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Brainstorming New Uses for a Mobile Processor 296

Posted by Cliff from the thinking-up-new-ideas dept.
Lycestra asks: "When carriages became cars, cars still looked like carriages. This caused people to see them as much the same as carriages, which cars are not. Getting back to processors, now that we have one designed for long term portability, we need to get away from the dinosaur that is the personal computer. PDAs are different than PCs, but only because they are underpowered. If you look at the Newton2k, you've seen what an overpowered PDA can become. So, my question is, what /can/ we do, now that we can have a powerful micro-portable? I know this must go beyond just better battery life and wearables." What do you think Mobile Computing will be in the future? How will this differ from how we compute now?
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Brainstorming New Uses for a Mobile Processor

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  • Re:RIP Re:newton2k?? (Score:1)

    by Anonymous Coward
    Sounds like the Newton 2000 would also need a motorcycle battery to run more than ten minutes without a recharge

    The MP2000 uses a NiMH battery about the size of four AA's. If you put very high stress on it (by plugging in an energy-sapping PCMCIA modem and surfing the net, say) the machine's battery lasts about two hours in my experience. "Normal" use (writing notes, say) drains the machine in about 12 hours. Most users get two weeks to a months' typical usage out of one charge, fairly similar to a Palm Pilot's battery.

  • My View Of a perfect PDA (Score:1)

    by Anonymous Coward
    ...Its in Your watch.... it transmits video signal over short range radio to the two screens in your [semi-permanent?] contact lenses... [augumented reality]...
    It has the Following features:
    Calendar (centrally updated w/events which might interest you); To Do List; Addressbook, TV/Radio, Videocamcorder, camera, cellphone equivalent, audiorecorder/transcriber, healthmonitor (pulse/oxygen level/bloodpressure for starters) etc.. had a wishlist somewhere... but lost it....

  • The Power is in the ease of Use (Score:1)

    by Anonymous Coward
    I think for a portable to be truly powerful, strides must be made in the user interface. The palm has made computing as easy as writing on a post-it note bat what will take it to the next level of availability. Like the printing press did to books and standardized parts did for other industrial products...

    I'm curious what the next step in user interfaces will be. Rather a voice or a pen perhaps we will tap into a little used, but still functional, nerve of the human body (the little Toe perhaps?)and use that as a pointer to maneuver around a virtual computing environment projected onto our retenas.

    J Wood

  • Back in 1977, he forsaw the PDA...go, read it, and then you will have an idea of what they can become.

    ttyl
    Farrell
  • I am not a wireless expert, but to be it seems like there's a bandwidth problem. For wired communication, if you want more bandwidth, you just lay some more lines (examples: interleaved memory banks to increase memory bandwidth, laying more fiber to increase WAN bandwidth).

    But with wireless, there's only so much bandwidth in the ether up there! And information theory tells us there's only so much lossless compression we can expect, right?

    How far away are we from saturating the ether?

    nick
  • For the first point, look at this page [mit.edu] and scroll down to the "face recognition" section. I have also read about a guy that had lived with a set like that for a couple of days but I have lost the link.
  • You have to give a large portion of your attention to these sorts of devices and by doing so distracting yourself from doing anything else. ... What do all the PDAs and cell phones really do for people? It's leading to a society ruled by the transistor rather than by the people living in the society.

    Here's some free information that I will give you gratis for nothing: using cell phones, you can communicate with other people.

    Where I live (Helsinki, Finland) almost all teenagers and twenty-somethings have mobile phones. They use them to keep in touch with their friends in a way no-one has seen before. Someone said it works much like a flock of birds or a herd of animals. Using text messages and short phone calls, they tell each other where people hang out and what's going on. A flock of teenagers can be dispersed all over the city, and still know where all the others are, who they hang out with, where they are heading this evening. In minutes, they can arrange to meet somewhere. Word flows like water.

    This is a very fundamental change in urban culture. And it's here to stay. I like it because it's a step in the right direction. Future technologies and devices will just enrich the possibilities. I'm not sure what you're scared about. This is the future -- get accustomed to it or be square.

    I'm going to get rid of my modem phone line as soon as my cable modem arrives, and I'm not the first nor the only one who's doing this. After that, I'll be completely dependent on my cell phone. :-)

    --Bud

  • Small, powerful and low power CPU's allow make far more than cool PDA's possible.

    Think of the Negroponte-style fridge orders some new milk when you're running low, or a VCR with *intelligent* voice recognition ("Record Buffy tomorrow evening").
  • I believe that since humans interact by ways of speech, in order to close the gap between man and machine, we need to interact with the machine in the same way we interact with other humans. Speech.

    Why? Machines aren't humans. Even intelligent machines aren't humans. Maybe speech is a good way to interact with machines, maybe not. But it doesn't follow that because people interact through speech (and voicing, and gesture, and touch, and a range of symbolic forms) that that's the best way to interact with a machine. We've certainly got a lot done on computers without VR so far.

    Obviously, I have an opinion here. I think VR will succeed in some narrow domains, but for the most part, VR will be a bad fit. Carry a machine around for a day and talk to it. Try it for ten minutes even. Not pleasing.

  • When I get the cash together :) I have a nice 'papper' design for a pda/wearable, with 'no particular interface' designed to put info on a display, or use a voice synth, voice recognition may now be achieved through sphynx2, and maybe a home made twiddler clone - for my hand :)

    This really is very close to what a werable is, but, that is all I need a mobile pc to do, with the addition of checking email, etc... using a packet radio interface, and using ham radio frequencies, and have IM-ing with jabber [jabber.org] maybe even rig it up, so I no longer need a mobile phone, just transmit / receicve the voice data through the system to my home phone :)

    A small ammount of AI would be a good addition, using another suggestion, so that you can tell the wearable a persons name, and what you might be engaging in with this person (great for keeping track of multiple girlfriends :)), and it will be able to, at the least, relay back some notes that you have previously left.

    In summary, it would make my life easier, and I can think of the more imortant things, like programming, internet & persons of the oposite sex :)


  • Anyone have info on this? I thought the newtons died out awhiel back... this a gras-roots new newton model??
  • The PC as we know it is always going away. That's what keeps me coming back for more.
  • I believe people want something that is as easy to interact with as interacted with another human. There are tons of researchers working on making machines act, think, and respond just like humans.

    We've certainly got a lot done on computers without VR so far.

    Just because we've done a lot without VR, doesn't mean a thing. It's advancement in this technology that will make computers easier to interact with.

    Sure VR is not ripe NOW, however in time, with improvements in VR, it will become as easy to interact with a machine as it is another human. This is inevitable. Twenty years ago people didn't think computers would be as powerful as they are today. Twenty years from now, won't be any different.

    With portable devices on the verge, more time and money will be spent on UI, because as others have stated, a keyboard is no longer a viable solution.

    Imagine a world where paper and pencil are no longer needed. A keyboard and mouse are devices of the past. This will happen. This doesnt mean mice and keyboards won't exist, I just dont believe you will NEED them like you do today.

    Carry a machine around for a day and talk to it. Try it for ten minutes even. Not pleasing.

    Sure, if you think in terms of TODAYS technology. Tomorrows technology will be much better.

    Look at the research being done with AI and robots. Intelligent machines that interact with people as if they were people.
  • Voice recognition as we know it today, has some problems. However, I believe that since humans interact by ways of speech, in order to close the gap between man and machine, we need to interact with the machine in the same way we interact with other humans. Speech.

    Companies like Lernout & Hauspie (L&H) are making great inroads into voice recognition. I worked at a company developing a voice recognition GPS navigation system. It had it's problems with the voice recognition, but was still pretty darn good. In time, the hurdles we see now, we'll laugh at and wonder why it was so hard to develop a true interactive device.

    Large companies are doing extensive research on voice recognition. From IBM, Microsoft, Amazon.com, Dragon, and L&H.

    Give it time. Voice recognition will be the way we interact with portable, and non portable devices.
  • If someone were smart, they would push all that warm air to heat the building. The $5.50/hour could be reduced from the offset in heating bills.

    ;)
  • The wireless LANS here in the US are 2Mb/s, that's not new. However I was under the impression that Europe was a few years behind the US in terms of broadband technology.

    At least that's what the stock analysts are saying.
  • Fans don't help in space, as there's no air to move heat. Instead of convection, in space you have to use conduction (think big heat sink connected to the outside of the spacecraft) and radiation (to radiate the heat into space).

    The special hardware is to deal with cosmic radiation, which can cause errors in memory and processors, and eventually cause them to fail.

    For a lot of info about satellites, check out http://www.amsat.org/ which has information about Amateur Radio satellites, including some nice diagrams and explanations of how stuff works.
    Especially recommended is http://www.amsat.org/amsat/sats/phase3d.html which has lots of links to detailed descriptions of things like reaction wheels and magnetorquers.
  • So, now we've got a fast, low power CPU. That doesn't help us too much though. Why? Because we're still lacking one thing that PCs have that can't be made portable: the user interface components. (ie, monitor, keyboard & mouse)

    What do I mean? Ok. I have a Newton2k and absolutely love it! It's got the biggest screen of any "PDA", and it's still not quite suitable for constant use. Even with the extremely good handwriting recognition it's got. Besides, it's still bulky.

