Want to read Slashdot from your mobile device? Point it at m.slashdot.org and keep reading!


Forgot your password?
For the out-of-band Slashdot experience (mostly headlines), follow us on Twitter, or Facebook. ×

Comment: Bull...... (Score 1) 493 493

They are amuck these researchers. There is validity to the bias. The unfortunate problem for them is that they can't actually fix the problem without making the problem worse.

The problem is being fixed already. It will take at least a generation of teachers to fix. This generation cannot fix it. It may not get fixed next generation either. The tensors in the equation are too tight. Massage them and they blow back in your face.

Comment: Re:As one of the few people here... (Score 1) 208 208

In Orlando, Florida, before cell phones and texting were a problem at all (1992), I used to watch myself go through a dark yellow light and then watch the next 8 cars go through after me. It was so bad that Red lights were almost viewed as green lights because the people on the cross street had to wait for all the people going through red lights before starting, which was just about when their red light started.

Bad driving is everywhere. It doesn't need texting to make it worse. It was already worse.

Comment: Re:The BBB For Science (Score 2, Insightful) 86 86

They are only acting as the authority to point out the problems. There are huge problems in epidemiology. The really useful data gathered by epidemiology is not the positive correlations, it is the non correlations. This presents a rather ugly problem. The data that people find interesting are the positive correlations. With the exception of 1 or 2 studies, these are pretty much worthless. The data that shows a link isn't there is what is really useful. This is the source of all the bad research.

If you look at epidemiological studies, you find lots of RRs, HRs, and ORs (Relative Risk, Hazard Ratio, Odds Ratio). The confounding factor that is ignored is the Survival Ratio. The ratio of the survivors of doing something to the survivors of not doing that something. This number is almost always 99.99...% One exception is lung cancer and smoking. The survival ratio there is 92%. 92% of people who smoke their whole lives do not get lung cancer. (some simplification here).

Comment: Oh Look -- (Score -1) 497 497

Yet another bloke claiming settled.

Lovely RED chart at the top imbuing you with an overwhelming sense of overheating.

Then you find the "proof" of warming down at the bottom. A carefully excised anomalous temperature chart that. 0.5C total range with a tail pointing down.

Plot the temperature folks. It ain't hard. BEST has it available for free. http://berkeleyearth.org/data

All you have to do is parse and plot. I have been pawing through the data from each station. Temperature ranges everywhere. Some really cool ones in Eastern Russia. No where can you see increases over the last 150 years. Way to close to a flat line.


What the iowahawk talks about in the averages for schools is relevant to the discussion of temperatures.

Comment: Reminded of a Parallel Computing Problem (Score 2) 239 239

Way back in 1993, I visited an atomic laboratory in Pennsylvania. On the tour, they showed us the 30,000 core computing machine they had purchased several years before. "We still can't program it".

30 seconds later he pointed to the next piece of metal.

This is our 120,000 core computer.

I raised my hand "Why did you buy a 120,000 core machine when you can't even program the 30,000 core machine!"

"Well it's faster."

one of my early lessons in big companies attacking the wrong problem.

Comment: Remember to look at the data from a grand view (Score 1) 967 967

here is a picture of the CRU data they released recently. http://www.io-solutions.com/WorldTemps1700-2011wAnoAveCount.jpg

ALL OF IT. That red line in the middle is the GISS temperature anomaly. The Orange dots are the simple average of each months data. All of the gray dots are dots experienced somewhere on the planet.

My analysis.

1. GISS temps seem to match CRU temps.
2. The warming visible if you just look at the Anomaly is almost invisible if you look at the range of temperatures.

Basically you have a bunch of people examining the leaves of a tree in a forest and forgetting to keep track of the forest.

The forest does matter.

Comment: CRU Data (Score 1) 821 821

Here is the CRU Date plotted against time.


That is all the data mind you. The gray dots are station data. The GISS Anomaly Temp is in red. The Simple Mean is in Orange. The black on the bottom is the number of measurements taken. The darker the gray dot the more stations reported that temperature.

Yes this is sophomoric, but basically it tells me someone is playing Charting games to make this look terrible.

Comment: Programming Languages (Score 1) 250 250

Learning a new language doesn't take huge amounts of time. Watching the next wave of 'tools' come washing over the side that will make me more productive because it "just does it", makes me laugh. If all anyone does is what the next tool was designed to do, it just does it, but for some reason no one ever wants to stick just with what it does and suddenly I am figuring out how to twist the new tool to do what the inspired people want.

I suspect the real lesson I need to learn well is "Use programming to make your life easier, don't attempt to make a living programming".

Every time I hear a manager say "That's not hard to do is it?", you should be able to do that in a couple of minutes, I cringe.

Comment: Re:you mean Mike "HOCKEY STICK" Mann? (Score 0) 961 961


Here is a chart of the GISS anomaly (in red) plotted over the CRU raw data. This isn't the entire history of the earth of course, but it does represent the raw data associated with the Claim the earth has a fever.

I am not sure I can quite agree that the earth has a fever.

Comment: Re:Ignorance is diverse as well as widespread (Score 1) 1038 1038

Which only proves that event those educated can be baffled by Bull#*@). Skeptics don't close their minds to any of the things stated, they just realize that its nonsense. James Randi repeatedly tries to expose such concepts as Feng Shui, Astrology, etc with double blind tests. People who are in the fields though DO NOT WANT double blind tests because nothing shows up.

Nothing wrong with massage, but it is also subject to the same idiocies as Feng Shui.

The magic though is that people will pay you more if you do make them believe. I don't blame you for believing. It probably keeps food on your table. That is the number one rule that should never be forgotten.


+ - OS X Leopard firewall flawed 1 1

cycoj writes: German IT magazine Heise takes a look at the new OS X Leopard firewall. They find it flawed. When setting access to specific services and programs for example to only allow SSH access, they found that a manually started service was still accessible. From the article:

"So the first step after starting Leopard should be to activate the firewall. The obvious choice to do so is the option to "Set access to specific services and programs", which promises more control over network traffic. Mac OS X automatically enters all shared resources set up by the user, such as "Remote login" for SSH servers, into the list of accessable resources.

However, initial functional testing quickly dispels any feeling of improved security. A service started for testing purposes was able to be addressed from outside without any difficulty. The firewall records this occurrence."

Even with the firewall set to "Block all incoming connections" ports to netbios, ntp and other services were still open.

"Specifically these results mean that users can't rely on the firewall. Even if users select "Block all incoming connections," potential attackers can continue to communicate with system services such as the time server and possibly with the NetBIOS name server."

Work expands to fill the time available. -- Cyril Northcote Parkinson, "The Economist", 1955