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Comment: Re:warnings are out there (Score 1) 264

by phantomfive (#48266977) Attached to: Imagining the Future History of Climate Change

The science is clear even if we don't 100% understand all he dynamics,

If the science were clear, the models would be reasonable accurate. In reality they are off by a lot. There's still a lot of science that needs to be done (which isn't surprising, because you can't really do a randomized double-blind study to determine the effects of things on the earth. It's harder than that).

Comment: Re:This is America... (Score 1) 188

... and if there's nothing to be outraged about we'll manufacture it.

I'm really wondering if people will ever get tired of being manipulated all the time with outrage.

If you haven't noticed it yet, notice it now: the television, radio, politicians, bloggers all manipulate people by making them feel outrage. Then they get what they wanted from the manipulee and move on. Nothing changes, "but it sure feels good I was upset at those [people on the wrong side of the issue]."

Comment: Re:This does _not_ mean confident people are stupi (Score 1) 288

by phantomfive (#48262029) Attached to: We Are All Confident Idiots
And yet you answered anyway.

In any case, even by "statistical implication" you are wrong.....if "confident people are a mix of a small group that actually has a clue and a large group that is stupid" (those are your words) then indeed confident(p) => stupid(p) more often than not. Surely you understand that.

Furthermore, another way you are also wrong is that the D-K effect indeed does say that skilled people tend to be less confident. That's "statistical implication" for you.

Comment: Re:almost useless (Score 1) 214

by phantomfive (#48261673) Attached to: Windows 10 Gets a Package Manager For the Command Line

Have you ever tried to make your application a debian package

Yes, it's essentially a compressed directory, combined with a dependency list and a version number. You don't even need the specialized Debian tools to build them, although they make things easier. I'm kind of surprised you found it difficult, actually.

Comment: Re:I'm I smart? I guess I'll never know. (Score 1) 288

by phantomfive (#48255873) Attached to: We Are All Confident Idiots

That said I typically stand back aghast at today’s Republican conservatives – I may be wrong, but in general they seem mean and – yes I’ll say it – bigoted. Of course that could just be Dunning-Kruger blinding me to the brilliance of the current Republican vision.

The question you should ask is whether you think the Democratic vision is amazing. Finding problems with one party is hardly original.

After an instrument has been assembled, extra components will be found on the bench.