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Here are APR's 10 biggest upsets of the 2007 NFL season, based on the following criteria:

• Games are selected from all of APR's missed picks over the season.

• Analysis of other seasons suggests that the magnitude of matchup ratios through week 4 are not reliable, so only games in weeks 5 through 17 are considered.

• I've also disqualified 3 week 17 picks (SEA @ ATL, IND vs TEN, and PIT @ BAL) on the grounds that the higher-ranked teams lost at least in part due to the fact they were resting their starters, and don't represent true upsets.

The top 10 upsets of the 2007 season, as determined by APR:

• #10 Week 15: 1.1710 DAL (12-1) vs PHI (6-7)
  The Cowboys were coming off a near-miss against the Lions, and had to be wanting a convincing win to show they were back on track. Instead, Romo had his worst game of the season, and the Cowboys nearly lost the #1 playoff seed.

• #9 Week 16: 1.1898 GB (12-2) @ CHI (5-9)
  The Packers had a number of games this season where the offense couldn't get going, but a combination of defense and special teams bailed them out. This week, the Packers couldn't do anything right, and were facing a Bears team more than willing to play spoiler.

• #8 Week 10: 1.2241 IND (7-1) @ SD (4-4)
  The Colts have easily their worst game of the season after losing to the Patriots. The Chargers get their most embarrassing win of the season, which may have been the turning point, as they only lost one more regular season game.

• #7 Week 16: 1.2391 TB (9-5) @ SF (4-10)
  Is week 16 too early to start resting? Garcia's been hurt, and the difference between the #3 and #4 seeds isn't that big, but it's hard to argue finishing on a 2-game losing streak is a good thing. Or being 1-and-done in the playoffs.

• #6 Week 12: 1.2514 ARI (5-5) vs SF (2-8)
  After their 2-0 start, the 49ers were giving the Dolphins and Rams stiff competition for "worst team in the league". But the Cardinals couldn't seem to get the easy ones this season (losing to the Ravens, Panthers, and twice to the 49ers).

• #5 Week 7: 1.2532 PIT (4-1) @ DEN (2-2)
  The Steelers were (except for the Cardinals in week 4) blowing out their opponents by 21+ points. The Broncos had just two skin-of-their-teeth wins against the Bills and Raiders. But there's something about that mile-high air on a Sunday night, and the Steelers got their second loss to a team they really should have beat.

• #4 Week 11: 1.3147 PIT (7-2) @ NYJ (1-8)
  Once again, the Steelers play a bad team on the road, and find a way to lose. Given the way they finished, one could make a case that the Steelers were just overrated. But they still should've beaten the Jets.

• #3 Week 5: 1.3344 GB (4-0) vs CHI (1-3)
  Both the Packers (4-0) and Bears (1-3) had surprising starts to the season. The Packers were the favorite, and easily won the first two quarters, leading 17-7 at half time. But in the second half, the Bears had a flash-back to what they were like in 2006, outscoring the Packers 20-3.

• #2 Week 6: 1.3402 SEA (3-2) vs NO (0-4)
  The single best argument that the NFC West is the worst division: the division-leading Seahawks can't get a win at home against the 0-fer Saints.

• #1 Week 10: 1.3547 NO (4-4) vs STL (0-8)
  I suppose it's embarrassing for any team to give an 0-8 team its first win. Even moreso for the Saints, who were on a 4-game winning streak, and doing their best to make a run for the playoffs.

The second criteria above (no games before week 5) actually only eliminated one game from contention:

• Week 4: 1.3991 HOU (2-1) @ ATL (0-3)
  Given their standings at the time, as well as at the end of the season, I suppose this is something of an upset. But I don't see it anywhere in the top 10, and certainly not the biggest of the season.