    So, we really need to figure out a way to get information into and out of the computer for a portable to really be worth something. Right now, the interface takes up much more volume than the computer itself does, just look at your average 17" monitor compared to your computer.

    Our current best hope is for some acceptable form of eye monitor for the display, but that still doesn't take care of input. Voice recognition can cover a lot, but still not that much. How about some small keyboard like devices (eg. twiddler, wrist keyboard)? Well they're a bit unwieldy.

    Suggestions?

    ** Martin

  • Palm size with a display that looks at good as a real CRT.. Enough wireless bandwidth to stream video with lots of room to spare.. Batteries that last at least weeks.. CPU power and storage don't matter as long as I can use remote resources transparently through that fat wireless pipe.. Voice Recognition, touch screen and/or wireless keyboard... Priced around the same as a discman.. That's the kind of PDA that would change the way we live our lives..

    Problems:

    Display - That small that good doesn't exist yet

    Batteries - Fuel cells might do the trick.

    Bandwidth - I believe the wireless technology exists, its a question of infrastructure and regulation.

    The Point (I guess):
    Transmedia is making some neat CPUs, but I don't need more CPU power, I need more of everything else.

    Anyone developing someting like this? I'm available for beta testing.. :)
  • The Newton 2000 was the last Newton model. It was really more of a sub-company notebook than a PDA (it featured a much larger screen and a portable keyboard and was made for tasks like word processing).
  • Right now, the whole PDA interface thing sucks ass. They still essentially look like 'horseless carriages'. Blurry/tiny Little screen, sucky little pointy input device, and this Graffiti shit is fully lame and slow.

    Direct neuro-connect would be great, but I don't see it happening soon. Voice interaction would be nice, but still some shorthand in validating input has to be done or we are at the level of the telephone "Say Yes if you want to kill the monster, Say No elsewise". Yuck.

    Right now they are still at the level of expensive toy for those lacking in self-confidence and need a fancy gizmo to impress their other cube dweller buddies. I think they are quite lame. Give me a paper notebook and a pen for now.

    I can actually perform the incredible task of remembering phone numbers and today's meetings IN MY BRAIN! That's basically all the dumb gadgets are used for - an exotic alarm clock/phone book.

  • Imagine what these kind of CPUs could do in spacecraft. Much lower heat output work in vacuum, etc...
  • Take a low-power processor (crusoe or strongarm), add an IBM microdrive (340 megs the size of a quarter), and a DRAM with a couple dozen megs of memory. Now add in PCS cell phone/modem functionality (tiny microphone, transmitter/receiver with the antenna in the wristband part). And of course a rechargeable lithium battery of some kind to power the whole mess. (If you can get enough power to keep it running all day, you can recharge it at night while you sleep.)

    For the software, install a stripped down Linux kernel, some speech recognition and speech synthesis software.

    Viola, you have a PC on your wrist that can make cell phone calls, act like a pager, or download your email and read it out loud to you, all voice controlled. (With Infra-red sending capabilities if you can fit it in somewhere.)

    And an LCD on the front to tell you what time it is, of course. :)

    Rob

  • Actually, some of those ideas aren't too far off in wearables. It's part of Steve Mann's work. Image recognition, as well as relevancy returns, is already possible, although I think facial recognition isn't at 100% for obvious reasons.

    Deja vu/"I told you so" mode is probably only limited by the CPU power and video codec available, as well as disk space. With a large enough drive, you could even resort to just realtime audio compression/encoding, and work on the video while you sleep, giving you full time access.

    Diplomacy... I'm sure you could get a few dialogues in there, but that's a tad tricky. I won't go into the dangers of Drive me home mode if it even were possible ;-)

    Christopher Kalos
  • Not realy.

    The space used is not for the processor and other electronics, but with drives. And besides, the cases are still going to be as tall as expansion cards.. Even if you have a mobo/case with no cards, and one with a fan takes up 2u of rack, and without a fan it takes 1u of rack, you still have the 4u RAID case below it...

  • Imagine what you could do with lego mindstorms when hooked up to a fully-featured processor? :)
  • Don't underestimate how nice it is to be fanless even on a normal desktop in an office somewhere. The machine is _quiet_.

    The new iMacs are convection cooled without a CPU fan, and when you get used to them, they make normal desktop machines just plain unpleasant to be near.
  • There are too few IRQs, too few base addresses, and too few DMA channels not to mention DMA can only access the lower 16 Megs of memory.

    Yes, a valid bitch, but only if you are speaking of 1999's PC. Now that Microsoft and Intel have effectively killed ISA (the politically correct name for the IBM PC AT design from 1984), the IRQ and DMA problems have been solved.

    As for including 8088 CPU instructions, the burden is on you to prove that they significantly add to the cost and complexity of a modern x86 processor. My assertation is that the PC hardware prices don't lie -- even with 8086/80286 compatibility, x86 is still the best bang for the buck.

    Another way to think about this is that breaking backwards compatibility fractures the market, which reduces economies of scale, which increases the price. (But I'm somone who runs 8088 DOS programs on my Pentium II, so take it for what it's worth.)

    This argument can be extended to validate x86-based PDAs (look ma, no legacy ISA stuff!). If a software developer can ship the same or similar package on desktops and handhelds, it will increase economies of scale, and the number of handheld applications will explode.

    (It should be noted that the Mac rumor sites used to frequently toss around the idea that Apple would ship a Newton iMate-like handheld device, except that it would be built on standard Mac PPC hardware and run a modified MacOS. Excellent idea, in my book.)
    --
  • I have been unhappy with this trend toward bigger, more powerful machines. Todays PC's are HUGE. Not all of them need to be. Servers & such should be because you are going to want to load them up with everything, but for most people there is too much wasted space. There have been a few really nice small form factor machines released. (SGI Indy, Mac Performa, Ergo Brick, others...) Each of them had nicely intergrated features that provided most of what you need for computing. That part I like, but they lacked standards, and power (except for the Indy :)

    My ideal machine would be book sized, maybe a bit bigger, and have ports for everything. It would be able to run on a few batteries, or perhaps a very standardized rechargable unit. It would run a very reliable OS, and include features for power management, so that I would not have to do the whole shutdown startup suspend thing. It would just be running, if I was not asking it to do much, then it would not consume much power. This is the thing that Crusoe really adds to the mix. If the OS understands what the users demands are, it can maintain standards of interactivity while not wasting resources.

    This machine would be very networked. Wireless, IR, Ethernet, USB, serial (gotta have a console for the very lowest energy consumption!). Basically I don't want to give up any connectivity. All of these would be dynamic of course. If they are not used, they are turned off, or maybe done in software with only a configurable hardware interface that could adapt to the technology being presented.

    Each machine would have display and keyboard capabilities that you can take or leave. If a bunch of them are networked together, no need to use their keyboards, just use the one closest to you. Power users could just get 3 or four of these and use one as traffic cop for the others while they are processing.

    The OS should be able to communicate and utilize other resources of nearby machines with only a small direction from the users. Basically you should be able to stack a few of them up for hard things, and they should be able to get things done. Maybe you just might want to quickly distribute some data for a meeting, or maybe use your machine as a server for another machine already connected to a large display device. Maybe the data would only need to move when there are bandwidth problems, or you want the other party to own it.

    Good media outputs and inputs. None of this marginal good enough crap. Audio should be 48Khz 75Db. Video should be S-video / Digital minimum. If we bite the bullet now on this, it will get cheap fast. These things would enable lots of applications that people would want. Combine your favorite commercials for jokes, maybe grab stills from your home movies for prints to send to friends, in fact why not just let them have the whole thing.

    Maybe a few high school students want to assemble a great piece of music. They combine all of their machines to form a small mixing studio. Each of them provides input to one or two of them laying around, or borrowed to process and combine the data. Those same students discover a story of interest, and as a group possess the power to combine their vision into a compelling story that gets air time on a local radio, tv, or web broadcaster. Maybe they say the hell with it, and stream it themselves... It should be easy.

    Companies would like them because they are disposable. Networking the office could really be done using I-R or lowpower RF. Just bring the machine near a desk, and maybe it would ask for a password, or permission to connect to the server who is wondering if the user needs anything. Data stays put. When a user goes home, sensitive stuff might just stay where it needs to be. Their machine goes with them however.

    No matter how any of this goes, I just look at some of the cooler small form factor machines that were made, and they have way more appeal than the clunkers we have today. Lighter too.

  • If she meant it as a compliment, she wouldn't have been talking about replacing them.

    LK
  • Then s/he would be inaccurate.

