Journal bostonidealist's Journal: More Wild 2014 Apple Speculation 1
Ahead of WWDC 2014, here are some thoughts and speculation on Apple.
Devices
OS X Laptop Computer
11.88 Inch 2732x1536 264ppi display
ARM A8 CPU
FaceTime HD camera
802.11ac Wi-Fi networking
Bluetooth 4.0
Lightning Connector
15+ hour battery
64GB - $799
128GB - $899
256GB - $999
64GB + Cellular - $929
128GB + Cellular - $1,029
256GB + Cellular - $1,129
OS X Desktop Computer
ARM A8 CPU
802.11ac Wi-Fi networking
Bluetooth 4.0
Lightning Connector
64GB - $499
128GB - $599
256GB - $699
New iPhone
4.7 Inch 1334x750 326ppi display
ARM A8 CPU
802.11ac Wi-Fi networking
Bluetooth 4.0
NFC
VoLTE
Touch ID Sensor
Lightning Connector
Health monitoring Lightning headphones
32GB - $299 on contract
64GB - $399 on contract
128GB - $499 on contract
The big change on the OS X side will be support for Apple's A8 ARM CPU, with new ARM-based OS X laptop and desktop systems. The ARM laptop will be positioned as the "lightest, lowest priced OS X notebook ever, with a beautiful Retina display and the best battery life of any Apple notebook." There will be options for cellular connectivity, which will differentiate the computer from existing MacBooks and other PC notebooks.
The ARM-based desktop picture is a bit murkier, but it's likely that Apple will replace the 18+ month old Mac mini. The 2012 Intel mini doesn't have 802.11ac and the standard configurations don't ship with flash memory, so Apple could advertise their inclusion in a new model as an upgrade.
The new iPhone will feature a bigger display and A8 CPU, but the key new features will be health monitoring headphones and NFC mobile payment. While mobile payment and health monitoring will also likely be included in the iWatch, along with identity and other features, Apple could announce basic health and payment functions at WWDC to introduce developers to the relevant APIs before the big iWatch debut. The inclusion of new headphone sensors will raise the price of the flagship iPhone, but Apple will lower prices on its remaining iPhone lineup to compensate.
Key Focus On Audio
There have been numerous reports regarding Apple's possible acquisition of Beats Electronics. Both companies have valuable branding: Apple makes large profits selling fashionable high end technology, while Beats profits selling fashionable, mediocre technology. In many cases, Beats headphones are the most expensive hardware accessories consumers purchase for their smartphones (iOS or Android). Apple knows that if it wants to get customers to use a new type of headphone, having Dr. Dre push Apple's new headphones as the trendiest, "best" headphones will go a long way towards getting Beats fans interested in Apple's kit.
Apple is likely planning a multi-faceted strategy to lock customers into its own audio ecosystem. This will involve the elimination of ubiquitous standards, such as the 3.5mm headphone jack, from Apple products. Apple will stress the thinness of new devices, like the iPhone, along with "high fidelity" audio delivery and health monitoring functions to push audio over Lightning and AirPlay. Apple will introduce new higher bitrate audio formats for the iTunes Store, and playing these new formats at their full bitrate will require new Apple devices. Apple will likely debut one or more new 802.11ac devices capable of playing the format; the Airport Express seems likely to receive an upgrade, as the current model does not include 802.11ac. However, Apple may have more elaborate plans to update/merge the Apple TV and Airport Express and/or debut new AirPlay target devices with integrated speakers.
Across its entire new product line, Apple will emphasize that its new Lightning audio standard will provide the "best" audio experience, from listening to high-bitrate content in iTunes on an ARM-based OS X computer, to watching movies on iPads, to making VoLTE calls on the new iPhone.
In this context, a Beats acquisition makes more sense. For customers whose loyalty to the highly-visible Beats headphones is greater than to Apple products, losing the ability to pair Beats with an iPhone would be ample cause for defection to Android. However, Apple could flip this around through a Beats acquisition and ensure that the only way to get the "best" Beats experience is to use the Lightning-enabled, Dr. Dre-endorsed headphones on Apple products.
Mobile Payment
Touch ID and NFC in the new iPhone and forthcoming iWatch will be the biggest windfall for Apple if they are successful. For consumers, Apple can emphasize convenience and security: don't carry a stealable credit card around to make payments, just use your thumbprint and don't trust some sketchy store's fingerprint scanner, use your own on your phone/watch. For businesses, Apple can leverage its huge bank of registered credit cards and established iTunes micro-payment infrastructure to lower credit card processing fees to merchants that accept their payment system.
In the long term, Apple could push this really far. They could intercept valuable transaction data to build up consumer profiles and gain commissions on a large number of their customers' transactions. Factor in the relative affluence of Apple customers and there's the potential for Apple to make a LOT of money off this.
Circadian-Targeted Advertising
While Apple will surely advertise that its new health-monitoring services in the iWatch and iPhone will improve and even save lives, there are huge opportunities to exploit health data to increase the efficacy of advertising. Apple could auction off advertising space based on both customers' known spending habits and their physical state at the moment of ad delivery. Imagine being able to deliver an ad knowing that someone is hungry, tired, or excited at a specific moment in time. This could be done subtly so that users wouldn't even notice that the ad for the candy bar they see on their computer screen is being delivered because their watch is telling Apple they're hungry.
Consolidating Control
While Apple will probably not announce or release all of its new products and services at WWDC, it's likely that they will methodically roll out many of these over the second half of this year.
If they do, this will be a critical juncture for Apple and its customers. There are clearly opportunities for Apple to introduce new technologies in more open ways: moving to ARM-based OS X does not require that Gatekeeper be permanently switched off, Intel has demonstrated that health-monitoring headphones can be driven via a standard 3.5mm headphone jack, and high-fidelity audio doesn't require a proprietary connection. However, over the years, Apple has moved towards more locked-down proprietary systems, from controlling its App Stores to Steve Jobs lying about making "FaceTime an open industry standard" in his July 2010 keynote. If Apple wanted to fully lock down its platforms, and there is every indication that's where they're headed, now would be a great time to do so.
Customers should be wary of an ecosystem where music they buy can't be played on systems or headphones of their choosing or where they can only get applications from a single source. However, it's clear that Apple's most locked-down devices, its iOS offerings, are its most profitable and consumers have been more than willing to surrender control and flexibility for perceived convenience. Apple could tout interoperability of Lightning peripherals between iOS and OS X devices and the timing is right to ditch ubiquitous standards like USB and analog audio since all applications and drivers would have to be rebuilt anyway for OS X on ARM.
If this happens, Apple stands to make or lose a fortune as it attempts to isolate its customers from other companies. Given how things have played out so far, Apple's success seems inevitable.
New iMac (Score:1)