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Due, Bush has been out of office for 6 years now. I know things are moving fast but please do try to keep up.
As defined by the World Meteorological Organization the classical climate period is 30 years, long enough for the short term variations to average out but short enough for longer term variations to be discerned. So a reasonable judgement would be how well the model output matches the 30 year running mean of global temperature. You'll have to wait 15 years to see how well they match 2014.
Better yet you can learn a bit more about how climate models work by reading these FAQs written by Gavin Schmidt, one of the principles for the NASA/GISS Model E, one of the worlds major climate models:
He also wrote a post On mismatches between models and observations that is very interesting. It shows that he understands very well the issues involved in models and data collection.
And finally here is an Ars Technica article on Why trust climate models? It's a matter of simple science.
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Nope. It's a waste of time.
Compared to what? Updating the firmware on millions of production routers and servers because a critical flaw made it into production? Paying out claims against the company that resulted from security breaches associated with the bug? Going back, after the code has already been designed, written and deployed to fix a bug that would have been tens of thousands of times cheaper to fix had it been caught instead by unit tests well before release? Testing has a cost, yes, but gambling that your code will get by without it can wind up costing you more than you'd ever imagined was possible. How would you feel about driving a car with software written according to that philosophy or banking software that get's it mostly right but every once in a while zeros out your balance for some strange reasons?
I'm stuck spending the night at an 8.3-meter with a bunch of people who're tinkering with something called "Visible Aperture Masking Polarimetric Interferometer for Resolving Exoplanetary Signatures” - VAMPIRES for short. Unfortunately, we're not lasering the moon, or doing spectroscopy of it during totality like we did last eclipse (you can measure elemental abundances and pollutants in Earth's atmosphere that way, nifty). But at least we're somewhere that it all happens 2 hours earlier in the evening than on the west coast.
With one out in the bottom of the fourth inning, and the Pirates holding a 3-2 lead, Todd Frazier skied a popup near the right-field foul line. As Snider attempted to make a sliding catch, the ball hit him in the face and skidded away. It was ruled a foul ball by first-base umpire Brian Knight, who ( http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/reds-win-challenge-vs-pirates-on-unusual-foul-ball-call?ymd=20140414&content_id=72073086&vkey=news_mlb)
In other words: Things are only ever new once.
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Great post from Bo!
I'm with you, only I'll add that a good part of C02 production comes form farming if you consider fertilizer production, Cow flatulence, fossil fuels to power the equipment, pump water and transporting food stuffs/raw materials etc. We simply cannot eliminate that, or a lot of people will starve and die.
The idea has been to move from fossil fuels to other energy sources. We simply can do that. Battery electric farm equipment and a nuclear power station is one way.
Point of precision: Cow flatulence isn't a significant source of greenhouse gasses. Cow digestion makes methane, but it is released at the front end of said bovine.
WASHINGTON — Google Inc. has bought the drone manufacturer Titan Aerospace, it said Monday, ramping up its efforts to connect parts of the world that do not have Internet access. The tech giant said the drones will augment its efforts to use giant helium...
Google buys drone company that Facebook reportedly eyed for purchaseSan Jose Mercury News
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Google to acquire drone-maker Titan AerospaceUSA TODAY
RTT News-NDTV-Android Community
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Times of India
THE economic cost of tackling climate change with known technologies would be three times higher than taking no action, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's own reports, Danish academic Bjorn Lomborg said yesterday.
The 3 Numbers You Need to Know About the Cost of Climate ChangeHuffington Post
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Google Inc has updated its terms of service, informing users that their incoming and outgoing emails are automatically analyzed by software to create targeted ads. The revisions more explicitly spell out the manner in which Google software scans users'...
Google updates TOS to clarify email scanning processCNET
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All the provision does is lift the statute of limitations on collecting an unpaid debt. I really don't see the problem with that. The actual problem seems to be that they're going after the wrong people to get their money -- and that seems to be based on a policy that allows the government to go after children who may have benefited from overpayments. Seems to me that the person you really should be going after is the one who implemented that policy -- or passed the laws that allow that policy.
Hmm, I look at the temperature outside, then I feel the temperature inside. When we're trying I'd say it works pretty good.
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where can we find a completely accurate (or even reasonably accurate) climate model?
Model's aren't completely accurate. If you're asking for one, you've got an agenda that is not science based.
Where do you find a reasonably accurate one? You could start at NASA, NOAA, HadCRU, DOE, NCAR, or the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, CERFACS (France) for some well known General Circulation Models.
Point is, the science is not "settled", unless everyone is agreeing on the mere fact that climate does change over time (which, seriously, no one credibly argues against).
There are things that are settled. The solar system is heliocentric. Human activity is probably responsible for most of the current warming. Plate tectonics causes continental drift.
what is the rate of change, and is is accurate enough to take action against?
Over the past decade or so, it ranges between 0.5 and 1 W/m st the top of atmosphere. It's accurate enough to know that reducing emissions alone almost certainly isn't going to avoid the 3C change that is considered dangerous. (If you're not concerned with dropping biodiversity too much).
If we overestimate, then our best efforts may well over-correct, and we touch off a new ice age.
I doubt it. Even above the tropopause sulphate aerosols last years and not decades. Lower technology methods such as increasing cloud reflectivity and tropospheric sulphate aerosols stop having an effect the week following the one you stop doing it.
Those are the methods discussed in TFA.
As it is, there's still too much slop factor, and the degree of confidence isn't high enough across the spectrum of scientists.
Big call. How much "slop factor" is there, what degree of confidence would be high enough across the spectrum of scientists?
Why do you need to be across the spectrum of scientists?
Wouldn't reasonable expectation based on a vast majority opinion be sufficient to act?
Was it primarily due to politics, culture, technology, medical/scientific knowledge... what? Most of what I just listed has bugger-all to do with the climate.
I think that you're mistaken if you think that politics, culture, technology, medicine and scientific knowledge are independent of climate. There are wars in the Norther of Africa now that are probably strongly affected by nomadic peoples having to wander into non-traditional lands because of droughts probably attributable to the anthropogenic part of climate change.
Wars affect politics and culture directly, and indirectly technology and scientific knowledge. Medicine? There are many medical effect of climate change that are behind studied.
1) climate does change, and trying to keep everything just like it is in the 1980s (or whenever) may do more damage than just letting it cycle naturally.
Naturally? Did you know that burning fossil fuels releases greenhouse gasses, and that greenhouse gasses cause the greenhouse effect?
There's nothing natural about what the climate is doing now, and neither is it "cycling".
before your investigations turn into actions, you'd damned well better know for certain what you are doing - making mistakes on a global level will have global consequences, and will last for a very long, long time.
If the action is introduce additional sulphate aerosols into the stratosphere (or upper troposphere), how long is this "very long long time?". Seven years? Eight?
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Oh, we understand that others are reading but that doesn't mean we have to change our ways to cater to your desires because you came here so you change to the local customs. Why is it that if I visit your country you will complain if I complain about it not being like the US but then you expect us in the US to change to meet your local customs? Hypocrite much?
Your complaining is like me reading the Guardian online and complaining about all the misspellings.
Tell him that M$ have done the same old, same old, attempted to correct their failures in the cheapest way possible by shoving the cost back on consumers. Can't get the upgrade to work, suck it up, format, re-install, repatch, re-upgrade and repatch and the restore you back up data, don't have backups, M$ answer to you, well, that's your fault for trusting their software.
MS is just so sad
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because if you go farther east you end up on the West Coast of the US which, we have already discussed, is West. so simple.
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