> I'm not sure they won't be moving down market
They'll never move to the lower end of the market, because its tight margins means no profit. They basically will abandon the low end to feature phones and android. Market efficiencies are going to keep driving down the costs of android/feature phones to the point that Apple can't make an obscene profit on outdated iPhones. At that point, Apple will only offer products in the high end market, at an obscene profit margin.
My point is that its not worth burning billions making a mapping service competitive to google. They don't "need" an Apple maps service to keep selling their phones. They don't build their own internet search service. They would be a lot brighter building a high quality Apple cloud service. That would service their phones, tablets, laptop and desktops, give them the ability to provide uniquely user-friendly services, and enable "lock-in". No one takes Apple maps seriously, and once their phones become niche, they will have pumped a ton of money to provide an inferior service. It doesn't make sense from a marketing standpoint.