pagsz's Journal: pagsz's 2002 NFL Preview, Part One: AFC

Well, the NFL season kicks off a week from today. I, being a football fan, have decided to dedicate a couple of journal posts to the upcoming season. So here is my preview of the AFC, organized by divison and alphabetically (not by predicted order of finish):
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East

Buffalo Bills :
The Buffalo Bills made a major upgrade to their offense with the addition of QB Drew Bledsoe. Bledsoe should bring stability to the position for the first time since Jim Kelly retired. WR Eric Moulds provides a talented target for Bledsoe, and he should aslo be aided by the solid running of RB Travis Henry. The pieces are in place for a solid offense.

The biggest question is can the defense rebound this year? After having a solid defense for years, the Bills defense dropped to 23rd (or thereabouts) in the league last year, in large part to a change in the defensive system.

The East is the toughest division in the conference, so it may be difficult for Bills to make a run at the playoffs.

Sidenote: The Bills changed their uniforms this year. The home jerseys aren't that bad looking, but the away jerseys are screwy looking. Kind of in the Denver Broncos "as ugly as possible" uniform mold.

Miami Dolphins :
The Dolphins' biggest offseason acquisition was that of RB Ricky Williams. Williams should bring to Miami what the Dolphins have not had in decades: a prominent running game. This can only help QB Jay Fiedler to keep the passing game strong.

The Dolphins have had one of the league's best defenses in the past few years. This shouldn't change this year, with DE Jason Taylor, LB Zach Thomas and a talented secondary returning.

The Dolphins seem to have all the pieces in place for a championship run. Their biggest obstacle, however, is not their opponents. It is a month: December. In the past decade, Miami teams have had great first halves only to falter down the stretch. To make a Super Bowl run this year, the Dolphins will have to avoid another December jinx.

New England Patriots :
The defending Super Bowl champion Patriots were active again this offseason, making upgrades to the offense. Added were TEs Cam Cleeland, Christian Fauria, and rookie Daniel Graham. Also added to bolster the passing game were WRs Donald Hayes and (impressive) rookie Deion Branch. These new players, as well as returning WRs Troy Brown and David Patten, should provide plenty of weapons for QB Tom Brady in his first full season as the Patriots quarterback. The running attack should be solid again this year, with RB Antwain Smith carrying the load.

The Patriots' solid defense returns, featuring one of the best secondaries in the NFL. CB Ty Law and S Lawyer Milloy are dominant players, and S Tebucky Jones may become one. Added to the talent is veteran S Victor Green.

The Patriots enter the 2002 season with a team improved from 2001, but face a more difficult schedule. Division opponents have bolstered their rosters, and difficult non-divisional games fill the schedule.

New York Jets :
The Jets offense, as it has for the past few years, revolves around RB Curtis Martin. Martin's consistently strong play makes the Jets an almost automatic playoff contender. If aging QB Vinny Testaverde and young WR Santana Moss can put together good seasons, the Jets may have a strong offense indeed.

The Jets defense lost a lot of talent to salary cap considerations. Last year's starting secondary is virtually gone, with S Victor Green and CB Aaron Glenn no longer around. This being the case, the defense may struggle this year, especially in pass defense.

The Jets play in a strong division featuring solid defenses. If their own defense struggles, it may be up to the offense to overcome the odds.
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North

Baltimore Ravens :
The Ravens enter this year with an offense thinner than last year's disappointing squad. QB Elvis Grbac, after a mediocre season, retired, and TE Shannon Sharpe was lost to salary cap considerations. However, RB Jamal Lewis returns this season, behind a still solid offensive line. A solid running game should help untested QB Chris Redman to adapt to the NFL.

The once mighty Ravens defense, which carried the team to the Super Bowl XXXV win, has been gutted by salary cap problems. Gone are S Rod Woodson, LB Jamie Sharper, DT Tony Siragusa (retirement), and CB Dwayne Starks, along with a couple others. Also gone is the mind behind the defensive dominance, defensive coordinator Marvin Lewis (Redskins). Dominant LB Ray Lewis, along with DE Michael McCrary and LB Peter Boulware return to a defense that will likely slip back into the middle of the pack.

The prospects are not too good for the Ravens this season. They may have to sweat out a couple of bad years, before clearing enough cap room to start rebuilding.

Cincinnati Bengals :
The backbone of the Bengals offense, as it has been for the past few years, is RB Corey Dillon. The passing game is still a question. QB Gus Frerotte has been named the starter, the first time he has assumed the role since 1997 (Redskins). Talented young WR Peter Warrick should help get the passing game off the ground.

Over the past couple of seasons, the Bengals have built a solid defense, with LB Takeo Spikes heading the squad.

The Bengals have been the doormat of the NFL for a decade. While a playoff run may be unlikely this year, the Bengals should at least climb back to respectability.

Cleveland Browns :
Last season, the offense was the weak point for a reborn Cleveland Browns franchise. QB Tim Couch continues to develop, and he has some talent at the wide receiver position. WR Kevin Johnson returns, despite preseason rumors.

