll come in again.
But seriously, if IPv6 was so good, it would not require so much pushing. If the IPv4 exhaustion was real and imminent, it would not rquire so much pushing.
Re:Is NAT Better? (Score:4, Interesting)
There is a time where the problem is looming, but taking action then will mitigate a lot of the damage.
Or one can wait until it is having severe impacts, and then we will all be hosed very very badly.
Re:Is NAT Better? (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Is NAT Better? (Score:4, Informative)
Well, ignoring the fact that there _are_ ways to defeat NAT (although they usually require cooperation from hosts behind the NAT anyway), one notable weakness is that you're relying on your ISP to get things right, and relying on someone else's cluefulness is always bad.
What I mean by that is, given a network like:
PC (192.168.0.1) ------ (192.168.0.254) Router (1.2.3.4) ------- ISP
Assuming 1.2.3.4 is a global scope address and 192.168.0.0/24 is site-local. The router is doing NAT, all well and good. However, if the ISP somehow ends up routing traffic destined to 192.168.0.1 to your router (for exacmple, a routing cockup on their end) then most consumer grade routers will just let it right through because they don't explicitly block incoming traffic.
Admittedly it's unlikely this would happen, and only nodes reasonably close to you would be able to take advantage of the routing. However, I still maintain that trusting a third party as part of your network security is a Bad Thing.
but I don't see how it's less secure than the complicated (and thus fallible) filtering rules in a "real" firewall.
Firewall rules don't have to be especially complex - a firewall that does the same job as a NAT (security wise) but provides protection from the above problem is simply a connection tracker configured to drop incoming connections. Infact, since a NAT is basically a connection tracker with some more stuff shoved ontop it could be argued that the NAT is more complex and thus more fallible.
Re:Is NAT Better? (Score:3, Informative)
No it isn't. No correctly set up firewall will be susceptible that type of attack where the ISP makes your network routable.
On the other hand, if you aren't using a firewall, every kind of NAT will be susceptible to that because NAT alone doens't drop any packets, ever. It just translates or does not translate.
Re:Is NAT Better? (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Is NAT Better? (Score:3, Insightful)
A second item is that moving to IPv6 will not necessarily remove NAT or the current 1 router many PCs setup so many of us have. ISPs in general have charged per IP connection/computer, considering each IP a separate computer. Do you honestly think that will cha
Re:Is NAT Better? (Score:5, Informative)
Re:Is NAT Better? (Score:3, Insightful)
NAT *is* a stateful firewall. That's how it works. It has to keep track of outgoing connections to remap those ports on the external interface. No outgoing connections == no port remapping on the external interface.
If you disagree, then explain to me how one could connect to a machine behind a NAT device if said machine has initiated *no* connections to the Internet. Sounds like stateful filtering at work.
Now, stateful firewalls are just as easy to implem
Re:Is NAT Better? (Score:3, Interesting)
They do. That doesn't save your ass in these situations:
Scenario 1: ISP gets hacked. Attacker sets up routes to your internal network. Attacker now has full access to your network and never even needed to lay a finger on your "firewall".
Scenario 2: Broadband ISP has ev
Re:Is NAT Better? (Score:3, Interesting)
Yes, that's right. But most of the cheap NAT gateways probably function that way interally also. It is just the web interface that prevents you from setting it up in that way.
For example, a number of linksys routers run linux. L
Re:Is NAT Better? (Score:3, Insightful)
There's nothing inherently more secure about NAT, it's just the way it's set up on most home routers. As a little experiment you can take a Windows box and put it in the "DMZ" of a normal home NAT box, which means that all ports and protocols get forwarded to it, just as if it was sitting on the public internet itself. It should end up getting owned by viruses and spyware just as quickly as if you plugged it into the modem, even though it's subject to NAT. The point being: the address
Re:Is NAT Better? (Score:5, Interesting)
well, it's not "better" as such, just a different solution. NAT is not a golden bullet though. Yes, it does, by and large prevent random machines on the internet directly contacting your unpatched windows desktop at home, but a firewall will do that too, and virtually every dsl router has a firewall these days too. I would like to see home dsl routers supporting native ipv6 but I don't know of any.
I think that ipv6 is a good thing to go for, but it's not finished (but then, is ipv4?