    Jurassic park introduced the term "'raptor" to the common person, but it's full name velociraptor means that it's fast moving.

    There were dinosaurs of all sizes and speeds, the thing that they all have in common is they're all extinct(as far as we know).

    That was the obvious meaning, of the statement.

    LK
  • I don't think that supercomputers are built to be efficient at ANYTHING but calculations. The organizations buying those things don't care if they need to spend $50,000 a month on electricity, or if they have to cool the thing with liquid nitrogen. All they want are more calculations per second. For that purpse, Crusoe is ill suited compared to Alpha's, G4's, Athlon's, and Pentiums.

    They target completely different markets. Crusoe is made with portable computing in mind... They went over that time and time again in Transemta's briefing. Supercomputer buyers are going to scoff at the idea of spending $15,000 less per month in electricity, but having to wait an extra 2 months for their calculations to be accomplished.

    On the same vein, Crusoe's virtual machine design (i don't know how else to put it... the software that monitor's how much CPU performance a given program needs) also would not come into play in the supercomputer arena. They just run at top speed or no speed... No processor in a Cray for instance is going to go only 30% utilized, unless there just isn't anything for it to do, in which case why not just shut the whole thing down?
  • I can hook a computer into my brain as an external source of information. This computer can log onto networks, look up information and then compile results. My directed thoughts to the computer will my mode of data entry. My monitor will be my eyes or imagination. There is a link between the sensors in your eyes and the brain, intercept the link and transmit a different signal. Until this is done, everything else is really just a hack.

  • Yeah, but we're talking PDAs here. What's the maximum amount of RAM that a Palm Pilot comes with, 8 MB for the Palm Vx? It's not like I'm going to be downloading operating system distributions or scads of MP3s on them. For the quick and easy web browsing, mail transfer, and occasional telnet session that you'll be using a PDA for, 56K is more than plenty. This isn't something you're going to spend all night ogling pr0n with. That's what my laptop's for. ;-)

    Cheers,
    ZicoKnows@hotmail.com

  • Phased Implementation (Score:2)

    by Anonymous Coward
    First why don't we remove a misconception among some people: the desktop is not going to go away anytime soon, because whatever performance you can pack into a palm or wrist-sized device, you will always be able to pack more into a (larger) desktop device, and people always want more.

    FUTURE MOBILE COMPUTING

    First Phase (obvious) - miniturization/increased performance of existing devices: PCs in your palm, PDAs on your wrist

    Second Phase (easily deducible) - new devices which were not previously possible because of performance/size trade-offs: eg voice recognition on your wrist; 3D graphics modelling on your PDA

    Third Phase (getting misty) - new devices/functions which we have barely imagined (a whole stack of these)

    Fourth Phase (even fuzzier) - new devices/functions which nobody has even contemplated - can't think of any at the moment :-)

    These phases will obviously not all come from the Crusoe processor. Wait till nanotechnology starts having an impact and then start to talk about mobile computing... (Fifth Phase? Sixth Phase?)

    Enjoy the ride!

    Michael Richards
  • Here are some thoughts for mobile computers, which could differentiate them from a PC, through their nature:

    • Specialist systems. Not single-function, but not general-purpose, either. All you need is a limited subset of functions, according to location.
    • Morphing Computer Architectures. See above. You don't need every single feature ALL the time, but you will need them SOME of the time. The two options usually presented are "have them" or "miss them". But if you can morph an instruction set, why not expand that concept to the entire architecture? Model the computer after the environment, not the other way round.
    • General-purpose Interface, Single-function System. When you carry a mobile computer, you're not really wanting to do a wide range of things. It's doubtful you'll be trying to develop a new SQL database, port Linux to a new supercomputer architecture, play Quake 3, transfer the contents of Oracle 8i into Informix 2000, via DB/2, and calculate the exact odds of finding enough of the Mars Lander to fill a teaspoon. On the other hand, you WILL be facing times when you will need multiple input devices, all of which are 100% interchangable. Voice, handwriting, keypad, touch-screen, remote input, etc, would ALL be valuable.
    • Why have the computer INSIDE the system? After all, the bulky stuff (the screen, I/O, etc) is the static part, and so are the apps, for the most part. But what, exactly, you need at any given time is not. So it makes more sense to have a PnP processor, rather than a floppy drive.
  • Presumably, Transmeta are saying that "this CPU is not for the desktop" more for marketing reasons that anything technical.

    Taking on Intel with your first product could be considered commercial suicide. Taking on ARM, a small UK company, makes much more sense.
  • Even though this processor was designed for mobile use, couldn't you take this wonderfull vliw 1 watt low heat disipation processor core and just....up the juice on it? I mean an athlon uses what 30 watts (or something ridiculous like that), what clock speed do you think it would run at if you took it down to 1 watt. Is this 700 mhz processor possibly overclockable? (I don't know much about processor design...I'm purely a software geek)
  • ok, I can get the idea that everything is getting smaller, we'll have cpu's made of a few atoms and 100 terabyte hd's size of a penny, yada, yada, yada, but:

    what about big monitors? I was just thinking of replacing my old 15" with a 19". Also, while we are at it, what about keyboards and mice? Sorry people, but the pen thingy in Palm Pilots is not exactly a very conveniet input device.


    ___
  • If you look at the Newton2k, you've seen what an overpowered PDA can become.

    umm... Underpowered? My Newton 2100 has a 163 mhz StrongArm in it. It's still, after two years of hard, daily use, performing better than any of my other computers. It still outperforms every handheld I've seen. It's handwriting recog is accurate (except for the way I right "a", it always thinks it's "u"), and doesn't require learning Grafitti or anything.

    The Newton was just designed right. It isn't a desktop OS crammed into a handheld. It has the power of a desktop box, fits in the hand, runs for 24 hours on a charge, and handles any telecom or writing I need on the road, along with all of it's other features.

    Thanx for killing it, Mr. Jobs.

    8(

    I see the surge in PDAs and "net appliances" as the beginning of a breakout from the PC. On the other hand, there is always going to be a need for desktop computers, with nice big displays and room for expansion. I wouldn't want to edit a video or try making 3D using my Newt, or a Xybernaut. These new devices are extending the range of computing/telecomm uses, not killing off older variants.

    The Net was supposed to kill television, PCs were supposed to kill Big Iron, and TV was supposed to kill both radio and print. It's all about filling niche markets, and finding new uses for old things. Sure, in ten years, maybe most 'leet geeks will do their telecomm from handheld/wearables, but they will still have a keyboard and monitor someplace for those long coding sessions. Twiddlers and speech recog just won't cut it for a lot of uses.

    J05h (feeling long winded)

  • Tens of thousands (if not millions) of transistors on the CPU are dedicated to memory page address translation, and useless "backwards compatible" instructions that can run 8088 code!

    The 8088 is a dinosaur. As the PC has evolved there have been certain legacy hangers on that were left in for that ~5% of people out there who still need to work with 15 year old programs and nothing new is good enough.

    High speed wireless will do much more for PDAs than it will for obsolete desktops.

    Did you even READ my post? High speed wireless internet access will help make the PDA a great partner to the PC and when we can get FAST PDAs then they can replace the PC.

    LK
  • IMO, when PDAs get identical performance to PCs we'll have terminals to carry with us that we can plug into full size monitors and keyboards (& etc...) once we reach a destination, be it work or home. and while we're stuck in gridlock we can retrieve messages and respond to them as well.

    There's always the possibility of the mythical VR HeadGear wich can make the monitor obsolete.

    The way that I see it the PDA is held back by these factors.

    SLOWNESS!
    Storage capacity.
    Display quality.

    Once these things are on par with PCs then the PDA will have a chance to really shine. Who knows how long that'll be though.

    LK
  • How would it work in space? I think I read something once about satelites and spacecraft needing special hardware to survive in space. Could this apply there?

  • Ever heard of Jini? You sound like our friend Scott. Personally I wouldn't want my programs on some globally distributed network thats completely unsecure. Why should I have to buy dozens of digital toys just to have a powerful computer in my house? In such a world where every device is part of the system an operating system as we know it would be a major kludge so creating a "powerful open source operating system" would just serve to slow down my cell phone.
  • The "dark" side of the moon isn't dark at all, we just don't see it from here. Any besides why criminal tools and weapons advance there?
  • I know that there is something called the "Twiddler" that is basically a one handed keyboard. Anything else on the horizon that might work?

    Theres something I'm interested in, but haven't had a chance to use for real (I've used the demo java applets). Quickwrite [http]. Its very good for limited space input devices. I'd estimate the min space for it would be around 1"x1". (but that might be a bit difficult to use). Its not really good for long winded input. One handed, and can be used by left or right handed. Pretty fast too. It relies on the movement of a "pen" from the center, to a side/corner(s), and back to the center. eg center->left->center is 'T' (I think). and center->up&left->center is 'H' (I think). Basically, check out the site. If i ever get myself a PDA (personal digital assistant), I'll use that interface.

