chongo's Journal: 2003-CR20 asteroid update for 2003-Feb-23 23:00 UTC

The 2003-CR20 asteroid remains at the top position in the current impact risks .

New observations bring the observation total to 61 over a period of almost 12 days. 12 days is a a bit short to create an extremely accurate model. However, these 61 observations are from observers/observatories with a good track record of accurate observations.

Based on the new observations, we calculate the following information for 2003-CR20:

• Diameter: 560m (same value)
• Mass: 2.4e11 kg (same value)
• Potential impact speed (only IF it hits): 24.88 km/sec
• Potential impact energy (only IF it hits): 18,000 Megatons (same value)
• Torino impact hazard scale : 1 (same value)
• cumulative Palermo Scale : -1.17 (up from -1.32)
• close Earth approach paths in next 100 yrs: 19 (down from 22)
• Earth impact odds in the next 100 yrs: 1 in 27,000 (up from 1 in 37,000)

The 2003-CR20 asteroid is the 2nd object on the list with a non-zero Torino impact hazard scale value.

IF 2003-CR20 were to hit the Earth on land, its impact would result in sub-continent scale devastation. IF 2003-CR20 were to hit the Earth in the ocean, it would create a tsunami the size and speed of which have not been seen in recorded history. Such a tsunami would would inflict total devastation along adjoining coastlines and in some cases spread destruction far inland.

The impact speed, IF 2003-CR20 hits the Earth remains on the higher end of the typical asteroid approach speed.

The impact odds, while low, have become somewhat worse. Even though the number of Earth approaches have dropped significantly with the current model, these that remain yield a slightly greater risk of Earth impact. Still, there is a 99.9963% chance the asteroid will miss the Earth.

The following is a table of the close Earth approaches by 2003-CR20 where Earth lies within the 5-sigma path. See my explination for the data in this table. The 5-sigma approaches as of 2003-Feb-23 23:00 UTC, are:

1. 2028-09-19.80 0.73 +/-1.09 (Earth inside 1-sigma path)
2. 2031-03-18.05 0.45 +/-0.169 (Earth inside 3-sigma path)
3. 2031-09-20.05 1.03 +/-1.17 (Earth inside 1-sigma path)
4. 2034-03-17.73 0.77 +/-0.161 (Earth inside 5-sigma path)
5. 2034-09-20.15 1.63 +/-1.19 (Earth inside 2-sigma path)
6. 2040-09-19.36 2.48 +/-1.14 (Earth inside 3-sigma path)
7. 2043-09-20.17 0.83 +/-1.15 (Earth inside 2-sigma path)
8. 2046-03-17.53 0.80 +/-0.49 (Earth inside 2-sigma path)
9. 2049-03-16.96 0.91 +/-0.174 (Earth inside 5-sigma path)
10. 2050-03-15.57 0.43 +/-0.138 (Earth inside 4-sigma path)
11. 2052-03-16.74 0.73 +/-0.151 (Earth inside 5-sigma path)
12. 2052-09-18.73 0.43 +/-1.01 (Earth inside 1-sigma path)
13. 2055-09-18.73 3.28 +/-1.12 (Earth inside 3-sigma path)
14. 2061-03-16.75 0.27 +/-0.108 (Earth inside 3-sigma path)
15. 2073-03-16.43 1.11 +/-0.26 (Earth inside 5-sigma path)

The most significant close approaches have been marked in bold.

The highest risk approach remains the 2046-03-17.53 0.80 +/-0.49 approach. There is a 1 in 50,000 chance that 2003-CR20 will impact the Earth on that pass. There is a 99.998% chance that 2003-CR20 will miss the Earth on that pass as well.

The 2003-CR20 orbit model has become slightly worse for Earth. Stay tuned ...

P.S. There is no change is status for 1997-XR2. That asteroid remains as the only other non-zero Torino impact hazard scale object.