amightywind's Journal: Russian Roulette

July 1 the Space Shuttle Discovery will lift off to the International Space Station, the beginning of a 17 flight series to finish the station and to retire, we hope.

By NASA manager's own admission the shuttle has a 1 in 100 chance of catastrophic failure and loss of crew. The odds are about 1 in 60 if you consider past performance. In 17 flights there is a 17-25% chance of losing the shuttle and an abrupt end to 7 astronauts shuttle program, as well as space station construction. For what is supposed to be a safety driven program after Challenger and Columbia I would expect better odds than Russian Roulette.