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turg's Journal: Election prediction 22

Journal by turg

The spreadsheet has spoken. Here's my prediction. I'm giving the Liberals far more of Quebec than any other prediction I've seen. A surprise to me too, but I'm sticking with it.

Seats:

Liberal. . . . 121
Conservative . 108
NDP. . . . . . .33
BQ . . . . . . .45
independent. . . 1

And the popular vote:

Conservative . 29%
Liberal. . . . 35%
NDP. . . . . . 17%
BQ . . . . . . 12%
Green. . . . . .6%
Other. . . . . .1%

Breakdown by province or territory

. . . . . . . BC .AL .SK .MB .ON .QC .NB .PE .NS .NL .YK .NT .NU
Liberal. . . . 6 . . . 2 . 4 .60 .30 . 6 . 3 . 3 . 5 . . . 1 . 1
Conservative .24 .27 . 7 . 6 .35 . . . 3 . 1 . 3 . 2 . . . . . .
NDP. . . . . . 5 . 1 . 5 . 4 .11 . . . 1 . . . 5 . . . 1 . . . .
BQ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Independent. . 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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Election prediction

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  • As long as Canada remains an easily enterable country such that I can vacation in Banff, ski in Whistler, and smoke up in Gastown, I really don't care what you do all the way over there on the easter half.

    Leave us Freedom-loving Americans here on the West coast alone!
  • Curious, but why would you have Quebec give 30 seats to the Liberals, when they are hated by everyone here, both at the provincial and federal level?

    Me, I was going to park my vote with the bloc, but I found out that the greens are running here, so they're getting mine.

    There's fewer than 20 seats on island of Montreal, and most of these aren't even safe liberal seats any more. 15 to 20 may be more realistic for the province as a whole, which, if your numbers are correct for the rest of the country, would

  • Ontario? (Score:3, Insightful)

    by tomhudson (43916) <barbara...hudson@@@barbara-hudson...com> on Saturday June 26, 2004 @03:44PM (#9538698) Journal
    Looking at your numbers a second time, I think you also put Liberal support in Ontario too high. People I've talked to (I have sisters who live there) are PISSED! They'd vote for a goat before they'll vote Liberal. Right now, it's a question of how many votes the NDP will leach away from Conservative support, not Liberal support.

    In other words, I'm saying minority Conservative government.

    Any way, I'm voting Green (it was a choice between NDP and BQ, which isn't much of a choice, until I saw that the Greens were running here). Who are you voting for?

    • I think it depends ... I'm in Ontario, and while many of the folks I know are not happy with what McGuinty's done, they can (generally) separate the provincial Liberals from the feds ...

      Mind you, as someone who grew up in the West, I don't know that I can be considered a regular Ontarian ...

      -- YS
      • Yosemite Sue wrote:
        ... I don't know that I can be considered a regular Ontarian ...

        You could always eat more fibre :-)

        ... or come down here and have some poutine ... that'll get you going if the cholesterol doesn't kill you first.

      • Where are you in Ontario?

        BTW, I've got a long reply to Tom below, if you're interested.
        • I'm in the Centre of the Universe. ;-)

          Election-wise, I'm in the Willowdale riding in North York. FWIW, I've been seeing lots of Liberal signs in the neighbourhood, with an occasional Conservative sign here and there ... Not sure if that really means much, though.

          -- T
          • Beaches/East York riding here. As far as signs go, it's NDP out in front with Liberals close behind, Green Party third, and a just a handful of Conservative signs.

            The ratio of signs doesn't really represent the ratio of votes. People voting Liberal or Conservative don't see as much need to trumpet it as NDP or Green.
            • Yeah, I don't think that the signs are a very reliable measurement of support. (The Beaches area is traditionally one of the stronger NDP ridings, right?)

              Speaking of signs ... Have you seen the signs of people running under the "PC" party? According to a little news bit I saw last week, the party is the "Progressive Canadian" party - but the signs actually say "Progressive Conservative". They're mostly blue, and seem to be designed to mimic the Conservative ones ...

