Forgot your password?

Comment: Re:"Belief" is not part of the scientific method (Score 2) 207

by tbannist (#47979643) Attached to: Study Links Pacific Coastal Warming To Changing Winds

Funny, I always thought "experiment" was in there somewhere.

Apparently, you should be at your most scientific (and smug) when you don't do experiments.

Sigh. Experiments would be part of "observation", as in you conduct an experiment and observe the results.

If you weren't so busy being a cynical jackass, you might actually have time to learn things.

Comment: Re:Just in time for another record cold winter (Score 5, Informative) 200

I know I shouldn't feed the trolls, however, ...

Obviously, you don't understand how science works:

Record hot summer = Evidence of global warming

As part of a trend of record hot summers, for sure. Individually? Not unless the record heat is so extraordinary that it falls outside of what would be possible without global warming.

Record cold winter = Well, that's just weather, pay it no mind.

A record cold winter would be evidence against global warming if it was part of trend, or it was so cold that it fell out of what should be possible with global warming. Having said that, globally this past winter had the 3rd warmest december, the 4th warmest January and the 21st warmest February, none of which exactly qualify as "record cold" on the global scale.

Extreme weather events = Evidence of global warming

Again it's the trends in extreme weather events more than the individual events that matter with certain exceptions where the events themselves fall out of what would be possible without global warming.

Lack of extreme weather events = Well, that's just weather, pay it no mind.

Again, it the trends, not individual weather on any specific year that matters

Ice melting in Antarctica = Evidence of global warming

Record ice in arctic = Well, that's just weather, pay it no mind.

I think you might have your north and south mixed up. We're near the record low for Arctic ice extent, and at record highs in Antarctic ice extent. Both of which are expected as part of global warming.


It actually is, whether or not you resort to derision and mockery.


Hundreds of Thousands Turn Out For People's Climate March In New York City 200

Posted by samzenpus
from the cooling-things-off dept.
mdsolar writes with an update on the People's Climate March. More than 400,000 people turned out for the People's Climate March in New York City on Sunday, just days before many of the world's leaders are expected to debate environmental action at the United Nations climate summit. Early reports from event organizers are hailing the turnout as the largest climate march in history, far bigger than the Forward on Climate rally held in Washington, D.C., last year. High-profile environmentalists including Bill McKibben, Leonardo DiCaprio, Jane Goodall and Vandana Shiva marched alongside policymakers such as Sens. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.). U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and former Vice President Al Gore were also there, and more than 550 buses carried in people from around the country.

Comment: Re: Still pretty affordable (Score 1) 393

by tbannist (#47935879) Attached to: Is the Tesla Model 3 Actually Going To Cost $50,000?

Once all the hospitals and other facilities are government, you have no place to turn except for the government.

Interesting note: There are countries that provide universal health care where the government owns all the hospitals and clinics and there are countries where it doesn't. Universal health care doesn't require that the government own the health care infrastructure. The government only needs to take over the primary health care insurance market.

Another interesting note: Many of the countries with universal health care still have for-profit supplemental health care coverage for the things that are not covered by the universal system.

Comment: Re:FYI (Score 1) 635

by tbannist (#47922683) Attached to: Extent of Antarctic Sea Ice Reaches Record Levels

But 3 consecutive years of expansion would be....

Good news?

It's not happening, though. This year is really, really close to last year so it's more like a 2 year rebound from a new record low. If we're really lucky, 2012's minimum extent record will stand for a decade or longer. That would be good news for us, but I don't expect it to.

Comment: Re:Talking Point (Score 1) 427

by tbannist (#47870549) Attached to: UN Study Shows Record-High Increases For Atmospheric CO2 In 2013

When the climate change topic comes up, my brain automatically translates that the punitive corrective measures bandied about over the years...Carbon Tax, Environmental Regulation, and all the other proposed measures that wind up trading modest pollution levels for wideband economic austerity.

Why would you think that Carbon taxes or environmental regulation would actually trigger "wideband economic austerity"? We've been through similar measures at least twice before (CFCs and Acid Rain) and as non-intuitive as it may seem now, the interventions actually turned out to have a small positive effect on the economy. It turns out that when pollution is free, there is a certain inertia where companies often don't take steps that would actually be beneficial to their bottom line because the benefit is perceived to be small and potentially risky.

Furthermore, there are several countries (and areas withing individual countries) already have carbon taxes and regulation and they have not been driven out of business by their less-regulated competition. Norway, for example, has had a carbon tax for over 20 years.

Comment: Re:Scientific Consensus (Score 1) 770

by tbannist (#47852939) Attached to: How Scientific Consensus Has Gotten a Bad Reputation

Science is about provability, consensus is about getting majority or even a plurality of opinions.

I'm afraid not. Mathematics is about provabiity. Science is about predictability (or understanding). That's why science must be repeatable.

These two things are mutually exclusive.

Again, I'm afraid not. You inevitably need a consensus that something has been "proven". You need independent verification that your results are correct and if no one can reproduce your results, they won't be accepted and won't be considered "proven".

Piltdown Man was once "consensus". We know how that turned out.

