AssFace's Journal: Do you want to find alligator cowboy boots that they just...

...put on sale?
Polyester Bride by Liz Phair (sp?)

She is a cutie.

I am starting to learn interesting things about fractal analysis of the stock market. Not the Brownian motion stuff fully, but along the same lines. geometric instead of cumulative sum stuff.

According to my code, which I have yet to optimize (or more importantly check for massive bugs), it says that for the ideal 10 stock portfolio out of the thousands of stocks that it has access to in my database, the following were the best:
ESS, MED, PNP, GV, MGA, MRGE, TRO, NVEC, CTSH, and INKP
(I wouldn't bother looking at these in the short term - this particular code doesn't look too much at short term bubbles - so more like a year out)

The ideal management would be to watch them during intraday trading and manipulate how much you own of each so that it remains as 10% of each.
That is hard to do without either only doing that all day, or using an automated system to do it for you.

The second way of doing it, and easier to maintain is to wait N days and then reconfigure it (so that you have equal parts of each - normalize it and redistribute).
For a portfolio of 10 stocks, the shortest time that you can wait is about a year.

So you choose any 10 stocks right now - my code suggests these as having the current highest likelihood to give you good returns from what it knows of them.
Put your X dollars into them, wait a year, look at what you have an reallocate them to even out.

If you want to come very close to or perhaps beat the indexes, then you can just spread it evenly to start and each time you go around (yearly in this case).

Were you to be changing it constantly, during intraday trading, then there are fixed formulas for calculating how much of each - or you can still do fairly well with just the even distribution.

My current stock database lends itself well to this analysis since you need at least 2500 days of data to get a pretty accurate end result from the code - and my current database is largely focused on at least that much data (if not more).

That said, I always want to increase the size of the database and the stocks available to me and therefore see if there are more possible stocks out there that would possible be better.

The issues with the larger database of stock are increased rate of problems. Stocks delist and my current system doesn't handle that very well. And it slows things down with each new stock.

If anything, I should probably focus on paring it down - but that is a hard thing to do (to a point).

tomorrow is my last day of work before my vacation for the rest of the month. I got a raise and a bonus today, nice things and higher than I had expected - especially since I hadn't been expecting anything.