              -- YS
              • by turg (19864) *
                Well, in the provincial election the NDP got 52% of the vote here with 7 candidates on the ballot (the Beaches is a strong NDP zone and the NDP candidate was the former mayor of East York, so that covered both halves). But Maria Minna has been the Liberal MP since 1993. She's a good community organizer (and she and Peter Tabuns, the NDP candidate have been pulling out all the stops in this campaign). Last federal election, she got more than twice as many votes as the NDP who were second place (and who had a
    • Well, I've got the Liberals dropping from 99% of the seats in Ontario to less than 60%.

      The vast majority of urban ridings in Ontario would never go to Stephen Harper, no matter what the Liberals do. For example, I'd be absolutely shocked if the Conservatives got as much as 10% of the vote in my riding (but it's neck-and-neck between the NDP and Liberals. It might even come down to a few votes. Beaches/East York -- watch for it). I think you greatly overestimate the Conservatives in Ontario. If it wasn't fo
      • Besides, if my prediction was the same as what you were reading elsewhere, what would be the point of making it? :-)
      • Too bad they didn't go back to when the Liberals first came back into office. The conservatives under Mulroney had 2 back-to-back terms (the first with the largest majority in Canadian history).

        I remember telling everyone that the conservatives were going to lose official party status, and they all looked at me like I was nuts - there was no way that they were going to go from the party in power to les than 12 seats - but they then went on to lose all but 2.

        Canadians have a habit of punishing the governm

        • Nevertheless, it is up to the Governor-General to determine who gets to form the next government

          I don't think that's entirely true. If the incumbent PM believes he has the confidence of the house, he gets the first chance to form the government and the GG can't give it to someone else until the incumbent's failed at it.

  • Well, the latest poll numbers are now in, and they basically agree with what I've been saying:

    Voters were asked: Thinking of how you feel right now, if a federal election were held tomorrow, which of the following parties' candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support?

    * Liberals: 32 per cent (up one percentage point over a June 22 poll)
    * Conservatives: 31 per cent (up three points)
    * NDP: 17 per cent (up one point)
    * Bloc Quebecois: 12 per cent (unchanged)
    * Greens: 6 per cent (unchange

    • For the record, electionprediction.org has now called every seat.

      Nationwide
      Liberal Party 122
      Conservatives 104
      N.D.P. 29
      Bloc Québécois 52
      Other 1

      Ontario
      Liberal Party 66
      Conservatives 32
      N.D.P. 8

      Quebec
      Liberal Party 23
      Bloc Québécois 52

      • And, for the record, my 2 cents :-)

        The Liberals will get less than the 23 seats predicted for Quebec,

        They will also get less than the 66 seats predicted for Ontario
        Conservatives win more seats than Liberals

        Oh, did you see the leader of the Green Party on the news last night? This guy is NOT getting my vote. He's supposed to be a motivational speaker (a "profession" I've always mistrusted), and it's painfully obvious why he's gotten into politics - he NEEDS to quit his day job. He can't speak! Wel

        • He's also a former Tory. And the Green Party platfrom has adopted some alien-sounding ideas like "tax cuts create jobs"
          • It's just that this guy actually started giggling on national tv last night when explaining how he was going to forward a copy of the green party's environmental plan to the leaders of the other parties. And um ... umm'ed so many times while saying it. Heck, even I've done a hell of a lot better in impromptu interviews on tv, without a podium, without a staged event.

            There's an old saying that we get the government we deserve. WTF did we do to deserve this sorry state of affairs?

            Well, catch you 2nite. Go

    • by turg (19864) *
      Whoah! The Liberals are gaining seats in the Maritime provinces. Three more seats than I gave them.
      • Just goes to show that scare tactics work.

        The voters will remember this next time around ...

        In the meantime, Layton gets to be the tail wagging the dog.

13. ... r-q1

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