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Tinfoil hats on everyone! Having read reasonably widely on the turn of events with the mediteranean / persian gulf internet/optical fibre cable disruptions, I think a few points have to be made to clarify things:

Firstly, it is reasonable to say this is not a coincidental event. I would think otherwise if there were several breakages over months, each having a reasonable explanation given at the time and without this bizarre lack of coverage on many mainstream news services. In the current situation of near-war with Iran, everything is different.

Secondly, it is becoming clear why it happened because of the events which have followed. Namely, the Iranian non-US dollar oil trading market was due to open in two days' time, but is now delayed due to communications problems. The economic fallout of non US dollar oil trade for the ailing US economy is going to be very obvious and painful for average Americans, not to mention pulling the rug somewhat from any future war funding.

Thirdly, just as Al-Quaeda (or whatever it is) has no jet pilots who are suitably trained to crash so beautifully (in a sick kind of way) into buildings, it has no submarines capable of doing such cable sabotage.

So if it is sabotage, it was done by first world, first class organization with capabilities of sending a specially made submarine to far flung parts of the sea without detection by any other nation (as far as we know).

Also, a note on the economic crisis in the US. As I suspected, the ones who are destined to suffer most are lower-middle class Americans. The US army is short of personnel. Laws are going to change with respect to defaulting on housing loans (no more getting off the hook), I predict, with bankruptcy in the US becoming an offence bordering on criminality, such that as a kind of 'plea-bargain', the accused can elect to join the army for a given duration to work off the debt. Or something like that. Either way I suspect the economic disaster which (slaps forehead) was such a surprise to bankers and government (yeah right! everyone saw it coming!), was actually no mistake and has been engineered to fill the US armed forces with willing recruits, since nobody in their right mind is wanting to join them under current circumstances.

The only problem with the above theory is it all seems to fit so well together that I can't really believe it.

Head of the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre (Canberra), Professor Hugh White writes a grim report on the coalition's performance in Afghanistan and Iraq. What is amusing, in a black sort of way, is that it is widely implied that the US lacked meaningful intelligence on the scope of the undertaking of invading Afghanistan and Iraq. "Oh, it was a bit more difficult than we expected" is what one can read between the lines. But it has been reported that war simulations of an Iraq invasion, for example, showed a swift and rapid initial victory in toppling the regime and entering the country, but a no-win-no-retreat situation to follow. And that is what we have.

As has been made clear on Slashdot and other public-postables/blogs, the US intelligence machine is not incompetent. It has achieved a high standard, and it is foolish to assume that the US made a 'mistake' in its approach to the Middle East. The reality is the US decision makers had no choice. They themselves, under whatever driving force (could it be blackmail?), determined that the US must get itself into Iraq and Afghanistan.

A withdrawal from Afghanistan may well be in the pipeline, but it will never be a complete withdrawal.

A withdrawal from Iraq will only occur in the form of an ignominous and desparate retreat from a rapidly advancing enemy such as Russia.

So, is a war with Iran likely? I think there is no other way "forwards" for the US except to go deeper into its doodoo. Because there are insufficient human resources to pull off such a stunt by conventional means, it will without a doubt be a nuclear war. But will this save the US dollar? Well, the recent Liberty Dollar bust suggests that the Dollar is goin' Down and the government can see that alternative (non fiat-based) currencies have very strong legs.

Sadly, as much as we laughed at conspiracy theorists, it appears that they might have been onto something. A regime is on its way to replace the US as top dog, but it is unlikely to be friendly and fluffy and democratic.

Today's heroes are not sportsmen, military leaders, politicians or churchmen. Modern day heroes are the whistleblowers. They are what gives humanity hope in the face of the current crisis. A transcript of Daniel Ellsberg's recent talk was published today. Mr Ellsberg was a whistleblower from the Vietnam War days.

I wanted to just quote some of his words for posterity:

As a predictor of future markets for IT products and jobs, we can look at who is going to have the money to support such endeavours. An article in the Washington Post suggests that countries like Russia and UAE are accumulating wealth reaching astronomical proportions compared to recent decades, whereas countries such as China might actually find their growth eclipsed by rising energy costs:

These factors make it all the harder for the US and Israel to sell their middle eastern conquest as a 'good idea' to countries that could easily stop them in their tracks.

Interestingly, The US Government is stockpiling oil again, which may hint that supplies will be short in the US soon. It may be a sign of major changes taking place in the Persian Gulf, such as an attack on Iran which could result in retaliatory cuts to oil supply lines to the US.

Does this mean anything when it comes to IT jobs in the USA? I found answers to this exact question difficult to find, but many predict, quite reasonably, that Linux based systems will march relentlessly forwards as affordability becomes more and more of an issue for IT consumers. Also, the multilingual nature and flexible configurability of Linux makes it the ideal choice for the newly rich nations, many of which feel no warmth towards the United States. Development of Linux is funded indirectly by IT corporations, but because its development is diffuse, honouring no borders, the US cannot claim control over its destiny, compared with Apple and Microsoft products which are under the thumb of the US Administration.

What I suspect will happen is that It corporations producing consumer goods will be experiencing poorer growth in sales of major product releases as customers in what currently is the First World take a more "good-enough-for-me" approach to luxury items such as portable devices like iPhones and laptops. The arrival of new markets in foreign countries may spur the growth of IT sectors in those countries which are independent of Wall Street owned companies. To tap into those markets, IT companies are going to need to produce products more suited to non-western cultures. As such, I can see more and more IT development moving offshore for this reason.

The USA has not invested enough in its education to produce a populace that has the historical and geographic knowledge to adapt to changes ahead - namely the end of the USA as the world's greatest economic and military superpower.