As early as 1913, David Waterston of King's College London published in Nature his conclusion that the sample consisted of an ape mandible and human skull. Likewise, French paleontologist Marcellin Boule concluded the same thing in 1915. A third opinion from American zoologist Gerrit Smith Miller concluded Piltdown's jaw came from a fossil ape. In 1923, Franz Weidenreich examined the remains and correctly reported that they consisted of a modern human cranium and an orangutan jaw with filed-down teeth.

- Piltdown Man page on Wikipedia

I'm not too familiar with the case, but I'm doubtful that there was ever a consensus on his piltdown man, even among the people that didn't want to believe that Dawson was a con man, there was much disagreement over how the fake find should be interpreted.

Comment: Re:Straight to the pointless debate (Score 1) 136

by tbannist (#47824991) Attached to: Out of the Warehouse: Climate Researchers Rescue Long-Lost Satellite Images

If some dope seriously compromised the thermometer's accuracy, say buy putting it near a radiative surface, then accuracy is lost and you have to throw the data out. You can't average out the error and just subtract it from all the numbers. The data is useless - you cannot repair inaccurate data.

Where you're talking about measurements, there's a difference between accuracy and bias. An accurate instrument with a known bias can still be useful.

Comment: Re:Straight to the pointless debate (Score 1) 136

by tbannist (#47824933) Attached to: Out of the Warehouse: Climate Researchers Rescue Long-Lost Satellite Images

The ground station temperature data has been quite thoroughly manipulated, always "adjusted" in the direction of confirming the theories of the researcher making the adjustment, Pardon my skepticism about that data.

Strangely enough BEST (partially funded by the Koch brothers) actually found that was not true. They actually found some the adjustments were over-correcting for warm bias and actually reducing the actual warming trend by a small amount. Unsurprisingly, adjustments are made to correct both unusual up and unusual down spikes in the temperature records which are often caused by changes in staffing, location, and methodology at temperature stations.

The satellite data, however, has no such shadow over it. It's good, solid data - the sort of thing one expects in science.

I don't think you actually know what you're talking about.

... then I'll be annoyed that the data source I trust has been mixed with adjusted data.

Too late, the satellite data has to be adjusted to be usable in the first place and UAH, for example, has been through 10 rounds of adjustments to correct various errors.

Comment: Re: Her work (Score 1) 1262

Ok, so who are the patriarchy? I guarantee you wont have an answer or it will be so abstract that it can encompass everything like some conspiracy theory.

Your reply makes little sense. There is no "the patriarchy". That's like asking "who are the democracy"? Patriachy is a potential aspect of a society, as opposed to matriarchy and gender-neutrality.

I got another one for you. How can you tell if a character in a narrative is being sexually objectified? I guarantee you wont have that answer either.

Whether or not a character is being sexually objectified would likely be a subjective evaluation, though there are times where there is near unanimous agreement that it is happening.

If you are under the illusion that I'm some sort of gender crusader, you've been misled.

Comment: Re:unfair policy (Score 2) 302

by tbannist (#47803053) Attached to: Study: Antarctic Sea-Level Rising Faster Than Global Rate

97% of research papers on climate change that stated a position on whether AGW is real, took an affirmative stance. But this ignores the many papers that were non-committal, and stated no opinion.

Why, exactly, would you consider the papers that don't talk about a topic when considering whether there is a consensus of support for that topic or not? If you were seeking to see if a dog would make a good pet, how many books about orangutans would you read? Also, the Cook paper also clearly states what percentage of the papers took a position on climate change (32.6%) in the abstract.

According to your logic, we can lower the support level for any topic by simply including more papers that don't take a position on the topic. It doesn't even have to be climate change. Why not gravity, the round-earth hypothesis, or religion. Hey, if we include enough irrelevant papers we can get the consensus level down to 0.0001% for anything.

Comment: Re:unfair policy (Score 1) 302

by tbannist (#47802995) Attached to: Study: Antarctic Sea-Level Rising Faster Than Global Rate

The 97% comment is a lie [] and people who repeat it are not interested in the truth.

Following methodology of Legates (geographer), Soon (astrophysicist), Briggs (statistician), Monckton (public speaker), I can prove that gravity is a lie since only 0.01% of papers in the category of science specifically affirm that the force is real and affecting us. That's what they did to get only a 0.3% endorsement of the consensus view of climate change, they included papers that have nothing to do with global climate change to dilute the results. The Cook paper found that 97% of the papers that took a position favoured the consensus view.

Comment: Re:unfair policy (Score 1) 302

by tbannist (#47802919) Attached to: Study: Antarctic Sea-Level Rising Faster Than Global Rate

The NIPCC Reports go to great lengths explaining exactly what the IPCC report on the same topic skipped over or misinterpreted.

Because, as we all know, an ideologically Libertarian political "think tank" funded by gas and coal owners is clearly the most reliable source of information on the effects of pollution released by the gas and coal industries and whether that pollution requires government intervention. There is absolutely no bias, no politics and no conflict of interest there.

I use technology in order to hate it more properly. -- Nam June Paik