    ---

  • Engineers can solve lots of problems back in the lab as a post mortem that aren't feasible in the real world, yet. Often this is due to a lack of processing power that can fit the problem as a solution. Recently we have started to see this reversing itself in products like ABS and traction control, digital video and sound, cell phones, and many others. With low power/high performance this area opens even more. Here are some of the things I expect to see.

    -Consumer noise cancellation (Head phones that act like they are stereo speakers across the room, or liek you are in a sensory deprivation tank).
    -Consumer sensor suites. How many times would an image enhancement have helped you driving or walking. FLIR is just the sensor and first step, digital enhancement really makes it useful.
    -Improved wireless performance. We are getting to the point where some fancy signal decode/encode can be fielded that will make all types of wireless applications more reliable.

    These are the broad brush topics. When we delve into specific industries the amount will vary. As an engineer it is an exciting and interesting time. I just don't know if the Chinese curse applies :-0 .
  • and the cooling fan will feel good durng the summer months

    I think you need to check false assumptions here. Remember it's trying to get rid of waste heat.

  • Take a look at whe Steve Mann has been doing with video, etc with his wearables [toronto.edu]. Context sensitive as in the real world input being used to tell the wearable what to display. One use is when he gets to the market, the computer recognizes the market, and displays a list of items to be bought. Another use is in face recognition. This is one that I would love. I'm horrible with peoples faces. I can remember the face and the name, but I just can't seam to link the two together till I seen the pers a large number of times.
  • yes and you'll note i prefaced the whole thing with a big IMHO,.. :)

    Musta missed that. :)

    i don't, i don't think about it at all.. no more than i do turning a page in a book.

    Only when you're doing the most trivial things that are already stored in your cortex's "instruction cache", like browsing and clicking around.

    and who said i cared about 'most people',.. Joe Q. Public can bite me :) i'm only concerned about me, and geeks like me,.... ;)

    Wow. I just hope you're not the next head of Apple's HCI Engineering Department... :)

    in all seriousness, though, i think you're wrong. keyboards are much more efficient. find me someone who can write graffiti at 100 wpm :) you'd
    break the li'l palm.

    Still, direct neural interfaces are far superior. (Do I hear "mind control"?) :) I can see a combination of speech recognition and a better, non-QWERTY keyboard system gaining popularity in the near future.

    while CRTs are large and cumbersome, once flat-screens become cheaper, using a desktop won't be quite as annoying (or brain-cancer inducing :)

    Yes, but all the other disadvantages remain...

    just because you hate desktops don't assume everyone else does :)

    Yeah, but knowing that everyone else hates desktop gives me a warm fuzzy feeling. I guess I'm not a real individualist after all, then. Buggers :)
  • Some thoughts into how low power high performance processing may come into play(along with flexible LCD displays, laser based displays, etc)

    Cars with wireless connectivity. Laser or LCD based HUDs projecting onto windows, rearviews, etc. Range finders telling you how far each car is, velocity, etc. 2d map always projected on some corner of your windshield telling you street signs ahead or behind, traffic conditions, road conditions, weather conditions. Cars relaying this info back and for to each other as they start to slow down or pile up.

    PDAs with a monocle laser/lcd projection display. Sorta like the 'old' failed gameboy/3d experiment Nintendo tried? They used mirrors and red LEDs, I think. Display is a monocle, if voice is to be used, perhaps a subvocal microphone at the base of the jaw or something, and the 'pen' input would be your watch, more or less, if it uses grafitti. A larger surface, about the size of the Palm today, would 'snap' into this network for enhanced color displays and input options. Oh, mustn't forget all of this is wirelessly connected =)

    The Palm device would probably house the high speed wireless connectivity, of course. What would this be used for? I'm not that much of a visionary, it just sounds cool =)

    But it could prolly replace cell phones, pagers, beepers, PDAs, and stuff. Ugh, to many things to carry today anyway! Don't forget that the wristwatch device would have a 400mb HD and a processor fast enough to decode mp3s, if one were so inclined. Power is something else to be considered, though. Hm...

    Cell phones with voice recognition! Ugh, why, if the phone is supposed to be a audible tool in the first place, is it littered with buttons and menus and stuff that could be concievable voice activated? Anyone see the WAP phones with screen/PDA interfaces? It seems more natural to speak into it in the first place, since that's it's primary purpose!

    Milk cartons would have acidity and toxin sensors and the display cases would continually scan for containers with bad milk. This would literally require disposable sensors and computing!

    Heh, Rubbermaid containers with similar technology to tell if your food is going bad!

    Tires that actually self monitor (via sonar, radar, whatever) their condition, air pressure, wear, etc.

    Anyone with anything else?



    -AS
  • My personal feeling is that PDA-type devices are going to wind up moving out of the generic, mainstream "I'll carry this to business" and adapt to other market niches where big computing power in tiny packages would pave the way for great advances. Current PDAs/mobile computers tend to be generic, multipurpose devices; in the future, the same power of the PDAs will be applied towards more specialized needs where the power of the PDAs can be harnessed more effectively.

    For instance, most scuba divers use computers nowadays for a number of in-water activites. The more advanced computers not only monitor air consumption and predict dive limits, but some also include electronic compasses and GPS.

    In the future, with powerful computers, we could not only have such capabilities, but we could provide real-time water composition analysis, record current speed and direction, uplink to floating environmental buoys to keep track of topside weather conditions, have a constant directional pointer back to the point where we entered the water (or the dive boat we dove off of), provide for underwater "networking" to keep track of the location/equipment/health condition of fellow divers, and so on - all things impossible with current technology.

    With complex PDAs, environmental scientists could carry specialized PDAs that can take and analyze, for instance, air samples at a hazardous healthy site and remotely access a database to look up the chemical signatures. They might be able to provide very complex, multistory blueprints for building inspectors to easily carry with them. They may allow mechanics of all types of machines to carry very advanced, complex schematics around with them in an easy-to-transport device (for instance, an auto mechanic may be able to carry around the repair blueprints and instructions for dozens of different models of cars).

    While phone calls and web browsing may be the current envisioned uses, there are many, many areas of sports and recreation that would benefit greatly from having increased computation power in smaller and smaller packages. Having these devices be specialized means that the raw power can be more focused towards the things the person needs to do, without worrying about things like word processing or Solitaire.

    Anyways, my future thoughts.
  • If I had a great idea for a new take on ANY hardware, I wouldn't talk about it. Software is well suited to Bazaar-style development, but I would prefer to develop hardware in private. I'd develop the thing in secret, then publish the interface specs. (a la Creative Labs, Matrox, 3DFX, etc).

    I may be wrong, but I think with the barriers to entry being so high in the hardware development world, keeping your designs and ideas secret seems to be the only way to have a chance to do anything revolutionary.

    I'm still against hardware patents, but I wouldn't go blabbing my ideas on Slashdot, either.
  • I think the basic issue is misstated. PDAs are different from desktop PCs not because they have less powerful CPUs. They are different because of size: they have small screens and they must have non-keyboard non-mouse user interface. This makes all the difference in the world from the user's point of view.

    Let's say that we can now put a 800Mhz processor (with a proper MMU and all the supporting chipset) into a Palm. Would it mean that it's a good idea to run Linux on a Palm? No -- a keyboardless computer with a what? 4x3 inch? screen cannot usefully run a desktop-oriented interface (be it CLI or a windownng environment). Remember, our state-of-the-art user interface (WIMP: windows, icons, menus, pointer) was developed in the 70s at PARC. There has been no major advances since that time.

    The only thing where processing power might make a difference is in speech recognition. Speech interface to PDAs is a promising area and you do want to have a powerful processor for it. But this detail nonwithstanding, I would argue that for the PDAs to realize their potential we need a user interface breakthrough much more than we need a processor breakthrough (and Crusoe isn't it anyway).

    Kaa
  • (1) Run in hotter environments

    Wrong. Let's say a CPU is hotter than the air around it by 20 degrees: a Pentium needs a fan to do it, but a Crusoe can do it without a fan. So? If the air is 100 degree F, your processor will be 120 degrees -- in one case with a fan, in the other case without. I don't see higher tolerance of heat anywhere here.

    2) Run from within a totally air tight sealed metal box ...
    (3) Run in isolated environments...

    None of these is a desktop. These are industrial applications. The requirements for them are weird and varied, but have little to do with desktops. It may well be that Crusoe will do well in some industrial applications, but that doesn't mean anything about it being a "desktop CPU".

    Kaa
  • Well, it depends. I think it was US West Wireless that I saw giving one free text news service. Obviously the amount of data per user will be tiny, and they're hoping you'll pay to subscribe to more. And competition can do interesting things...
  • High speed wireless doesn't matter. I'm not going to be downloading Quake demos or using streaming video on a typical PDA. I don't need high speed. Low latency is much more important ... but still not a big deal.

