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Comment: Re:Not going to be as rosy as the YES! campaign sa (Score 1) 491

by u38cg (#47929215) Attached to: Scotland's Independence Vote Could Shake Up Industry
Yes, but when you are running countries, you burn through billions pretty quickly.

It is not the Bank's debt; it is the UK government's. You can read the DMO contracts if you like. And the debt does not have a monetary purpose: it is issued to finance government spending.

You're right, sterlingisation can't be blocked, but full-on currency union certainly can. I don't think anyone in the Yes camp gets that no-one in Westminster is interested in entering into a currency union - not with Europe, and not with Scotland either. What's in it for them?

Comment: Re:Not going to be as rosy as the YES! campaign sa (Score 1) 491

by u38cg (#47926971) Attached to: Scotland's Independence Vote Could Shake Up Industry
The largest field discovered in the last 25 years produces 0.2m bpd - included in the 1.5m figure - and you think that supports your argument how, exactly?

You make the assumption that the planet will not transition to a primarily renewables energy mix. Given that a number of renewable sources are already competitive with fossil fuels and investment at scale is only beginning in this sector, I would suggest that is a hell of an assumption to hang your country's prosperity on.

Comment: Re:Thinly veiled campaigning (Score 1) 491

by u38cg (#47926687) Attached to: Scotland's Independence Vote Could Shake Up Industry
Sadly, the chances are it will be cataclysmic. Scotland's spending and tax revenues balance at the moment only through using oil money. Oil will last for ten, fifteen, twenty years if we're lucky. Then we will be sitting on an NHS with an aging, sicker population. No-one - and I really do mean no-one - has a cogent explanation of how Scotland will deal with this.

Comment: Re:Not going to be as rosy as the YES! campaign sa (Score 3, Insightful) 491

by u38cg (#47926621) Attached to: Scotland's Independence Vote Could Shake Up Industry
No, I'm afraid you don't understand a few things. Firstly, Scotland's oil is small beer on the global stage. The North Sea produces ~1.5m bpd, OPEC alone is something like 30m. Scotland could turn off the taps and the planet wouldn't even blink.

So, the inrush of global partners wouldn't happen. More to the point, why would they rush to jump into bed with a government that has already stood up and said it is seriously considering reneging on UK debt? Which, by the way, is not the norm for newly independent countries and would be remembered by the markets. If they lent at all, they would certainly require paying for it. You really want to pay Greek interest rates on your government debt?

Think Venezuela, not Norway.

Comment: Re:Tax? (Score 1) 323

by u38cg (#47924815) Attached to: New Global Plan Would Crack Down On Corporate Tax Avoidance
While I agree with your philosophy, in practice what happens is that companies become massive tax avoidance holes. People put their personal wealth in investment companies, which simply accumulate and accumulate income with no tax being paid except on that which the owner withdraws, which once you've bought a house, farm, car, helicopter and country club membership is not all that much.

Prediction is very difficult, especially of the future. - Niels Bohr

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