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Comment Re:wft ever dude! (Score 1) 146 146

I found that above about 10Mb/s you start to hit diminishing returns. The jump from 10 to 30 was barely noticeable. The jump from 30 to 100 is noticeable with large downloads, but nothing else. From 100 to 1000, the main thing that you notice is if you accidentally download a large file to a spinning-rust disk and see how quickly your fill up your RAM with buffer cache...

Over the last 10 years, I've gone from buying the fastest connection my ISP offered to buying the slowest. The jump from 512Kb/s to 1Mb/s was really amazing (though not as good as moving to 512Kb/s from a modem that rarely managed even 33Kb/s), but each subsequent upgrade has been less exciting.

Comment Re:wft ever dude! (Score 1) 146 146

Because in 1981 or so, everybody was pretty sure that this fairly obscure educational network would *never* need more than about 4 billion addresses... and they were *obviously right*.

Well, maybe. Back then home computers were already a growth area and so it was obvious that one computer per household would eventually become the norm. If you wanted to put these all on IPv4, then it would be cramped. The growth in mobile devices and multi-computer households might have been a bit surprising to someone in 1981, but you'd have wanted to add some headroom.

When 2% of your address space is consumed, you are just over 6 doublings away consumption. Even if you assume an entire decade per doubling, that's less than an average lifetime before you're doing it all over again.

With IPv6, you can have 4 billion networks for every IPv4 address. Doublings are much easier to think about in base 2: one bit per doubling. We've used all of the IPv4 addresses. Many of those are for NAT'd networks, so let's assume that they all are and that we're going to want one IPv6 subnet for each IPv4 address currently assigned during the transition. That's 32 bits gone. Assuming that we're using a /48 for every subnet, then that gives us 16 more doublings (160 years by your calculations). If we're using /64s, then that's 32 doublings (320 years). I hope that's within my lifetime, but I suspect that it won't be.

In practice, I suspect that the growth will be a bit different. Most of the current growth is multiple devices per household, which doesn't affect the number of subnets: that /64 will happily keep a house happy with a nice sparse network, even if every single physical object that you own gets a microcontroller and participates in IoT things using a globally routable address.

IMHO: what needs to happen next is to have a 16 bit packet header to indicate the size of the address in use. This makes the address space not only dynamic, but MASSIVE without requiring all hardware on the face of the Earth to be updated any time the address space runs out.

This isn't really a workable idea. Routing tables need to be fast, which means that the hardware needs to be simple. For IPv4, you basically have a fast RAM block with 2^24 entries and switch on the first three bytes to determine where to send the packet. With IPv6, subnets are intended to be arranged hierarchically, so you end up with a simpler decision. With variable-length fields, you'd need something complex to parse them and that would send you into the software slow path. This is a problem, because you'd then have a very simple DoS attack on backbone routers (just send them packets with large length headers that chew up CPU before they're dropped). You'd also have the same deployment headaches that IPv6 has: no one would buy routers that had fast paths for very large addresses now, just because in 100 years we might need them, so no one would test that path at a large scale: you'd avoid the DoS by just dropping all packets that used an address size other than 4 or 16. In 100 years (i.e. well over 50 backbone router upgrades), people might start caring and buy routers that could handle 16 or 32 byte address fields, but that upgrade path is already possible: the field that you're looking for is called the version field in the IP header.

Comment Re:Wait Wait Wait... (Score 1) 146 146

It depends on the ISP. Some managed to get a lot more assigned to them than they're actually using, some were requesting the assignments as they needed them. If your ISP has a lot of spare ones, then they might start advertising non-NAT'd service as a selling point. If they've just been handing out all of the ones that they had, then you might find that they go down to one per customer unless you pay more.

Comment The question is "why"? (Score 1) 296 296

"I really want to upgrade to Windows 10"

Why do you really want to upgrade to Windows 10? Can Win10 do anything useful, that other Windows OS's can't do? Can any Windows OS's do anything useful that other OS's cannot?