Mandatory support for ipsec is great.. except how many of us would use it? as there is currently no support for mndatory ipsec encryption to unknown strangers. you've got to be pre-configured for crypto. I'd like to see something like ssh. if you know the key then great, if you don't then you can accept and save one and then while you may not have verified the destination, you're at least protected on the wire. yes, they also need to sort out authentication and perhaps some form of certificate distribution, but lets make a start on something useable.
mobile IP. sounds great! I can be using my ipv6 pda via my mobile phone and as I walk into my house, it picks up my wireless net and my downloads speed up instantly, all the while not dropping the voip call I'm making. or I'm using a laptop on the train and as it flits from hotspot to hotspot I don't lose any of my connections. sounds great! how does it work? you tell me, details are not easy to find. ots of talk, few working implementations (if I'm wrong, please tell me, I'm genuinely very interested).
working with networks as part of my job, I know how useful and really annoying NAT can be, and I really think it should be an option, not a requirement. I'd love to see ipv6 rolled out and see what changes it brings, but I also think it needs a fair amount of work still.
dave
Re:Is NAT Better? (Score:3, Interesting)
Well, all those businesses that currently shell out rediculous amounts of money for VPN solutions I suppose. Things will get more interesting if DNSSEC (shoving X.509 certificates in DNS records) gets widespread and easier to use - at the moment it's horrendously complex to set up.
I think in the long run it'd be nice to use IPSEC with DNSSEC instead of SSL, etc. There are some advantages - for one thing, once the keys have been nego
Re:Is NAT Better? (Score:5, Interesting)
NAT in itself doesn't provide any extra security - the connection tracking needed by NAT is what provides the security (and you can do this equally well without using NAT). I wrote an article [nexusuk.org] on this subject a while back.
Whiles NAT does to some extent "solve" the limited number of addresses problem, it also creates many more problems. The Internet was designed to be peer to peer but NAT turns it into a client/server model. Whilest client/server works fine for "traditional" applications such as web surfing, it's a major stumbling block for peer to peer services such as VoIP, which have to employ various hacks to trick NATs into letting the peer-to-peer traffic through (with varying degrees of success). The likes of Skype are designed to hijack the connections of random Skype users who don't have NAT and use them to route traffic between peers who do have NAT when the NAT traversal hacks fail.
Re:Is NAT Better? (Score:3, Insightful)
IPv6 provides for priority and quality of service information in the packet, allowing for better priority based routing.
It also doesn't permit for fragmenting packets, which makes life easier for both routing and stitching it back together at the destination.
And distrobution of the addresses is done more fairly. It's not the US and western Europe (to a lesser extent) grab the address space they'd like and the rest of the world c
Re:Is NAT Better? (Score:5, Insightful)
Second, NAT helps multihomed corporations. For large companies, your 10k hosts are going to be distributed over many states/countries/ISPs
It is this address isolation and multihoming support that drives NAT use in small and large companies. Address space depletion has nothing to do with it. IPv6 does not fix these problems; companies will continue using NATs because NATs do.
Re:Is NAT Better? (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:Is NAT Better? (Score:3, Interesting)
Hahahahahahahaha, yeah right!
DHCP has been a internet standard RFC for what, 8 years now? DNS for over 20? And yet there are still brand new devices (
Re:Is NAT Better? (Score:3, Interesting)
I have a control stream (TCP/UDP doesn't matter) that I can successfully set up from within my NAT'ed network to an external machine. This control stream signals that we're going to set up two media streams, one from me to him, and one from him to me. They're over UDP.
I send him the port # I'm opening on my machine to receive the stream he's sending.
I never get the media he's sending. Want to know why?
Because I
Re:Is NAT Better? (Score:3, Interesting)
Love that quote (Score:5, Insightful)
Isn't worth it to whom?
Re:Love that quote (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Love that quote (Score:5, Insightful)
In particular, Level 3 Communications has not one but two Class A blocks, the 4.0.0.0 and 8.0.0.0 blocks; "Comcast IP Services" has another one.
There are some oddball Class A assignments on there too. Who would have guessed that Ford has one? The US Postal Service? The Defense Department has something like seven, not a huge surprise given when the assignments were made. Halliburton even has one.
