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Comment: Re:Great Recession part II? (Score 1) 404

If Greece goes Italy will be viewed next (bad side).

Maybe. Italy knows how to play EU politics much better than Greece does. Furthermore their situation is much better than Greece.

But that line could change.

The point is that the ECB will signal to investors before it changes, so they have time to get out. If that changes, and Italy defaults suddenly, then yes, that will cause panic.

Comment: Re:Soverign debt (Score 1) 404

Yes, but by the 2000 the economy had grown so much that it would have been insignificant (and still is, compared to the debt piled on during the Bush/Obama years). That was my point. Another way of looking at it:

The Reagan debts were small compared to the Bush debts.
The Bush debts were small compared to the Obama debts.

I'm not trying to blame here, I don't care whose fault it is, I only care who has a solution.

Comment: Re:Great Recession part II? (Score 2) 404

Don't underestimate the mental impact it will have. When Greece crashes then investors will look into other investments and see how viable they are and get scared

No. If you'd been paying attention (which I assume you would if you were an investor in European sovereign bonds), you can see that the EU drew a clear line between countries it would save, and countries it wouldn't. Ireland and Portugal got on the good side, Greece got on the bad side.

Investors know where the line is, and that if (for example) Portugal gets in a similar situation, they will have a chance to pull their money out. Just like they did with Greece.

Comment: Re:Soverign debt (Score 1) 404

That's what the economists on this very blog say, when discussing US debt. It doesn't matter how far into debt the US is, anyone can see this by comparing our debt to our GDP: the latter number is really big, while the debt is really small.

Sovereign debt is only different (unless you can inflate it away) when it is used as an investment to make the economy grow.

In 2009, Democrats followed this theory with stimulus spending, to help the economy recover.

In the 80s, Reagan used it to cut taxes. Whether that worked or not, the economy did grow, and the national debt shrank in comparison.

So, according to economists, debt to fund growth is different than debt to fund consumption. That is the primary difference (apart from inflation, which isn't entirely an option for the US with TIPS).

Comment: Re:Great Recession part II? (Score 4, Insightful) 404

I am nervous as this feels like early 2008 all over again.

It's not. That was the end of 2011, when Greece nearly defaulted and got a bailout. Too many banks in Europe had Greek bonds, and they were worried about that contagion.

Since that time, all the other banks have divested themselves of Greek bonds (and have been recapitalized by the ECB). There is no worry of contagion this time, because no one expected Greece to repay anything, and they prepared appropriately. The European governments are laughing as Greece falls over the edge.

So what will Greece do? The first thing Greece will do is refuse to make interest payments (not on everything at first.....EFSF loans don't need to start being paid back until 2023, for example). That will give them a bit more money, but the major problem is not having enough money to pay their bills. Mandatory furloughs of government workers, riots, etc. Will they leave the Euro? Who knows, but that won't help the fundamental problem that the government spends more than it takes in (and now it can't borrow anymore).

If you want to watch for a time to worry, the time will be when Germany, or France, or the United States can no longer borrow. Then there will be another 2008.

Comment: Re:Funny, that spin... (Score 2) 306

by phantomfive (#49765405) Attached to: What AI Experts Think About the Existential Risk of AI

Let alone your idiotic post, and those idiotic "comics" drawn for an audience of mentally diseased imbeciles.

Let me say it more explicitly for you. Chances are you've never looked at Bill Gates' code. You don't know how good it is. You haven't seen any of his work in AI. You don't understand the work Stephen Hawking did in physics, and Elon Musk? Really? Why do you even think his opinion on AI is worth anything? The only reason you trust them is because they are famous, because they are celebrities.

You are trusting them because they are famous, not because of their skill. You don't even know what their skill is related to AI. So you are no better than the person who listens to the Kardashians because they are famous.

Change now and you will be a better person.

"I think trash is the most important manifestation of culture we have in my lifetime." - Johnny Legend

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