"(1) The chances that a species at our current level of development can avoid going extinct before becoming technologically mature is negligibly small
(2) Almost no technologically mature civilisations are interested in running computer simulations of minds like ours
(3) You are almost certainly in a simulation."
...So if you think that (1) and (2) are both false, you should accept (3).
Obviously this last sentence is meant more to play up the conclusion that we are in a simulation. (2) is the most plausible; it is incomprehensible to me (though admitedly I may be of a lesser mind that those running the simulation) why greater beings would waste CPU time on mere humans.
In all seriousness, though, if we assume 2 to be true and 1 to be false, we can most certainly dismiss 3. And if we assume 1 to be true, where does that leave us?
"Let us consider the options in a little more detail. Possibility (1) is relatively straightforward. For example, maybe there is some highly dangerous technology that every sufficiently advanced civilization develops, and which then destroys them. Let us hope that this is not the case."
Of course most mutations die out. This is how evolution works. Obiously, we can assume that if evolution has gotten us this far, it is likely that it will have created similar intelligent beings and perhaps even more advanced than us (or we ourselves will acheive such a level of mental greatness).
This is a fun intellectual debate (and clearly meant to gain the limelight) but its a bit overblown, too, I think.
it is incomprehensible to me (though admitedly I may be of a lesser mind that those running the simulation) why greater beings would waste CPU time on mere humans.
I'm not sure about that, after all The Sims is pretty popular.
...it is incomprehensible to me (though admitedly I may be of a lesser mind that those running the simulation) why greater beings would waste CPU time on mere humans.
Well, if there's no better explanation to this, you can always assume that the human race has been chosen for a very important role (typical sci-fi plot - a member of an outcast race saves the universe), and start a religion based on this assumption...
the choice offered and its arguments are indeed weird:
a) it is a false choice: maybe there exist more options? while we're into the wild options: the existence of God for instance? b) option (1) cannot be dismissed easily: even if the chance of us existing is very small, it is >0 nontheless, and we exist, so it happened. If it didn't happen, we weren't here to question it. Also, the universe as we perceive it is very big, so even a small chance occuring isn't that amazing. c) option (3): can computers as
Or flood the whole place and start over, or blow up cities that aren't working right, or flip into cheat mode and tear down city walls so your invading army can invade...;)
Bah, we haven't seen that sorta stuff for ages. If the world is a simulations, it must have been superceded by SimReality 4000 or something. All the players have gotten bored.
"Be there. Aloha."
-- Steve McGarret, _Hawaii Five-Oh_
Not Exactly... (Score:4, Insightful)
(2) Almost no technologically mature civilisations are interested in running computer simulations of minds like ours
(3) You are almost certainly in a simulation."
Obviously this last sentence is meant more to play up the conclusion that we are in a simulation. (2) is the most plausible; it is incomprehensible to me (though admitedly I may be of a lesser mind that those running the simulation) why greater beings would waste CPU time on mere humans.
In all seriousness, though, if we assume 2 to be true and 1 to be false, we can most certainly dismiss 3. And if we assume 1 to be true, where does that leave us?
"Let us consider the options in a little more detail. Possibility (1) is relatively straightforward. For example, maybe there is some highly dangerous technology that every sufficiently advanced civilization develops, and which then destroys them. Let us hope that this is not the case."
Of course most mutations die out. This is how evolution works. Obiously, we can assume that if evolution has gotten us this far, it is likely that it will have created similar intelligent beings and perhaps even more advanced than us (or we ourselves will acheive such a level of mental greatness).
This is a fun intellectual debate (and clearly meant to gain the limelight) but its a bit overblown, too, I think.
Re:Not Exactly... (Score:2)
I'm not sure about that, after all The Sims is pretty popular.
Re:Not Exactly... (Score:2)
Well, if there's no better explanation to this, you can always assume that the human race has been chosen for a very important role (typical sci-fi plot - a member of an outcast race saves the universe), and start a religion based on this assumption...
Re:Not Exactly... (Score:1)
Re:Not Exactly... (Score:1)
a) it is a false choice: maybe there exist more options? while we're into the wild options: the existence of God for instance?
b) option (1) cannot be dismissed easily: even if the chance of us existing is very small, it is >0 nontheless, and we exist, so it happened. If it didn't happen, we weren't here to question it. Also, the universe as we perceive it is very big, so even a small chance occuring isn't that amazing.
c) option (3): can computers as
Re:Not Exactly... (Score:2)
Re:Not Exactly... (Score:1)
Re:Not Exactly... (Score:2)