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Comment: Re:Bad news for ESPN (Score 1) 139

by u38cg (#48157281) Attached to: HBO To Offer Online Streaming Without TV Subscription
Bit once you're in that position, why wouldn't the programme maker simply sell the program directly? For example, the fifth season of Breaking Bad came pretty close to not getting made; if the channel had dropped it and the makers had simply distributed it online, I somehow suspect it wouldn't have done too badly.

Comment: Re:Oblig xkcd (Score 1) 220

by u38cg (#48140217) Attached to: VeraCrypt Is the New TrueCrypt -- and It's Better
There are 50! possible passwords formed by the bills, yes. I admit that this makes a massive difference to my analysis: now you're talking on the order of 10^53 years. Ramp it up to a trillion guesses a second and you're down to 10^44 years. As for the practicalities, it's not perfect, but it is at least plausible, and I struggle to see that you're going to prove that the pile is as-found.

Comment: Re:Don't over generalize (Score 1) 716

by u38cg (#48129995) Attached to: Why the Trolls Will Always Win

The owner's insurance company

Rape insurance is not a thing. And the police would not tell you that your car had, in fact, not been stolen. The point is that women ALREADY TAKE RESPONSIBILITY for not getting raped. The complaint is that when a woman is discovered to have not followed one of these myriad bullshit rules is that the rapist is then somehow not culpable, or she is seen as being partly culpable. Women don't need lectured on personal safety. They do need people like you to not lecture them on how "rape isn't a special case".

Math

Statisticians Uncover What Makes For a Stable Marriage 445

Posted by samzenpus
from the by-the-numbers dept.
HughPickens.com writes Randy Olson, a Computer Science grad student who works with data visualizations, writes about seven of the biggest factors that predict what makes for a long term stable marriage in America. Olson took the results of a study that polled thousands of recently married and divorced Americans and and asked them dozens of questions about their marriage (PDF): How long they were dating, how long they were engaged, etc. After running this data through a multivariate model, the authors were able to calculate the factors that best predicted whether a marriage would end in divorce. "What struck me about this study is that it basically laid out what makes for a stable marriage in the US," writes Olson. Here are some of the biggest factors:

How long you were dating: (Couples who dated 1-2 years before their engagement were 20% less likely to end up divorced than couples who dated less than a year before getting engaged. Couples who dated 3 years or more are 39% less likely to get divorced.); How much money you make: (The more money you and your partner make, the less likely you are to ultimately file for divorce. Couples who earn $125K per year are 51% less likely to divorce than couples making 0 — 25k); How often you go to church: (Couples who never go to church are 2x more likely to divorce than regular churchgoers.); Your attitude toward your partner: (Men are 1.5x more likely to end up divorced when they care more about their partner's looks, and women are 1.6x more likely to end up divorced when they care more about their partner's wealth.); How many people attended the wedding: ("Crazy enough, your wedding ceremony has a huge impact on the long-term stability of your marriage. Perhaps the biggest factor is how many people attend your wedding: Couples who elope are 12.5x more likely to end up divorced than couples who get married at a wedding with 200+ people."); How much you spent on the wedding: (The more you spend on your wedding, the more likely you'll end up divorced.); Whether you had a honeymoon: (Couples who had a honeymoon are 41% less likely to divorce than those who had no honeymoon)

Of course correlation is not causation. For example, expensive weddings may simply attract the kind of immature and narcissistic people who are less likely to sustain a successful marriage and such people might end up getting divorced even if they married cheaply. But "the particularly scary part here is that the average cost of a wedding in the U.S. is well over $30,000," says Olson, "which doesn't bode well for the future of American marriages."

Comment: Re:Don't over generalize (Score 1) 716

by u38cg (#48128655) Attached to: Why the Trolls Will Always Win
However, no-one would question that what actually occurred was, in fact, theft. No-one would ask whether the car owner wanted it to happen. No-one would have suggested the victim should have had a less attractive car.

In case you're not sure about this, women are already pretty aware that dark alleys are not a good place to be at 2am. It really doesn't help to suggest that they should modify their behaviour further.

"In order to make an apple pie from scratch, you must first create the universe." -- Carl Sagan, Cosmos

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