This is essentially correct:
If they take away net metering they should give wholesale peak prices. This can be more than $10 per KWh.http://eex.gov.au/energy-management/energy-procurement/energy-pricing/the-wholesale-price-of-energy/
If they don't give this wholesale price to homeowners, then the dropping price of PV will mean that large companies will set up large installations, selling into the wholesale spot market at peak prices. Same effect: drop in profits for electricity generators, and an increase in the price of stanby power at night or on cloudy days.