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Journal: /r/button 2 2

If you allocated F(t) seconds of ripple credit (in HRS) for every user with flair class ( F = { (60,0) , (50, 10), (40, 20), (30,30), (20,40), (10,50), (0,0), {other,0} } ) what is your expected value of this offer?

Given there's roughly 500,000 people with a flair class you'd think it'd be a lot...but it sure seems like the overwhelming majority of the 500,000 chose to feed in '60' or 'other' and it's unclear that would change. It depends on the distribution of the random variable t, roughly corresponding to the probability distribution of these flair classes over the ~40 million users who are given this choice.

Will the offer of a reward for flair classes make it more or less likely that people would coordinate better?
How large of a reward would it have to be in order for there to be any affect whatsoever (given how diverse reddit is...this could be huge)
How would the reward affect/skew the distribution?

Edit: Upon closer inspection: looks like it isn't quite so simple: F(t) is actually (60-t)(H(60-t)H(t)) where t is a natural number {0,1,2,...}.

User Journal

Journal: On DIsagreement

It seems to be begging the question to demand acceptance of the prerequisites of the requirement to agree not to disagree. These prerequisites form a model of what it means to be rational. I'm not sure if they are the best possible model, or even if they work. This includes the hypothesis that a system is only efficient if and only if it has a model of itself, and the semenatic, syntactic forms, and (trustable) media that are acceptable to each of us. So, in short - it is reasonable to expect come to agreement with rational agents except about rationality itself. There it isn't necessarily a question of whether you agree or not, but a matter of how rationality can even work. A matter of tweaking the model to allow greater truths to be perceived between multiple agents. So, the #1 way to get out of any disagreement is to look at this model, or the idea of a model in general.

User Journal

Journal: 24 years later

I entered this tunnel, starting preschool in what, 1986? And here I am, at the very end of this god forsaken tunnel. All hope is lost, and yet here I am, washed up on the damned shore.

At least I'm pretty sure this time. I haven't filled out all the paperwork, but the exam is over. I thought I did anywhere between reasonably good and fantastic on the final exam -- all I need is a 14% to finish my degree (I suspect I got somewhere between probably 85+/-5%, stddev 5% or so or so.) so... I'd say I'm safely done.

But those considerations aside, it has been a long travel to get here. Where the hell am I?

User Journal

Journal: Agree to disagree meme

Since no two people agree on everything (especially in political/religious matters, but not exclusively so) here's an open question for you -- what is ONE belief that you think I do not currently believe but should. I would also suggest posting this on YOUR /. journal /etc to see what responses you get.

DISCLAIMER: since I'm *asking* for these beliefs I can't really expect to be too hard on you for them. The purpose here isn't to press you on them (you have the rest of my life to convert me, if you so choose), merely to enumerate them. Although agreeing to disagree is unfriendly, in the confines of this thread it will be seen as acceptable, just to flush out some fresh ideas that I might not have considered.

User Journal

Journal: Poissonian Statistics & OKCupid

Statistics has never really been my strong suit, but one of the equations we used in our astronomy labs was one out of poisson statistics, that is

P(r,u) = (e^{-u})*(u^r)/r!

and P(F) = P(r,u) * Number_Of_Stars_Surveyed,

where F is the total number of stars

or, perhaps written differently,

(defun stars (T U S) (* T (* (/ (* (expt 2.71828183 (- U)) (expt U S)) (* 1.0 (! S))) 100.0)))


(defun ! (int) (if (eq 0 int) 1 (* int (! (- int 1)))))

This is what you should use if you have a system of magnitudes of stars that are ordered in a poisson distribution, to determine what probability you have, given 'r' discrete categories of stars(in our case, r=5) that are each in turn less likely according to the poisson distribution, what is the probability that your data set can be picked. That is to say, what is the likelyhood that your ratio U of 'number-of-stars in category N and above vs. the number of stars' came about purely by chance? At least if I'm understanding this correctly, which I'm not sure.

According to my calculation,

(stars 85.0 (/ 7.0 85.0) 5) should be .0002%
(stars 85.0 (/ 27.0 85.0) 5) .2%
(stars 85.0 (/ 38.0 85.0) 5) .8%
(stars 85.0 (/ 53.0 85.0) 5) 4%
(stars 85.0 (/ 85.0 85.0) 5) 26%

That last one makes my head hurt. Under what condition could we be more certain that some order of stars was likely? 26% isn't very likely. In our lab my results for the Pleiades cluster was .002%, it should have been 4e-6%, but still... you can't seem to do much better than 26%, which isn't very likely at all. Yet looking at the graph in the wikipedia makes this at least *look* right...

