Glass of Water's Journal: Here's an interesting one about MP3s and CD purchases

Record Sales, MP3 downloads, and the Annihilation Hypothesis

The sales of recorded music have fallen recently. Many articles have been written and statements made about whether this decline is due to the downloading of MP3 files. The claim has been made that MP3 downloading, if unchecked, would destroy the recording industry, a claim I term the "annihilation hypothesis".

Unfortunately, much of the analysis appears to be little more than looking at the most rudimentary of numbers and then using one's favorite hypothesis to explain them. There are partisans on both sides trying to spin the numbers to fit their message. Most of the claims that I have seen are often unsubstantiated and sometimes are based on the use of different definitions.

In the following report I look at 30 years of record sales to try to determine what have been the most important influences on record sales. I then use this information to examine what has happened in the market recently to try to determine whether there is evidence that MP3s have caused harm and how large that harm might be.