Anyway, reading down the list you can see that the people who already have their own Class A blocks are unlikely to care too much about how quickly v6 gets rolled out, at least for their own use. But some of the newer big-time tech companies who aren't on that list might have more of an interest
Dupe. (Score:5, Funny)
It's a race! (Score:5, Funny)
[ ] Yes
[ ] No
[ ] Microsoft
[ ] I don't know what IPv6 is, but I'll post anyway
[ ] Cowboy Neal encodes my packets
Re:It's a race! (Score:3, Funny)
for anyone who can't tell wtf is going on (Score:3, Interesting)
"The IPv4 address space has 32 bits, limiting it to an absolute maximum of 232 (roughly 4.3 billion) possible addresses. For both administrative and technical reasons (the latter in large part being related to routing), IPv4 addresses are allocated in blocks which are restricted to sizes which are powers of 2; this leads to many addresses being unused at any given time. In addition to this, substantial parts of the IP address space are not easily usable because of early technical decisions reserving them for private network use, loopback addresses, multicast, and unspecified future uses, which has resulted in some of these limitations being programmed into devices; working around these limitations will require substantial amounts of re-engineering to increase the amount of available address space. Finally, some of the IPv4 address allocations made early in the development of the Internet (in the 1970s), when only blocks of 224 possible addresses (called a
THANK YOU wikipedia.
Explanation requested (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Explanation requested (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Explanation requested (Score:3, Interesting)
Right now, I can in most cases hide behind a
This question is partly rhetorical, as I don't think that this will be the case. But if anyone here knows about recent developments
Re:Explanation requested (Score:3, Informative)
Being able to get around NAT restrictions or trying to get UPnP working each time they want to play a particular online game, video conferencing, or transfer files directly with another person behind a NAT.
Most End Users may or may not notice it or understand it, but often when say a group of people use a NAT they are unable to connect direct to anyone else's computer who is also behind a
Re:Explanation requested (Score:3, Insightful)
Well NAT is a huge pain in the arse for anything peer-to-peer - for example VoIP.
Lets take Skype (horrible system that it is) for example. You want to make a call:
1. Caller A places a call to caller B. This involves talking to the Skype directory server and ggiving caller A the IP address for caller B.
2. The system realises that caller B is behind a NAT so caller A can't start a connection to B... ok, no problem, we just get caller B to initiate the session in
New Allocation Schedule (Score:3, Insightful)
I just wonder how we're going to resist the temptation to do the same thing again, now that we have another glut of address space. On one hand we don't want to end up with vacant blocks of addresses, but we don't want to be too niggardly about it either, or else individual static addresses won't ever 'trickle down' to end users and we'll be stuck with the same mess of NAT traversals and subnets that we have now.
I'm sure that this issue has been addressed (or will be addressed) but I'm just curious how the IANA will find the 'balance point' between assigning enough high-level blocks to make sure end users can get static global addresses, while not overassigning. Perhaps there should be some sort of a periodic review process for high-level address block assignments to see how fully utilized they are, and either assign an entity more addresses or reallocate underutilized resources.
Examples (Score:3, Interesting)
In general, corporate networks today are so completely firewalled that they might as well be behind NAT, and some (bless 'em) are -- Intel for one uses nonroutable addresses internally.
I predict that... (Score:3, Funny)
aw, c'mon...
in a month europe, brasil and a few other nations will force a global netsplit, so we'll have 2 "internets". double the address space for the same price, so this prediction is not only imprecise, it's useless!
my R$0,02.
Re:I predict that... (Score:3, Interesting)
No, there will not be a doubling of the address space, just the name space. Same internet, twice th ICANN. Now people will have to purchase domain names from two registrars to be listed on both DNS systems. And the moment this happens there will be a flurry of activity to develop rootless DNS systems, from which all will benefit.
All I know is (Score:5, Funny)
Hell, maybe the address shortage will create this crazy new "Road Warrior" world where IP addresses are a rare commodity and people have to fight each other with mad overclocked computers just to get some packets routed. And then Mel Gibson can play an ex-help-desk-guy-turned-hero whose Mac was killed by software pirates in the movie version.
All I know is, I'm training my kids how to catch sharp boomerangs.
Nasty NAT hacks (Score:3, Funny)
I'd love to know the zombienet operators' take on the conversion to IPV6.
Re:Nasty NAT hacks (Score:5, Informative)
Home routers (Score:3, Interesting)
My cold, dead hands (Score:5, Interesting)
fe80::02d0:c1ff:fe5c:0010/10
2002:c0a8:1122::5efe:0a01:0101/48
2001:7f8:2:c01f::2
I mean, DNS goes a long way towards turning that hex into something memorable, but as a sysadmin it does NOT make my life easier. Let's reclaim some of thoseRe:My cold, dead hands (Score:5, Funny)
Unless my host file grows to be the size of Montana...
Do host files and IPITAV6 work together anyway?
Besides, this is going to make my "There's no place like 127.0.0.1" shirt obsolete in 10 years!
I'll have to get one with colons in it!
Jeeze...
Re:My cold, dead hands (Score:4, Funny)
Good point. Imagine the joy:
Cute girl: There's no place like... colon?