    PDAs won't replace PCs, but they will complement them.

    While I can't play Quake on a PDA, I can carry around my player profile and configuration on one.

    While I can't view PDF documents on a PDA, I can beam it (IR, Bluetooth, whatever) to a local printer.

    While I can't watch movies on one, I can use my PDA to command my TV to access some MPG URL, and carry that URL around on it.

    Think different.

    MB


  • I M H O...

    sitting down in front of a nice 17-19" screen,
    and typing on a responsive keyboard, using a
    nice, accurate mouse to click on little pictures
    is just an aesthetic and ergonomically pleasing
    experience, and i don't think it will ever just
    go away. (well, at least not for a long while.)

    however,.. the use of the PDA (when it is designed
    correctly) is there, and it's nice to be able to
    pull out a palm and play rogue or take notes
    during a meeting. it would be good to be able
    to send e-mail or check up on slashdot, but right
    now -- as we all know -- portable 'net access
    is not too keen. it's both expensive and fairly
    unwieldy (i haven't seen a cordless modem that
    is chic.)

    so, yes, in a few years when wireless net access
    (or some other form of mobile net access, like
    say, ethernet plugs abound like public phones) is
    a reality, then we'll have that.

    right now there is a lot PDAs can do that people
    don't make full use of, and not everyone uses
    them (i still haven't bought one, though everyone
    i know has one just about..) colour screens
    are coming this year, from all reports... so
    that will be good.

    i really don't see anything "revolutionary"
    happening any time soon. if i could see something
    i'd be off getting it developed and making space
    in my garage for my millions of dollars ;)
    ...dave

  • He's talking GSM bandwidth here!!! Not LAN bandwidth.

    Thimo
    --
  • You're missing something: the biggest driver for Beowulf-class systems is the infamous price-to-performance ratio, not pure FLOPS. How are you gonna get better price-to-performance? with commodity hardware (i.e. low price) that has been designed for maximum performance.

    A Crusoe may fulfill the former criterion (their prices sure seem low enough) but it fails on the latter. A Pentium III- (or even a Celeron-) class CPU, however fulfills both. Now, if Transemta decides to use their technology for a CPU designed for pure speed, I could see how a Beowulf of those things may prove competitive, as long as it doesn't rely on non-commodity hardware (particulary motherboards and NICs).


    engineers never lie; we just approximate the truth.
  • We have always used advancements in science to enhance the limits of our biology. Glasses for improving eyesight, clothes for improving weather resistance, shoes, cars to travel, etc.

    I think that mobile devices will process tasks that are not possible merely by ourselves (duh). The clumsy interface of writing on your PDA will be replaced by voice recognition (and you thought that people talking on their cell phones is bad, just wait a couple of years and everyone will be interacting to a computer. "HAL, what is the closest THAI-MEXICAN restaurant? . ././.../.)

    Mobile computing devices will have wireless broadband, so you can run a server with the speed of a T1 right from your belt. I'm sure the people who have these types of PDAs will be exposed to continuous radiation, possibly causing cancer (?)

    It might even create to races of humans. Cyborgs who have access to information, communication (not the Robocop battle gear cyborg) and those without.

    You'll be able to Book Travel Plans (can now, even), Read the news (slashdot), Pay your Bills, Play games, talk to friends, have sex (assuming that the device can change your brain waves, who knows), etc.

    The screens on PDAs are way to small, I expect that future PDAs will have an interface that has a microphone, an earbud, and an optical monitor that is an inch from your eye, but gives you the detail of a 15 inch monitor. Maybe some sort of gloves that you can "twitch" or air type that would be faster than voice recognition will be availible.

    The PDAs will be cheap, but corporations will control the access to the network. They will make you sign yearly contracts and offer terrible service.

    But I guess if you think about it, why would you want a PDA if you can do everything that you need to do from your home terminal?

    To look like RoboCop.

    my 2 cents.

    -Snoobs
  • I don't haul hay or fly through canyons. I'm just a grad physics student, and I really want a PDA that will let my enter definite and indefinte integrals with a stylus. Someone combine Mathematica with a Newton and make me happy, please.
  • Anyone have info on this? I thought the newtons died out awhiel back... this a gras-roots new newton model??

    The Newton 2000 was the successor to the 130. Instead of the ARM chip it used a Strong-ARM, it had a backlit display, 2 PCMCIA slots, and a bunch of other goodies. Then Steve Jobs returned to Apple...

    Apple was going to launch Newton, Inc. as a subsidary - to let it prosper or fail on its own without too much interferance from the mothership. Jobs killed this (IIRC) the day before it happened (and about the same time he was killing the MacClones).

    The Newton survived for a while more (including an upgraded 2000, the 2100), but the handwriting was on the wall and Apple finally killed the Newton.

    I have a 2000 (never upgraded it to a 2100), and need to find a place to get it fixed (doesn't recognize screen touches anymore). It was a very cool and useful PDA in its day.

  • The obvious idea is wearable computers. Cell modem and CPU in a small backpack, plus a HMD, pointer device, and voice recognition. Poof, you're a gargoyle.

    Virtual tour guides ... universal translators ... scrambled cellular internet telephony ... starcraft on a road trip ...
  • Not only would this be great for clustering, but also for any situation where a large number of machines need to be in one physical location.

    I think of Co-Location Hosting services. In my experience, looking for web hosting providers, physical dimensions of rack space are one of the key elements when figuring costs for co-location services (along with bandwidth, on-site maintenance fees, etc.).

    In most Network Operations Centers I see on the web, there are rooms of rack mounted (regular size) servers, with the occasional slim Cobalt Raq system.

    Wouldn't this be a great niche for Transmeta to capture? If they can pile, say 600 slim servers into the space usually required by 100 regular-sized rack mounted boxen, this could save many people money. From the consumers paying less for CO-LO service, to the CO-LO provider saving money on NOC floor space, less fire-suppression units etc, or packing more machines into the same ammount of space. This would require less power on their end, and maybe even re-shape our current hosting business model. Virtual hosting could meet its demise if co-lo service could be brought down a peg.

    I'm sure there are many OTHER benefits to using low-power, low-heat, headless units in NOCs that I'm not cluing in to right now. What do the rest of you think?

  • Cringly mentions it in his latest column [pbs.org]. The winning PDA will be one which gives away programming tools for third party applications. Good tools and good documentation for doing that will be a key.

    If I had a PDA tightly integrated with my PC (running Linux, of course), that I could write new applications for easily, blah blah blah. Okay, all of my conditions are met today by one or more players in the market. I don't think it will come down to one killer app. There will be different applications for different markets.
  • Even if I could have a laptop the size of a paperback, I probably wouldn't carry it unless it had voice recognition and really good integration with my desktop (I'm really picky about keyboards. The only ones I like right now are the the ones dell ships.)

    I'm funny about keyboards myself. I used them. I don't like having to switch back and forth between a keyboard and a mouse. I want an interface that uses one or the other. The time I spend switching is time I spend losing touch with what I was doing. I can spend hours coding via Emacs and never once think about which keys I'm hitting. Put me on the wrong keyboard and that flow disappears until I get used to the new one.

  • The whole thing with a killer app is that it isn't something that has been done before. Visicalc wasn't a good spreadsheet. Visicalc was a visual calculator that people invented the term spreadsheet to describe. I think we've had them for long enough to know that PIMs are not the killer app that will drive portable computing. It's unlikely anyone will know what the killer app is until they happen to see it on a friends PDA and run out to buy a PDA the next day.

    I personally would not carry a PDA right now even if one was given to me. I don't like carrying junk around. I have a Nixxo Platinum pager because I don't like a big motorolla on my belt. I carry a Sharp non-programmable scientific calculator because it takes less space in my backpack than my HP, even though my HP would be more useful for the math class I'm taking.

    Even if I could have a laptop the size of a paperback, I probably wouldn't carry it unless it had voice recognition and really good integration with my desktop (I'm really picky about keyboards. The only ones I like right now are the the ones dell ships.)

    --Kevin
  • You know you can do almost all of that (and voice recognition) with some of the Windows CE devices out there now.

    But Windows CE is evil(tm).
  • The problem exists with existing cell phones anyway. Just add an earphone to your combadge if you like.
  • And why is this listed as funny. I am sorry, but lets face the facts here, I would say the HUGE majority of computer users play games and look at porn, amungst other "non" productive things. This is a completely valid point and it WILL be the porn and game industries that take it to the next level. Seriously.
  • 1. PC's have been out of vogue for 20 years now. Ever since their invention people have been predicting their demise. With that out of the way, I can get on to other more important things. 2. The "brain interface" on slashdot a few months ago. Pretty similar to "jacking in" with the Matrix. Hmm. 3. Head-mounted displays- small LCD panels that project in front of you. Maybe we'll all LIKE wearing glasses if there's a computer built into the frames. Also gives somewhere for an ultra-mini camera to do face recognition, etc. 4. "Virtual Keyboard", yeah, not as good as the real thing, but the glasses could project a keyboard onto a wall, your lap, or midair. Type away. Voice-activated commands aren't going to be any more popular than cell phones.
  • Hi Nick!