Last year's solid defense returns, minus LB Jamir Miller, lost due to a preseason injury. The Browns return with a strong young secondary that should keep the Browns in most games.

If the offense can put together a strong season to augment the Browns' aggressive defense, Cleveland may just have a playoff team again.

Pittsburgh Steelers :
Last year's strong offense returns this year with some question marks. Was last year a fluke for QB Kordell Stewart, or a sign of things to come? How much does RB Jerome Bettis have left? Despite these questions, the offense does have a couple of big advantages: WRs Hines Ward and Antwaan Randle El. Both former college quarterbacks, these players provide plenty of versatility for the Steelers offense.

The Steelers defense is young and talented. Last year, it was among the best in the NFL. It should be the same again this year. Even if the offense should struggle, the dominant defense should keep them in any game.

Last year, the Steelers fell one game short of the Super Bowl. This year, they should make another run at it.
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South

Houston Texans :
As an expansion team, it's a bit difficult to gauge the depth of the offense or defense. However, this team is probably better off than most expansion teams before. They should have a respectable season.

Indianapolis Colts :
The Colts dynamic offense returns for another season. RB Edgerrin James returns after last year's knee injury, and QB Peyton Manning and WR Marvin Harrison are looking to improve on last year's disappointing season.

Last year's Colts defense was dreadful, among the worst in the NFL. This year, new head coach Tony Dungy looks to improve that squad.

The Colts success this year depends on their defense. The stronger the defense is this season, the further the Colts will go. They should be at least strong enough for a playoff run.

Jacksonville Jaguars :
This year, dynamic RB Fred Taylor returns to the offense healthy, and should provide a solid running attack. The passing attack, however, may suffer. Gone is WR Keenan McCardell, and WR Jimmy Smith has yet to work out with the team this year (contract dispute). Without these two targets, QB Mark Brunell may have difficulty finding targets this season. Also, he no longer has dominant OT Tony Boselli up front protecting him.

The Jaguars defense has been middle-of-the-pack over the past few years. The same will probably be true this year.

After getting off to a fast start in the first few years of their existence, the Jaguars have fallen back into the middle of the pack.

Tennessee Titans :
Last year, the Titans offense struggled as RB Eddie George and QB Steve McNair missed time due to injury. This year, both return healthy. The Titans offense looks to be the strongest its been in years.

The solid Titans defense returns. If DEs Kevin Carter and Jevon Kearse can improve on last year's disappointing seasons, the Titans defense could again be among the best in the NFL.

After back to back 13 - 3 seasons and an AFC Championship, the Titans slipped back into the pack in 2001. This year, they should again be among the elite.
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West

Denver Broncos :
The Broncos running game has been in a bit of flux since 1999, when now retired RB Terrell Davis suffered the first of a string of knee injuries. RBs Olandis Gary and Mike Anderson have stepped in to fill the hole, as rookie RB Clinton Portis is likely to to this year. The real question for the Broncos is the passing game. If QB Brian Griese can return to his 2000 form, the Broncos offense will likely thrive. He has good targets in WRs Ed McCaffery (returning from injury) and Rod Smith, and returning TE Shannon Sharpe>. If not, the offense will struggle.

A solid defense returns, without any major additions or losses. It should be a solid unit again this year.

The Broncos have a solid team, and could be primed for a playoff run. Or, they could slip back into mediocrity. We'll have to wait and see.

Kansas City Chiefs :
The NFL's leading rusher from last year, RB Priest Holmes, returns. The strong running game he provides should help QB Trent Green get the offense off the ground.

For the first time in years, the Cheifs defense struggled last year. It is likely to do the same this year.

The Cheifs lack of a strong defense will likely counterbalance their offensive potential. In other words, they'll lose high-scoring games.

Oakland Raiders :
The Raiders' strong offense returns this year, featuring a cast of veterans. The only thing that may slow the offense down is age, as QB Rich Gannon and WRs Jerry Rice and Tim Brown are nearing the end of their careers. However, these are three of the most dedicated players in the NFL, so production shouldn't drop that much.

The Raiders' solid defense returns, minus DT Darrel Russell. Russell will miss the entire 2002 campaign after violating the league's drug policy. However, the addition of S Rod Woodson into a talented secondary can only make things better.

The window for the Raiders closes after this year. They are already $50 million over the 2003 salary cap, so after this season they will have to dump much of their talent. It's now or never for the silver and black.

San Diego Chargers :
The Chargers offense looks to recover last year after struggling last year. RB LaDainian Tomlinson returns, and will likely be featured in (new) head coach Marty Schottenheimer's offense. Second-year QB Drew Brees steps into the starting role, after QB Doug Flutie struggled in the second half of the season.

The Chargers defense has been solid in recent years, and should only get better under the defense-minded Schottenheimer.

The Chargers can only get better this year, after going 1 - 11 to end the season in 2001.
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Predictions:

East Champion: Miami Dolphins
North Champion: Pittsburgh Steelers
South Champion: Tennessee Titans
West Champion: Oakland Raiders

Wild Card 1: New England Patriots
Wild Card 2: Indianapolis Colts

AFC Champion: Miami Dolphins