Mind you, at the time, a number of these states had restrictive gun ownership laws that were fairly similar to those of Nazi Germany. So in many cases, there was no real difference with regard to the capability (or lack thereof) for Jewish self-defence. That having been said, in this whole context it is vitally important to remember that the Nazis managed to keep the true nature of the Holocaust a secret from the majority of the population, including Jews that were still at large, or living in ghettoes and such, during the entire duration of the Third Reich. Sure, anti-semitism was widespread, and far too few people objected to "the Jews" being taken away for "deportation", or to "labor camps". These were the reasons that were publicly given for removing Jewish people from their places of residence: and to their shame, hardly anyone in the non-Jewish population batted an eyelid to this happening (as if "just" deporting an entire part of the population was a tolerable thing to happen!).
However, had they actually known that the place "the Jews" were headed to was not just "labor camps", but actual death camps - well, there is no way to say what would have happened, had people actually known this. IMHO, at least Jewish self-defence would likely have been much more pronounced: if you know that you are going to die anyway (as opposed to being sent to some labor camp, which sounds at least theoretically survivable), you become much more motivated to make any sort of attempt to fight back.
There was actually a precedent why the Nazis decided to keep the Holocaust such a state secret, even with Anti-Semitism being rampant in the population: and that was the outcome of Aktion T4. Basically, there was such a public outcry over their earlier programme to straight out kill mentally handicapped people for "reasons of public health", that the programme had to be halted. To put this into full perspective, you have to realise that this push-back against Nazi policy took place while Nazi Germany was already a fully developed police state that was at war. And still public opinion was so much against T4 happening, that the party leadership caved in. No wonder that they chose to do their dirty work in total secrecy from then on.
You do realise that the main reason for the Warsaw Uprising to fail was the swinish behaviour of the Soviets in the whole matter? The Polish Underground Army started the uprising to co-incide with the Red Army reaching Warsaw in time to join in on the whole thing, which would have made the outcome of the fight a foregone conclusion. What they had not counted on was that the Polish underground fighters were, by and large, not communists - and were therefore expendable to Stalin, and were rather seen as a problem by themselves. So the Soviets patiently stopped on the outskirts of Warsaw while the uprising went on, waited until the Germans had finished off the Poles, and only then took Warsaw.
So the failure of the uprising is hardly a valid data point to argue against armed insurrections in general. You just have to time them right, and pick the right sort of allies for them to succeed.