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Comment: Re:Middle class will moderate China -- debunked id (Score 2) 166

by shutdown -p now (#47952579) Attached to: Why a Chinese Company Is the Biggest IPO Ever In the US

That was the Nixon/Kissinger theory of the 1960s/70s. It was used to cut China all sort of political and economic slack. It was proven wrong by the 1989 Tiananmen Square Massacre.

Was it, though? China circa 1960s/70s was a totalitarian dictatorship where Tiananmen square was an impossibility simply because any dissent would be crushed long before it would get to mass protest stage, and the yearly number of victims was far greater, too. Compared to China after Tiananmen, the latter is far more liberal. It's even more liberal today.

If you want a better China then the US should treat China as China treats the US. Have reciprocal economic and trade policies, punitive measures for egregious behavior, ... No more cutting them slack hoping they will moderate over time, no more treating them like they are an impoverished developing nation,

I did not suggest doing such a thing. The best thing you can do is just trade (and yes, this doesn't preclude e.g. tariffs to even out the price of labor differences, environmental concerns etc).

Comment: Re:Don't buy/invest in mainland China (if you can) (Score 1) 166

by shutdown -p now (#47952065) Attached to: Why a Chinese Company Is the Biggest IPO Ever In the US

As Chinese economy grows, so does its middle class. As its middle class grows, it demands more democratic reforms and more government responsibility - ultimately, a way to better China, for both its people and its neighbors.

So if you want a better China, you should do the exact opposite of what you're doing.

Comment: Re:Everyone loses (Score 1) 433

by shutdown -p now (#47949457) Attached to: Scotland Votes No To Independence

There's literally nothing I can do to prevent some moron raiding his mother's arsenal and killing my kid if that's how he wants to end his life.

If you read the news headlines less and statistical data more, you'd know that the chances of that happening are far, far lower than your kid being hit by a school bus, or drowning in your pool. You might as well worry about him dying in the next 9/11.

Comment: Re:Everyone loses (Score 1) 433

by shutdown -p now (#47949425) Attached to: Scotland Votes No To Independence

Elizabeth II is the Queen of Canada. That she also happens to be a Queen of some other realms is completely immaterial to her position as the monarch of Canada - her royal prerogatives in Canada are defined by the Canadian political system, not the British one, and her duties and responsibilities are also before the Canadian nation.

Comment: Re:Cuba could have lifted it ages ago (Score 1) 534

by shutdown -p now (#47887443) Attached to: Cuba Calculates Cost of 54yr US Embargo At $1.1 Trillion

You think the Castro dynasty would give up their communist ideals just because the US lifts the embargo?

Of course not. But you give the right answer immediately.

The truth is that the US has very little to do with Cuba's problems. All the embargo really does to Cuba is give its leaders someone to blame for everything that Cuba is not. A convenient scapegoat for the government.

Exactly. Embargo is a convenient scapegoat - it lets the government to explain away harsh life and crackdowns by an ongoing conflict, "us vs them", "everything for the victory". Remove it, and it makes that much harder for them to maintain that. Long term, it will accelerate the inevitable collapse of the dictatorship and the transition to something saner. If Castros are smart, they will do what Chinese and Vietnamese elites did, and head the transition rather than trying to resist it, so as to reap the maximum benefits. If not, there will be another revolution.

Either way, all that embargo does is delay that process. So it hurts the people of Cuba, not its government.

Comment: Re:RT.com? (Score 1) 534

by shutdown -p now (#47887383) Attached to: Cuba Calculates Cost of 54yr US Embargo At $1.1 Trillion

The embargo started before the Cuban missile crisis (in fact, many historians believe that it was the extreme hostility of US towards Cuba after the revolution that pushed the latter towards Soviets). In any case, the notion that if the embargo is lifted, Cuba would rebuild the missile bases, just defies any common sense. It was not their bases to begin with, and if someone else would want to rebuild them today, the embargo makes it easier not harder (because it takes that much less to pay to Cuba for them).

Comment: Re:Overall death toll under communism: 100 Million (Score 1) 534

by shutdown -p now (#47887373) Attached to: Cuba Calculates Cost of 54yr US Embargo At $1.1 Trillion

If you seriously consider the Black Book of Communism to be the "best estimates for communist regimes killing people", you're either deluded or retarded. Heck, even if you take the book at its face value, even then it counts "victims of communism" - and by this they mean anyone who has died due to e.g. starvation during a famine, regardless of whether said famine was artificially induced or not (and Soviet Russia had plenty natural ones in the aftermath of its Civil War). For the actual killing estimates, they tend to take the highest figures from the sources that are basically pure guesswork, like Solzhenitsyn's books.

Comment: Re:Cuba could have lifted it ages ago (Score 1) 534

by shutdown -p now (#47887367) Attached to: Cuba Calculates Cost of 54yr US Embargo At $1.1 Trillion

The embargo is by US on Cuba. If US truly wanted to lift it, it could just do that. The fact that it is not lifted because "Cuba does something" means that US doesn't really want to lift it, either.

Which is stupid, because Cuba is as communist as it is only because of that embargo. Hell, look at Vietnam: a country that US actually went to wage war in, with numerous civilian casualties, and now? They're rapidly catching up with China on that whole capitalism business, and you can actually talk to a Vietnamese guy on the Internet and ask him what he thinks (and tell him what you think).

Comment: Re:$1.1 Trillion over 54 years... (Score 1) 534

by shutdown -p now (#47887363) Attached to: Cuba Calculates Cost of 54yr US Embargo At $1.1 Trillion

More like 11th century, actually.

I mean, this is Europe we're talking about here. If two states had a common border, you can be pretty sure they had at least one war per century, and often more than that. In case of Russia(/Ukraine/Belarus) and Poland, the only reason why it doesn't go back earlier is because Rus was a proto-state before then, and it wasn't until the end of 10th century that it was fully formed.

"Love is an ideal thing, marriage a real thing; a confusion of the real with the ideal never goes unpunished." -- Goethe

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