You heard wrong. The estimate is that it will account for about 20% of Amazon's profit in 2013. It is growing faster than the rest of their business, though.
Just go to Vegas or look up the current World Cup odds at any online sportsbook and it is very likely that these odds are better predictions than whatever they came up. These sportsbook odds are based on actual money bet by people who know something about sports betting instead of financial types. If these quants were actually confident that they had some sort of an edge, they would put their money where their mouths are (and affect these sportsbook odds). Of course, these sportsbook odds are also affected by amateurs, but the same is true with almost anything else, like the stock market. Another issue is the smaller liquidity compared to the stock market, but the amount of money bet on the World Cup should be large enough to make it less of an issue.
The court upholds all major decisions of the commission, including the record half a billion Euro fines. Most importantly, it smacks down MS entire defense line of "we can't make interoperability possible because we need to protect our copyrights and patents"."
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