Seems like I'm missing something here...what is the likelyhood that there are 53 "2 or greater" star women given a sample size of 85 given a poisson distribution? What about 85 1 or greater? How am I messing this up?

5 stars 7
4 stars 11 (- 38 11) 27 4 or greater
3 stars 15 (- 53 15) 38 3 or greater
2 stars 20 (- 85 32) 53 2 or greater
1 stars 32
(+ 7 11 15 20 32) total 85

User Journal

Journal: DIY toothpaste no worky

2 parts baking soda, 1 part hydrogen peroxide.

I'm not sure if it cleaned my teeth at all, but it sure did cause me to almost immediately puke.

On the upside, if I ever need to puke I know just the thing to force me to...

It's funny.  Laugh.

Journal: Apparently, I'm ugly 3 3

Double blind survey of around 30 fairly well randomized women of various ages of various pictures of me led me to a score of about 2/10 on, I lost some of the numbers, so no mean/mode/etc unfortunately.

I always considered myself ugly, although with my recent loss of weight I figured I'd be approaching average by now...
guess not.

Although who knows how hot you have to be to not be ugly at pof standards.

But still, you can't argue with empirical data. Maybe the side burns have got to go(although there's always the risk that out of the 30 women who did rank me, one did rank me as hot, and she may have liked them and maybe, just maybe, she's the one I'd be happiest with anyway, and by cutting them off I'd be cutting my chances with her, etc etc).

Also, I like the sean kennedy idea, of embracing your ugliness, accenting it, and building it into something meaningful. Got a deformity, accentuate it. Got a scar? Make it more visible, etc etc. So it's not like this fact is going to bring me down or anything. I've been knowingly ugly for most of my life, I can live the rest of my life this way.

It'd be nice to be able to find someone to love, and be able to keep them easier though, if my charisma roll were a little higher...


Journal: The effective data channel capacity of the universe and S:N

Start with a 1d edge between two nodes. An abstract version of a cable between two network points. We know by Claude Shannon's results that Bitrate = Bandwidth*log10(1+S:N). Keep that one in mind.

But what if we started with a plane, instead of an edge? A wall, instead of a cable? Then we could split the plane indefinitely...oh but we can't do that! Planck distance starts becoming an issue. So ~1/1.6E-35 or 6.3E34 edges/m is the largest possible amount of cables per metre, and ~4E69 cables per square metre cross section area.

But just as information may be transmitted in waves through an approximately 1d medium, they can be sent through that cross sectional area; just each of the 4E69 cables carrying signal, that's all right? It'd be like a wave coming into a port; as long as you split the harbour into fine enough paratitions, you can transmit independently, and get data independently.

What if went a step further? And started transmitting information through volumes. Perhaps a point particle in the middle of a sphere transmitting information to or from the entire surface of that sphere. Or...backwards in time or something! Then we're talking 2.5E104/m3...but there's also planck time to consider, so the smallest resolution is pretty much defined at 2E43 Hz...and there can't really be any more than 1 bit per time in this context(a single bit is hard enough to imagine) we're up to 5E147 bits per cubic metre....but why would we stop there? Let's use the entire observable universe.. 8.8E26 being used this way; bingo, 4.4E174 bits per universe.

4.4E174 bits = 1 log ( 1 + S/N ) log24.4E174 = 1 + S:N log2 4.4 + log2 10E174 -1 = S:N 2.1+578+1 ~= 581 = S:N

Or if we account for time as another spacelike dimension...the age of the universe...4.4E174*4E17 ...or 1.8E192 bits per universe log2 1.8E192 = S:N + 1 ~192log2 10 + log2(1.8) -1 = S:N ~638 S:N for not only the universe, but using the entire history of the universe as some kind of space-time anteanae. Assuming this were all possible, of course.

So if your S:N is over 638dB for anything, either I screwed up or you did. How could you get that certain of anything? Actually, even if I screwed up, I'm probably not off by more than a few dB!