    Actually, this isn't a big bandwidth issue. The biggest bandwidth concern is maintaining a connection for just-in-case help--being able to reach out and touch via a cellular call. All the user should have to do is press the Help button, and the phone rings at the pre-defined phone number. The call recipient should be able to identify where the user is (GPS sent in the data setup for the call, perhaps, or maintained in a web-based database from continuous feeds) and be able to talk back. He or she could talk to the end user, or raise the volume and talk to people nearby ("can somebody tell me if Bobby is okay? I can't hear him...can anybody answer me?")

    That requires a device that is a power controller, a GPS receiver, a cell phone, and a CDPD data device (cellular digital packet data). But it doesn't really require that much bandwidth.
  • It is finally nice to see some real ground breaking advancements come into the market.

    The new Crusoe CPU will hopefully open up a whole new world of oppurtunities. Imagine, taking just about any OS out there and porting it to this new processor. Not only is it small, with low power consumption, but it can be upgraded at almost any time. Just think, fast , wearable computers that will have a decent batter life and won't singe the hair on your body.

    Wireless communications are becoming more readily availble at lower costs every day. Speed in this area keeps increasing, is becoming more secure, and will hopefully be available almost everywhere in the near future.

    We have optical storage media being created in the works that is not only fast, has a large capacity, and it will all fit on a credit card sized device.

    We are entering into a "Golden Age"
    Behold the wonders...
  • To tell the truth, the biggest thing I hate about PDAs is the user interface. Either you use a pen to write in a tiny little box (Palm Pilot) or you stumble-fingers with little toy keys (the WinCE camp.)

    My ideal 'PDA' would be something about the size of a paper notebook, that has a touch sensitive flat screen (that you could possibly write on... hey, playing the "visionary" here !). The machine would be able to do just about anything a PC could. (Net access, productivity tools, a "real" word processor, etc.) Something with wireless net access that you could use to surf the web, write a paper, read an "online" book or periodical, all with something the size of a magazine.

    Hmmm.. probably not really a 'PDA' but more like having the functionality of a notebook/laptop PC...

    Think Star Trek 'PADD'...

  • The Crusoe cannot compete with desktop CPUs and is not meant to. Transmeta's best chip runs at 500 MHz which puts it significantly slower than current desktop CPUs. Furthermore Crusoe runs all its x86 decoding in software which further reduces the amount of actual work the Crusoe can get done.

    This is why Transmeta made up their own benchmarks (red flag) rather than using the conventional ones. I imagine that if they used the actual SPEC benchmarks that they'd look pretty bad in comparison to a Pentium running at the same speed.

    Now their technology is extremely cool, and decoding x86 in software is a great way to conserve power and reduce die size. But it is not a catch-all solution for computing. If speed is what matters (desktop CPUs) then you aren't going to want a Crusoe. If you want low power and reduced cost from smaller batteries then the Crusoe is perfect. But you will get a performace loss.

    As for fan noise. It could probably be alleviated by getting a liquid cooling system of some kind. I think kryotech (www.kryotech.com) uses a refrigeration system to cool their 1GHz Athlons. They probably aren't as loud if you weren't overclocking. Personally I enjoy the constant hum of my computer. Very relaxing.

    -Uh-oh. I just took a shot at Transmeta. Here come the flames.

  • I work as an industrial programmer and I am currently working on a centrifuge system that is powered by PC instead of a PLC.

    The biggest difficulty with the project is that we are designing the machine for the oilfield and everything has to be explosion proof (gov't standard that defines safety in regard to explosed electrical systems etc). Part of that is that this whole thing has to be able to be hosed down occassionally environments.

    If our computer was built with at fanless CPU that could exist in a completely sealed case, my life would be a lot easier.

    I think as things like this develop, we will be able to have more and more devices controlled by computers. This gives the potential for much better control and monitoring of entire factories of computer controlled machines.

  • How do we enter data into the computer and how do we retrieve that data?

    Requirements:

    • Input modes: (all should be optional)
      • Keyboard or keyboard substitues (also mouse): Best used with a very short range transmitting device. This allows the user to pick the keyboard of his choice, from wearables to happy hacking.
      • voice: standard microphone jack
      • cellular data: standard and necessary.
      • other: RJ-whatever jacks for phone and lan
      • other: USB or similar port.
      • audio: standard headphone jacks.
      • video: a video jack usable for various displays from heads up graphics to monitors to projection. Note: programming would have to be true WWW style where no assumptions should be made about what the data will be displayed on. (yeah, I know...)
      • other: USB or better substitute.
    Issues: The desire to use radio frequencies for everything is understandable but as a proud daddy I can tell you the dangers of baby monitors. I don't need my computer hearing you type "Format" and wiping out my own drive.

    Actually, the core of the machine and the OS should be built under the assumption that we don't know what it does, how it stores or uses items, and how it gathers or distributes information. This bodes well for the open source community, however code will need to be a lot more object oriented than it is now. (That article by the guy at unreal applies here in spades. [no. I'm don't have time to hunt down the url. If anyone remembers, please respond.])

    A bonus. If we can make the assumption in coding that we cannot make assumptions, then we end up writing simplistic code without spending a lot of time on interfaces, but instead on data manipulation. If we then allow the interface people to design the nice interfaces for specific I/O products then we end up with a device that can be used on a decent level by people with disabilities. Certain software (Quake XXIV) may assume that you have a certain type of interface (much like many games today require a 3d card), but generic software becomes a lot more generic.

    -----

  • AI (Score:2)

    by 348 ( 124012 )
    My take is that the AI influence will provide many new avenues for technology to move in. Things like smart cars, smart houses etc, devices that provide more value that just turning on lights or providing a GPS interface. Products that will exploit the newer processing power to add real value to the daily lives of consumers.

    Never knock on Death's door:

  • I have 24.95 per month flat rate CDPD from bell Atlantic. (Here's the trick. Get the email only account -- they don't filter packets.)

    Anomalous: inconsistent with or deviating from what is usual, normal, or expected

  • Dinosaur? (Score:3)

    by Lord Kano ( 13027 ) on Friday February 04, 2000 @07:47AM (#1305556) Homepage Journal
    Who gives this person the authority to declare that the PC is a dinosaur?

    The PC has just entered it's golden age.

    HIGH SPEED wireless internet access is what will prevent PDAs from becoming the device of choice.

    When we can get PDA that are as powerful as that day's PCs and the ability to access our data no matter where we are, THEN the PC will be a dinosaur.

    The PC as we know it isn't going anywhere any time soon.

    LK

  • Call me a Luddite (Score:3)

    by Graymalkin ( 13732 ) on Friday February 04, 2000 @10:35AM (#1305557)
    Electronic toys are cool until you start to see them proliferate. Take pagers for example. They used to be owned by drug dealers and doctors, not 10 year olds get them from their parents. Every time I hear someone's pager go off I want to take it off their pocket and stomp it to pieces. Nothing personal of course, I'm just tired of everyone's day being interupted by someone else's pager. If it's on vibrate I don't give a crap since it bothers no one else. If everyone has a PDA or cell phone or what have you no one will ever relax again. All these new wireless technologies are what I like to call DistractoWare. You have to give a large portion of your attention to these sorts of devices and by doing so distracting yourself from doing anything else. I can drive and listen to the radio or a CD but can I drive and watch TV or read my email? I doubt you'd like to be near me on the road if I was trying. People are surrounded at work and at home with electronics and now want to have them everywhere. What do all the PDAs and cell phones really do for people? It's leading to a society ruled by the transistor rather than by the people living in the society.
  • sitting down in front of a nice 17-19" screen,
    and typing on a responsive keyboard, using a
    nice, accurate mouse to click on little pictures
    is just an aesthetic and ergonomically pleasing
    experience, and i don't think it will ever just
    go away. (well, at least not for a long while.)

    That's your opinion. Most people consider what you just described to not be aesthetically or ergonomically pleasing at all. In fact, most people hate it. They hate having to read from a computer screen, and like books better. They don't like the desktop PC's immobility. Sitting around is definitely not ergonomically pleasing. The fact that you have to consciously interact with the computer is in itself an indication of the failure of the PC human interface. All in all, I'd have to say that the desktop PC experience is something of which we should get rid altogether.

    Then again, that's just my opinion as well. ;)
  • So why not voice recognition on cell phones, since that's already the main interface pardigm for the device? Why is it WAP phones and all the newfangled cell phones have/use LCD displays and buttons, when it seems to make sense to just *talk* to the phone?

    Of course, don't get rid of the buttons(legacy support and all), but it makes as much sense for a phone to be spoken to as to use a keypad to enter numbers or names, text, dates, etc.