You: *sob*
Think maybe I'll pass on that one.
Re:My cold, dead hands (Score:3, Informative)
Indeed, that is what they have done. They've just replaced dots with colons and decimal encoding with hexadecimal encoding. The only other trick is that you can replace a group of zeroes with a double colon.
The localhost address in IPv6 is 0:0:0:0:0:0:0:1 (or 0000:0000:0000:0000:0000:0000:0000:0001 if you're anal), but since it's almost all zeroes, you can write ::1 instead. In the same wa
Excuses, excuses (Score:3, Insightful)
The only admins who don't like IPv6 are those who are either ignorant of the way it works, or who are too hooked on being worked to de
Re:My cold, dead hands (Score:3, Informative)
Why don't you try to remember v6-tunnel34-uk6x.ipv6.btexact.com instead?
I mean, that's why you have the DNS. You don't have to remember any addresses. Honestly, how many public IP addresses do you know and actually use? Even as a sysadmin, I think you'll manage. Seriously, the "difficult to remember" argument isn't really an argument. 99.9% of the Internet-using population couldn't care less if their address had 32, 128 or 1024 bits or were written using Babylonian numerals. Heck
Re:My cold, dead hands (Score:3, Informative)
=Shreak
Re:My cold, dead hands (Score:3, Interesting)
Anything that is limited is valuable. Supply and demand. Think real estate. They aren't going to make more ip addresses, at least not in IPv4. That makes the ip addresses valuable and that's why MIT et al are not going to willingly give them up.
reserving address space for certain entities
When they were handing out addresses they had no idea that this thing would be wildly popular. Why ration (reserve) when you h
transport ready, management a hassle (Score:4, Informative)
I've been playing with IPv6 off and on since 2000. My current IPv6 plant incarnation is a Cisco 2610XM tunneling traffic from btexact (best tunnel broker if you want to play), a Cisco 1605 that is sometimes online, and a FreeBSD box. I don't have a site up this time, just taking it slow and playing, doing this mostly because the CCIE lab has started requiring IPv6.
The transport works just fine, the application support is still a hassle. If its a barrier for me after five years of dinking and nothing left to do Cisco wise except complete my CCIE
Moving to IPv6 from IPv4 is as much a change in mindset as moving from IPX to IPv4 was
Simple fix.. (Score:3, Insightful)
MASQUERADING. I get only 1 ip address from my provider.
I've got a wireless webcam, a zaurus wireless pda, company assigned laptop, my linux development desktop computer, my Apple G3 running LinuxPPC (my gateway, web, imap server),
My oldest son't room with a Linux based AMD 64bit server, a
mini mac, a sharp zaurus, my 2 youngest boys room and thier
computer and a laptop up in thier room, my hombrew robot,
a hacked compaq IA-1 that runs linux that I use to monitor my firewall, email, etc.. All these devices get to the outside world on 1 ip address. I have multiple servers that
are accessed by the outside world via port redirection as
well.
My point is that we should be tighter with ip address allocation.
Paying extra for fixed IP (Score:3, Interesting)
Now, if we have an unlimited number of IP-numbers, then I will be pissed if they expect me to pay extra for a fixed IP. What is their explanation and motivation for a higher price for a Fixed IP?
So maybe one of the reasons that they are trying to delay the introduction of IPV6 is because they know they will no longer get the extra income from customers that are paying for a fixed IP.
One Giant Honking DHCP Server (Score:5, Funny)
Waste (Score:3, Insightful)
Ed Almos
Not any time soon. (Score:5, Insightful)
The bottom line is that the only people who realy WANT a rollout of IPv6 is Cisco. Why? Because the vast majority of their existing installed routers will not support IPv6 with anywhere near the same feature set and packet rate as those routers can handle with IPv4. Thus, IPv6 means people upgrading equipment that isn't really deficient.
Most people have no concept of:
a) How much IP space we have left.
b) How extremely inefficent we have been with a large percentage of the address space.
c) How much assigned, announced, and routed space is completely unused.
d) How much the rate of growth has flattened.
e) How wrong every prediction about when we run out of IP space has been thus far.
If you search the nanog archives, you'll see posts by myself going back many years stating essentially "Somebody tell me why we need IPv6 again?"
Do not hold your breath. We're 10-15 years away from IPv6, because it will take an even larger gross expenditure for the service providers to upgrade to support IPv6 than it did for the broadcast industry to upgrade to HDTV.