But what about

  • the curvature of the universe? Does this help direct information?
  • the unobservable universe? Are we, and everything we can detect down to the big bang skin at the edge of the observable universe merely a bubble in something unimaginably larger?
  • what about moral propositions?
  • what about the concept of S:N? If it isn't absolutely meaningful this analysis falls suspect immediately
  • math/logic?
  • certainty of your own existence? Maybe it's just information that must travel, must be communicated. This would solve math issues, too as reflexive statements and other axiomatic information might be self-provable, and hence would not be affected by S:N. Information about the material universe.

Other interesting things come from this too, you can measure how powerful a transmission medium is by how close it approximates this. my modem is what, -599dB from perfection? You can also measure how much information is stored within any given thing in terms of dB depending how large it is, too. I wonder if there's a way to put mass-energy into this somehow? Oh looks like there's a planck energy. But for how that'll fit in, I'll have to give some thought, and really, I should make sure what I have now is approximately correct first, anyway :)

Also, /., why don't you like my preformatted sections? Your treatment of <pre> makes baby dinojesus cry.

User Journal

Journal: cuil theory

A random chat with m2tm, for your enjoyment

(11:29:38 PM) tmg1: &lt-- required reading :D
(11:33:10 PM) m2tm: haha, holy shit
(11:36:23 PM) tmg1: check out the cuil levels 6 & 7 comments :D
(11:38:46 PM) m2tm: haha, I like this too:
(11:38:51 PM) m2tm: Hypothesis: As Cuils increase, so does the likelihood your are actually a character in a David Lynch film.
(11:44:42 PM) tmg1: Hahahaha
(11:44:53 PM) tmg1: your are
(11:44:59 PM) tmg1: heh
(11:45:22 PM) m2tm: OMIGOSH
(11:45:27 PM) m2tm: It all makes sense!
(11:46:11 PM) tmg1: Hypothesis: Cuils are relative. You and I can be at different cuil levels only in relation to one another, as conscious beings
(11:48:02 PM) tmg1: Or maybe that's only true with Real cuils
(11:48:04 PM) tmg1: grn
(11:50:19 PM) m2tm: Nope, you are mistaken in questioning your point.
(11:50:23 PM) m2tm: Everything is relative.
(11:50:25 PM) m2tm: EVERYTHING.

Also, I'd imagine a Bayesian could be defined as someone who wants to minimize their apparent cuil-level between other bayesians and themselves. There could also be an 'absolute' cuil level, a level of reality compared to some standard point (say, Douglas Hofstadter or kevin bacon). Unfortunately this only works in the earlier cuils though since at later cuils even this might be used as an abstraction away from reality(this sort of thing making cuil theory somewhat of a difficult thing to define terms in).

Unfortunately, the cuil theory website has a TOS that I can't agree to(certainly while considering deviations from reality), so I won't be able to participate on their wiki.

In the meanwhile, when did /. break HTML(code/pre is don't work) AND 'plain old text'(can't see &ltpre&gt?

User Journal

Journal: Open Systems Canada Limited RIP

Probably the only Linux and FLOSS based company local to Regina, Canada, Open Systems Canada ltd, has gone out of business. I never actually required their help (can't afford it as a poor student, and our needs are constantly being met without serious incident at work)--- but it's still harrowing that now there is no longer anywhere to turn in city, for those really big problems that you need paid tech support with. I guess the waters of the rising global economic crisis are finally reaching the point where it's noticeable here in lavishly wealthy tarsand country. We will miss ye.

Journal: Participatory Science

reddit is carrying a post right now wherein PLoS and Nature are inviting the world to help with their peer review process. Which gets me to thinking: what all out there is there for people who have spare time/etc to help out with Science?

I might expand/add to this list later.

Linux Business

Journal: Linux.RST.B 2 2

I tried to post this earlier but for various obvious reasons it didn't work. Two of my debian boxes got Linux.RST.b. I probably wasn't very vigilant, and one of those two systems has been up since before etch became stable, so there's been lots of chances for an attacker to get in, either via trojan or brute force password detection(both of which Linux.RST.b utilize), but still -- It's no longer enough to be merely running linux. You need to actively have a security apparatus, even on linux.

Unless you want your computer to not boot properly/run slower than molasses. I can't even say 'like a windows machine' because...quite frankly it's no longer true.

Yes, windows users, I admit it, I failed at keeping my supposedly secure system from viruses.

Hacking's just another word for nothing left to kludge.