    -AS

  • Re:Dinosaur? (Score:3)

    by nhowie ( 38409 ) on Friday February 04, 2000 @08:03AM (#1305560) Homepage

    Dunno about USA, but broadband wireless communication is almost here in the UK, can't remember the exact data rates, although you can get 2Mb/s through current wireless technology (I doubt public access will be a great as that though, anyone have more info?). One of this years 'next bit things' is supposed to be the wireless LAN, think - no more ethernet cables cluttering everything up.

    Personally, I think that PCs and PDAs should be used together -- since, lets face it, you'll never see a 21" monitor on a PDA ;) I predict that centralised 'virtual' drives will become more and more common, to allow data sharing without having to constantly synch machines.

    As for power, most applications for PDAs won't require that much power, although I'm sure game developers will be able to proove me wrong :)
    --

  • Forget voice.. Use eyeball-tracking. (Score:3)

    by Convergence ( 64135 ) on Friday February 04, 2000 @03:32PM (#1305561) Homepage Journal
    Thats one thing I was thinking of for what would be a GOOD mobile interface for PDA's that you use all the time.. Why use voice recognition? Its slow, its noisy, and its disturbing to others nearby.. Its also unnecessary for a lot of uses..

    Think of it, an eyeball-tracker.. Look at an icon for a couple of seconds and it activates.. Look focus off of the top or bottom of the screen and it scrolls. Look at a link for a second and it activates.. Instant internet tablet that doesn't even need a SCREEN as such. :)

    Or combine it with a hand-keyboard or twiddler. (To act like a 'shift' key.)

    Or for a palm-pilot PDA, except for data entry, really what else does a palm pilot need?

    This fixes one of the big problems with voice recognition, in that its slow, while you can speak fast, correcting a mistake is very unwieldy and slow.. Overall, voice *is* pretty high-latency, at least compared to a keyboard, mouse, or eyeball-tracking.

    User Interface, just because everyone said that it would be the ultimate interface, (remember the newton and handwriting recognition), doesn't mean that it will be, or that it won't take 10 years to get it good enough to useful (Graffitti on a Palm). Personally, I think that the interface of the future will be very unexpected...

    Just because its possible doesn't mean that it can be practically implemented.. Just because its implementable doesn't mean it'll be reliable. Just because its reliable or implemented doesn't mean it will be useful.

  • Re:What about interface? (Score:3)

    by Col. Panic ( 90528 ) on Friday February 04, 2000 @09:18AM (#1305562) Homepage Journal
    Don't forget the eyepiece monitor. A virtual 17" screen that looks something like the Borg-Bill icon would be pretty awesome.

  • Re:I Have a Dream... (Score:3)

    by John Murdoch ( 102085 ) on Friday February 04, 2000 @04:23PM (#1305563) Homepage Journal
    Thanks for your comment.

    Actually, I see the problem as a software issue: to communicate we have to create an adaptive vocabulary that lets the user, and his or her guardians, determine a relatively limited list of commonly used words or phrases. You and I communicate via keystrokes typed on a keyboard--because you and I have learned a language based on characters that combine to form phonemes, which combine to form words, which combine to form sentences. The breadth and depth of English-language expression requires the ability to assemble speech with detailed precision--we don't need that kind of precision if we're using a total vocabulary of 400 words. ("I want to go home" can be thought of as a single word in this context.)

    Communication for the mute isn't the same as it is for you and me. Kids with very limited language skills learn to use "cheap talkers"--devices with a few pre-recorded sounds related to buttons. The buttons have symbols (from a symbol set named PCS, from Johnson-Mayer Company). The user presses a symbol and the talker repeats the sound. The problem with these devices are manifold: they're very limited (they might have 32 or 40 words); they're focused on single-word vocabularies (typically for very language-deficient kids); and they have no means of data collection--you can't tell what words the user actually selects. The key to this kind of adaptive speech is data collection--recording what the user has said, identifying words and word forms that the user has used, and playing back a day's conversations so that Mom and Dad can work on new words or phrases for tomorrow.

    There are many brilliant people working in bioengineering, trying to create a link between a person's nervous system and bionic/robotic devices. That is promising, and (I'm told) is deeply rewarding work for the people who do it. The kids I'm thinking of have little or no control over their own muscles (that's part of what cerebral palsy is) so connecting to their muscles won't achieve anything. What I'm concerned to do is to give these people a voice--so that they can communicate with the world outside of their bodies.

    (Truth in messaging: I'm a programmer, so I see a software-based solution to every conceivable problem. A hardware guy might view the matter differently.)

  • User Inteface is Key (Score:3)

    by termigan ( 118387 ) on Friday February 04, 2000 @08:06AM (#1305564)

    The user interface is the key. So long as you tie computing to a keyboard, it will feel a lot like a PC. Handwriting recognition is a step forward, sure, but it's still not ideal. I can type 60 words a minute, but I can't write that fast, so my input is hampered. Speach isn't the answer either. I can't quite picture the whole world running around talking to their computers. Too disruptive and public. Do you want the people around you to know what you're making your assistant remember? I think the leap we want to make is to that of a Personal computer assitant, the term PDA is too scope limiting. The term Data is just not descriptive enough.

    What interesting UI ideas are there out there? Heads up display is also neat but not ideal. There have been very few changes in history that have added new things to our outward appearance. Clothes have changed, yes, but they've been around for AGES. The things that are new we stick in a pocket or on a wrist. New things have been fairly unobtrusive. Do you think that will change?

    I treat my Palm as a second brain, something to remember the things I can't, do things that I couldn't do on the run before, something that is a less obtrusive alternative to the lower tech solutions. I suspect I'm not alone in that. Help me find a better assistant!

    Cheers!

    -Termi

  • No voice recognition, please... (Score:3)

    by Whyaduck ( 140952 ) on Friday February 04, 2000 @07:49AM (#1305565)
    I'm worried that newer PDA's and such are going to start using voice recognition (don't some phones already do this?). Cell phones in restaurants are bad enough. Imagine being on a plane full of people whispering into black boxes . . . yeecch. I know that there is something called the "Twiddler" that is basically a one handed keyboard. Anything else on the horizon that might work?

  • Distributed wireless computing (Score:3)

    by The_Grue ( 148492 ) on Friday February 04, 2000 @10:01AM (#1305566) Homepage

    Today's modern Hi-Tech addict owns at least 4 devices ;-):

    • a PDA
    • a digital Music player (MP3/Minidisk/...)
    • a Cellphone
    • a (digital?) wristwach

    In the future these these devices will communicate/collaborate with each other wirelessly using Bluetooth ("pocket clients" see later in my post) or 802.11 wireless networking ("pocket server") It cold look like the following:

    • Your watch "knows" your appointments, because it syncs wirelessly with the PDA. It will always show your next Appointment and give a discrete alarm (vibration ?), it will also notify you of incoming mails/calls without disturbing the whole cinema you're sitting in ;-)
    • Your PDA becomes a Pocket "server" which is storing your Data (Adressses, Appointments, MP3-Music[!], your personal documents, ...). It is able to communicate with the "pocket clients" via Bluetooth and with te world outside via 802.11 or one of the many future wireless phone standards. It carries everything you need to get along in the information age, stored in a nice high-capacity (polymer?) memory-chip inside. Most of the time it is left in the pocket, while you perform your tasks with your Input/Output devices (watch, "cellphone", earphones, the "pocket clients"). For more non-standard tasks you take it out of yout pocket and use the build in passive "digital paper"-like touchscreen...
    • Your Phone is just a Microphone/Speaker combination the size of a Lighter. All the other stuff a mobile phone normally does (The wireless communication itself, adress-book, maybe MP3 serving,...) is done by the PDA connected via Bluetooth. Maybe it also has some keys for dialing. Or why not dial with your wristwatch...?
    • For those who do not want to hear theirt Music via a phone's speaker there could be wireess earphones. The Music, which is coming from the PDA is controlled via the watch. The PDA gets the Music from its memory, via the broadband wireless phone-line or your wireless 802.11 home network.
    • The possibilities for additional uses/devices are endless: The Phone on your office desk knows the phonenumbers in your PDA... Expansion of your device is unlimited, more storage/new functions communicate wirelessly with the device instead of being stuck into a limited number of expansion slots... You always take the files you work on with you, to access them in your home or office network, on the PDA itself, or wherever... You can pay wirelessly with your PAD/wristwatch combination...

    In short words, your PDA will deserve the name "personal digital assistant" even more than it does today.

  • 1. email and internet surfing.
    2. built-in GPS and mapping.
    3. icq/gaim chat.
    4. latest hot stock reports.
    5. streaming audio/video.
    6. built-in webcam.
    7. integrated cell phone/answering machine/pager w/ caller ID.
    8. built-in CD/DVD player. (mini-Japanese techno. size- all under 3/4" (1.9cm)
    9. expansion/pcmcia slots.
    10. 8-hour battery.

