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Comment: Re:People don't understand statistics (Score 4, Insightful) 215

by terrymr (#33307974) Attached to: How Statistics Can Foul the Meaning of DNA Evidence

DNA testing probabilities go something like this ....
we found say 5 markers that match the defendant and the sample. (I picked a small number to make the example shorter)
each of those has the following probabilities of occuring in a random person :

1) 1 in 1000
2) 1 in 10
3) 1 in 10000
4) 1 in 7
5) 1 in 100

so we multiply all those together and get a probability of mismatch of : 1 in 7,000,000,000

I even told a guy at the state crimelab that was stupid - not that he cared.

The Tao is like a glob pattern: used but never used up. It is like the extern void: filled with infinite possibilities.

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