Journal dancpsu's Journal: Automated Future 2
It's interesting to hear a perennial diatribe of how automation is going to kill all the jobs and cause the economy to tank with millions of people out of work. It never happens, but it is counterintuitive as to why.
In the 1950s people in the US believed that the future would be mostly leisure time. They believed that in the future, with productivity rising, few people would need to work more than a part-time amount of hours and have all the money they need to live a full life. But 50 years later, people were working longer hours, all the while being more productive. When each new technology came along, more work came with it, and not the type that many people would predict either.
When automations were first speculated about, people expected to have robots that looked like people doing jobs in similar ways to people. The reality was that the machines that do work look like machines and do things like machines. The human-like robot world of the 21st century has not appeared because a specialized machine is better to be specially shaped for the task. It is easier to have an auto-checkout at the grocery store look like a checkout stand rather than a clerk. In fact, the RFID future would eliminate checkouts entirely in favor of a metal-detector style exit that would ring up your goods in an instant, with a quick review screen to look at before you pay wirelessly as well.
Things that could be done in an automated way would make goods cheaper, but would also make people desire more. If a taxi ride only cost $1, you might be tempted to take a taxi for your daily commute, or for running errands around town. If a video camera was only $10, you might be tempted to have five or six just in case something happened that you wanted to videotape.
Also, the pace of innovation has increased as more people have been dedicated to innovation. There are certain limits to the speed of innovation, and I don't believe people can go much faster than current levels, but even at the current pace, many more people will be needed to innovate and create than in previous decades as designs become more complex.
There are some things I think I could predict for the future.
Once cars are automated enough, one might only subscribe to a car service that would essentially be a driverless taxi service. With a cellphone or equivalent, you can call up your car for what you need and punch in your destination, receiving a bill at the end of the month. Parking may be a thing of the past if this occurs. Houses would only need a workroom instead of a garage.
Once fast food is created in an entirely automated form, a restaurant may include only an attendant or "manager" who cleans up, refills, and handles any problems that customers have with their orders or the automated ordering process.
Once making clothes becomes automated enough, a clothing store could be very small, with fabric, buttons, zippers, etc. fed into a machine. The customer would walk in, be measured precisely, and have clothes made to order in seconds. A single attendant could help the customer if there are any problems. Trying on clothes would be done virtually with large high resolution screens instead of mirrors simulating the clothes on the person's body.
In the 00's (Score:2)
They had these things called automats [wikipedia.org]. Replace the kitchen staff with some assembly-line robots, and a decent AI/manager (No need to be Turing complete, it's really not that hard.) and everything old is new again. Especially, if like at McD's all the ingredients are in bins and pre-cooked. Having managed a KFC, I guarantee that the cook and servers could be replaced by a small perl script. Of course, the catch is the willingness to trust a vending machine as a cashier. On both sides of
Re:In the 00's (Score:2)
I definitely think the car thing would not work until the car would be automated entirely (and the activity inside the car monitored) for two reasons. First, the person driving a car that was not their own, even if they had to pay for cleaning and damages after use, would probably eventually damage or steal the car. Secondly, and most majorly, it is far more convenient to have a car arrive where you are if you want to do something like take home groceries. Reservin