  • Re:No voice recognition, please... (Score:4)

    by TummyX ( 84871 ) on Friday February 04, 2000 @10:44AM (#1305568)
    Windows CE devices, and a few others (like the philips genie cellphones) do voice recognition already.

    And voice recognition is GOOD.
    If we start building small devices, cell phones the size of a com badge for example, how the heck are we going to communicate with them?
    It's only natural to use voice recognition when dialing with a cellphone and other small devices, unless you want to carry around a toothpick.

  • A vision for the future? (Score:4)

    by Scott Robinson ( 108176 ) on Friday February 04, 2000 @07:58AM (#1305569) Homepage
    "PC" is an abbreviation for "Personal Computer." I don't believe the PC is obsolete, and it probably won't be for quite some time. Just like the first cars were known as "horseless carriages," we'll continue to use the term PC for what a new term will be needed.

    I see in the future, not a society where information is retrieved at libraries, in the corner of someone's home, or at a workstation in an office complex. The PDA will become an extension of a PC, more so than ever before. Technologies such as Bluetooth and CDMA will allow PDAs to directly connect to the Internet with bandwidth which seems "overpowered" to us now. Processors such as the Crusoe and StrongARM series will give our "overpowered" PDAs a "real" engine to run "real" programs.

    The Internet plays hell with our new definition of "Personal Computer." The boxs sitting on your desktop now will move to under your tables or hidden away in the basement. A silent blinking box with a wire to the Internet via your personal lan and net domain. Your PDA will connect to these systems and run the services YOU want. Mail, web hosting, data storage, and more data processing than your "overpowered" PDA will ever support. This can happen because the PCs will always have more space for more stuff than a PDA will.

    I used to think protocols such as the ones used in X-Windows would be given a new life when this happens. Your PDA would become a simple X client to your P.C. at home. If you didn't have a PDA, there would be public access terminals that you could give your username and domain to log into and VIOLA, you'd have "full" access. However, I've reconsidered and see a world where the PDA is a condensed information processor with sensoria. You can do little tasks (surfing web, editing documents, and equiv) on your PDA, but when you need that SETI@Home client running, it'll be on your PC.

    Maybe I've stolen quite a bit from authors like Greg Bear or Neal Stephenson. However, I believe we will have a completely different definition of the "Personal Computer" when we have a new architecture.

  • What about interface? (Score:4)

    by dharrell ( 113958 ) on Friday February 04, 2000 @07:47AM (#1305570) Homepage
    Great, so we can have a really small doohickey to do stuff quickly. The problem I see in the future of portable computing is interface. Get this little doohickey to understand me when I'm talking (or thinking) to it, then you've got a product. Until then, much smaller than a palm pilot, and you've got problems.

  • False assumption: "Desktop CPUs need fans" (Score:5)

    by Anonymous Coward on Friday February 04, 2000 @07:58AM (#1305571)
    To me, this is Crusoe's key advantage. A desktop CPU that needs no fan has tremendous advantages over the conventional fanned CPUs. I totally fail to understand Transmeta's "this CPU is not for the desktop" attitude. They are just plain wrong. Fans die after a while. A fanless CPU means that a desktop machine can:

    (1) Run in hotter environments such as outdoors or in desert climates, while still providing plenty of processing power.
    (2) Run from within a totally air tight sealed metal box (CPU heatsinked to case) box. This lets machines operate in dirty, dusty, smokey environments, that would gunk up fans in no time.
    (3) Run in isolated environments where high reliability is needed and maitenance personnel simply cannot check hardware often. e.g., radio repeater controller atop a mountain peak accessible only by helicopter. A cool CPU makes possible a machine with no moving parts to break down and lead to other failures.

    Get the TM chips into desktop CPU's now!

  • What I Want ... (Score:5)

    by Ralph Bearpark ( 2819 ) on Friday February 04, 2000 @08:10AM (#1305572) Homepage
    1. Face recognition mode. I look at someone - mentally hit the "who the fuck are you" button - and I get a head-up-display of name, context, wife/children's names etc. Could also be used to make "advice" on food choices etc.

    2. Deja vu mode. Hit another button and a data base of previous frames and situations is searched to tell me if this has actually happened before.

    3. "I told you so"/"But you said..." mode. Quick search and replay of what was *really* said way back then.

    4. Diplomacy mode. When you can't be bothered or you're too tired to consider what the right thing to say is, then a rolling AI-generated script appears before your eyes. Keep to the script and you stay out of trouble. Having the PDA activate my mouth and vocal chords automatically could also be cool but maybe a step too far.

    5. Drive me home mode. PDA takes control of my limbs to let me sleep/read/watch TV on the way.

    OK, rediculous impracticality limit reached. Time to go.

    Regards, Ralph.

  • I Have a Dream... (Score:5)

    by John Murdoch ( 102085 ) on Friday February 04, 2000 @09:20AM (#1305573) Homepage Journal
    I have a dream. A dream I have had since 1992, when I first met a boy named Bobby. Bobby has cerebral palsy, and is extremely affected--he can move his left arm at the shoulder, but his elbow wrist and fingers are essentially rigid. Bobby has an electric wheelchair, which he can control with his left arm. Bobby cannot speak.

    There is a cruelty to cerebral palsy--oftentimes there is a perfectly normal child trapped inside that horribly disfigured body. And, sooner or later, that child realizes that he is permanently, utterly, royally screwed. It will never get better--he will always be the Hunchback. (What is child abuse? Send a severely-affected CP kid to a school named "Notre Dame.")

    Bobby's parents heard of me because of an educational game I created for kids with limited language skills. They asked if I could help Bobby. Long story--but the resulting program helped Bobby go from a "spoken" vocabulary of 0 to 400 words over the weekend. But--the program was written in Visual Basic, which required a PC. I had a dream....

    What I've dreamt of for eight years is an Assistive Device. Plugged into an electric chair it provides the kind of smart battery intelligence that we take for granted with notebooks--but that is completely missing from wheelchairs. Gain #1--longer battery life for chairs. In the end user's chair we have the ability to extend the simple user interface for non-verbal users--they can "mouse" to the words or phrases they need ("excuse me", "is this the A4 bus?", "please let me off at the Whitehall Mall"). Using a recorded mix of Mom's voice and Dad's, the user "speaks" with a voice that is recognizably part of his family. Gain #2. With that UberPDA the end user can communicate with a buddy--"Help! I'm stuck on a sidewalk covered in snow!". With GPS and wireless our end user is never lost, and never alone. Gain #3. For the end user who is not permanently confined to a chair we can make the uberPDA wearable--using a simple handheld device he can identify the words or phrases he needs to say--and the device "speaks" them through speakers. If he is blind we can offer GPS-based guidance--and perhaps IR-based (or sonar?) collision-avoidance.

    I have a dream. With big MIPS, big bandwidth, and very, very low power consumption we can give sight to the blind, and a voice to the mute. We can take the shattered and the crippled and let them experience that most precious of dreams: independence. Autonomy. Freedom.

    In 1992 I wrote an article that stated that from that day forward I was a has-been: I had written the best software of my life, and from BobbyWrite onward all would be downhill. Perhaps--maybe--I was wrong. Perhaps, with the incredible advances of technology, we can take that nascent germ of an idea and make it really useful.

    One can only dream of the possibilities....

  • Portable Server (Score:5)

    by re-geeked ( 113937 ) on Friday February 04, 2000 @08:17AM (#1305574)
    While most folks think of the portable computer as an easy interface to a networked world, and a link back to all the disparate machines you need to use (home PC, work PC, ISP, soon house and car), I think it could become the logical place for storing your personal info and serving up the apps you want the rest of the world to see.

    That way, the various desks you encounter will be nothing more than generic ports for high-speed access, high-featured interfaces, and peripheral usage.

    What I'd like to see would be for this model to make it possible for my personal server to be THE secure, authoritative source of data about me (not the marketeer's databases) and to be the primary way that the world's computers (my employer, stores, government, banks, etc.) interact with me. If it also made digital cash possible, that wouldn't hurt, either.

    Mind you, storage and bandwidth of portables needs to advance greatly to make this real, but you asked for a vision...
  • Ok, so we have tiny processors that use barly any power. Does anyone besides me see this as the ulimate beowulf cluster builder? The Beowulfs I've either built or worked on were made mostly of first generation pentium or earlier architectures. Nevertheless I've gotten benchmarks over one GigaFlop. However having several full power processors running at once is a huge power drain. One system we worked on we calculated a $5.50/hour cost of running, based soly on electricity consumption. It also put off enough heat to fully heat the room in the dead of winter.

    With processors like the Crusoe, and other late make mobile processors, the power cunsumption would be dramaticly reduced, the heat output will be less, and if you have a good powersaving scheme in each processor, the power needs would dynamicly vary depending on the number of seperate threads needed at a given time.

    True, this isn't a mobile system, but it is a definant possible side-effect of these new processors.

    Or am I missing something?

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