This is what industries that rely on revenue growth do when their customer growth flattens. They invent a new widget, come up with reasons why everybody needs it, market it, and hopefully everybody buys the product all over again. IPv6 is admittedly a good bit different; it was created by geeks in attempt to solve a perceived problem. However, it was siezed upon by the router vendors as a future "upgrade when growth flattens" path.
Don't buy into the hype. IPv4 is here to stay for a long time. Even when IPv6 starts to have some decent degree of market penetration, you will always find most of the devices on the net are IPv4 behind IPv6 to IPv4 NATs.
Network Operators thoughts on IPv6 (Score:5, Interesting)
Anyhow, I myself was curious about if/when IPv6 would be rolled out. One of the talks was about how to deal with IPv4 space running out, and a lot of the talk revolved around such things as multiple web sites running on the same IP (which was very uncommon then) and other ways to use less address space. Some audience members gave other suggestions for conserving IP space such as ways to use Network Address Translation to limit public IP use. I would say the feeling in the hall was that this was not a problem, and that people had to go the route of IP sharing, and aside from the need for more IP sharing, everyone pretty much liked the situation as it was, which was in contrast to the prevailing attitude in the world outside the hall. One audience member rose his hand and said, "What about IPv6?" The response to this was the entire audience broke into laughter - it was the funniest thing they had heard that week. After that I began thinking about IPv6 more along the lines of projects such as MBONE [savetz.com] (anyone remember the hooplah over that years ago?). Not that IPv6 will never be implemented, but this story that IPv6 was needed straightaway could have been written 8 years ago. I haven't seen much headway in it in the past 8 years, except for products promising they were IPv6 compatible, just in case. Not that IPv6 will never be rolled out on a large scale, but I'm not holding my breath.
NAT is about a lot more than low address reserves (Score:3, Insightful)
For a start, a lot of ISPs only offer one address, partly to encourage people to buy more expensive packages with multiple addresses, and NAT transparently solves that issue.
There is no reason to assume that increased avilability of addresses will cause ISPs to offer more addresses to consumers - after all if they anticipate 100,000 single PC broadband connections, they are going to find it hard to get approval for 800,000 addresses (to allow a
Also low end ADSL connections often force NAT upon a user, allowing the vendor to create a differentiator between it's commercial and domestic offerings.
In the end NAT offers security, independence of allocated IP space to available addresses, simplified network management with an excellent delineation point between vendor and consumer (the ISP dosen't have to worry about what is inside the end user network), and a reasonable form of security. It's great for a small internet connected network.
Re:NAT is about a lot more than low address reserv (Score:3, Insightful)
the 10.x.x.x net is mine! Get off my lawn you kids (Score:3, Funny)
Let the EU deal with it (Score:3, Insightful)
Submarine Patents AHOY!!! (Score:3, Interesting)
That means for around the next 20 years we'll have the whole RSA debaucle played all over again in the IPv6 sphere. Expect to see "Innovative Ideas" lawsuits gouging money from OS makers and especially makers of routers(esp consumer grade) and other networking devices.
Look on the bright side thought. With any luck, we'll run out of IPv4 addresses before the litigation finishes, and then someone really WILL have to do something about it!
It's going to be ugly (Score:3, Informative)
Nor will consumers be into throwing out old hardware "to get more IP space"... that's not exactly going to work (marketing wise).
Nor will people with old OS versions, or other odd devices (IP cameras, etc. etc.).
IMHO this will need government pressure, similar to the digital switchover for TV. Some sort of a date for compliance of devices, and a clean switchover date.
Tunneling is not good enough, no multicast! (Score:4, Informative)
Many applications could take advantage of multicast if it were available.
Some examples:
Bittorrent is a cheesy IPv4 emulation of multicast.
Game servers could multicast 'common' data and save roughly 50% of the total bandwidth used.
Mirror sites could multicast their updates. Debian, Redhat, and other mirrors would use a fraction of their current bandwidth.
If you went the bittorrent way, files could be sent via looping multicast, no more slashdotting the Id games servers.
Basically, any duplicate TCP/IP streams could be a single stream that gets replicated at the router. I want it now!
Think of it, even spam could be more efficient with multicast emails!
Comment removed (Score:5, Funny)
IPv6 denial and IPv4 forever (Score:3, Informative)
Re:Embedded? (Score:3, Insightful)
But will this increase the depletion of IPv4, or just result in home NAT starting to support the use of CIDR/16 chunks of of 172.16/12 instead of CIDR/24 chunks of 192.168/16? As an example, my Zyxel DSL Modem was pretty trivial to switch over to using 10/8 on the inside its NAT, and would have been easier