It's good that you reject the invasive nature of Win10 - but apparently you accept everything else that Win10 represents. The exorbitant fees for using the operating system(s). The Microsoft tax. The monoculture that has led to almost ubiquitous exploits. The Microsoft lobby/extortion taking place in the world's capitals.

When people begin migrating away from Microsoft en masse, the world will become a somewhat better place.

Bill Gates is a damned smart man. He effectively promoted the piracy of his OS's in past decades, because he KNEW that once hooked on Windows, few would make the effort to learn another way of doing things. Today's marketing scheme for Win10 meshes well with Bill's attitude toward pirates.

Comment Re: Sure you can. (Score 1) 296 296

It costs money to get "word to the masses", a lot of money

Word is out there, if we are discussing the Linux kernel - all those Android devices for a start...

However, my guess is that we are discussing a (generic) Linux Distribution - the kernel, the libraries, the applications, the user interface, the package management system, etc.

For a utility machine - web browsing, email, the occasional document or spreadsheet - several Linux Distributions work great.. but there is no commercial push to them.

Comment Re: Sure you can. (Score 1) 296 296

The few places I've put linux for a "average user" I used Mint, setup Chrome for the browser and Thunderbird for pop3 mail, set a cron job to download and install updates, and have pretty much forgotten about them. They call me when they need a new scanner or printer installed. It Just Works for them as well as Windows does.

Comment Re:RTFA? (Score 1) 296 296

Of the tens of thousands of new machines being bought between now and school starting in late august/early september, what percentage do you think will come with Win 10? Of those, what percentage will run with Win 10 Enterprise? Hooked up to a domain with an admin that has set that policy in GP?

Comment Re:Casino Noise (Score 1) 116 116

capitalism in which the cost of protecting property rights is paid for by taxing economic activity rather than the property rights themselves.

How do you tax property rights?

Have you ever owned property? It is quite simple and called property tax.

I wondered if that's what he was proposing, that all defense of property be funded by property taxes. Property tax isn't really a tax on property rights, though. And in any case property tax does end up being a tax on economic activity also, or at least on economic value, which is determined by economic activity. So I don't see the point.

Comment Re:This won't end well.... (Score 1) 169 169

When you say "Production Environment" that sounds to me like running services with it.

I don't think anyone with half a brain would consider using a desktop OS for a server doing Real Things. A basic dev setup for doing web dev type stuff like LAMP or MEAN while you are traveling, etc - sure no problem. But to put it "out there" and make it available? Hah.

The folks who *should* be getting with it now are the "websmiths" or whatever you want to call those folks that are good at design, layout, using JQuery, etc. so they can start "fixing" their web pages for the new browser Win10 comes with. I know where I work (a college) that will be a big thing for our creative folk, and I know I'm going to need a VM with it (for student support calls related to our LMS) for the new browser as well.

The folks who *will* be getting with it are all those people getting new machines as the new school year starts in a month.

Comment Re: Winter? (Score 1) 215 215

Do a search for google car can't drive in rain and you will see that they haven't even been tested in heavy rain because of safety concerns.

That just means they haven't gotten to that yet, not that they expect it to be very hard.

If it wasn't an issue they would already be doing it. Of course it is nowhere near the first of the issues autonomous cars have, they are quite far from what people imagine.

The guys I know working on the Google cars disagree. Oh, they have plenty to do, but it's mostly because they've set an extraordinarily high bar for themselves.

Comment Re:List of privacy violations (Score 1) 169 169

From what I could see, the features that actually invade privacy are optional. The collage was highly misleading, including such things as "Windows Update being mandatory" and "Malware protection only being able to turn off temporarily" as "privacy violations" when they're actually both just things that suck.

Steve Jobs said two years ago that X is brain-damaged and it will be gone in two years. He was half right. -- Dennis Ritchie