jgardn's Journal: Prediction: Bush win

Bush has been climbing in the polls, despite the intense pressure the democrats have been exerting since last year. What is the secret of his success? Why is he doing so well despite such a coordinated effort to tarnish his record?

Quite simply, the democrats do more to drive the republicans than the republicans do. More than one republican has told me that they are voting for Bush not only because he is a good guy, but because the democrats have to be stopped.

I see unprecedented participation on the ground in this election. As for myself, I spent 8 glorious hours treading cement to spread the word about Bush and the GOP. I was quite well received. Sure, there were a few vehement anti-Bush Kerry-ites. But the majority of those I met with liked Bush and his policies.

The other reason Bush will win because of the GOTV effort. GOTV stands for "Get Out the Vote". It is a coordinated campaign to target exclusively republican voters and get them to show up at the polls. Here's a dirty little secret: There are more republicans who don't vote than democrats that do. This is the 6th year of the GOTV coordination, and this year, it is so precisely coordinated that in my precinct alone (of about 100 actual voters) 40 republicans are turning out for the first time in a long time. We've been split down the middle since Reagan, and this year, we are going to get a whopping majority.

We didn't do it for the primary, because we didn't want to tip our hat. But we are doing it for the generals. It's already begun.

Kerry will be lucky to take New York and Massachusetts.

If you are a republican, or a conservative, it is important that you hook up with you local party immediately and ask what you can do. There are phone calls to be made, doors to be knocked on, and parties to attend. This year is the year of Bush, and the end of the democrats.