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Comment: Re:Business as usual (Score 2) 233

by jcurran (#38537438) Attached to: No IPv6 Doomsday In 2012

For the last 10 years I have read: "Yes, IPv4 addresses are running out.. blaa FUD blaa blaa FUD" So far nothing has happened. Most computers out there are NAT'ed so, please stop spreading FUD.

And indeed, they have been running out for the past ten years - look at slide 5 from this presentation: https://www.arin.net/knowledge/v4_deplete_v6_adopt.pdf The fact is that ISPs and hosting companies are having to now undergo major changes in order to continue to grow. The fact that we've known this was coming and developed IPv6, gotten into every major OS and the gear of every major network equipment manufacturer is simply good preparation for what's to come.

Comment: APNIC has entered next stage of runout (Score 1) 233

by jcurran (#38530968) Attached to: No IPv6 Doomsday In 2012
In this stage, APNIC has a fixed block of address space reserved and available under a special policy for new and emerging service providers, but that doesn't help one much if you're a existing telecomm company who had been getting tens of thousands of addresses every few months in order to grow - you can now longer obtain additional blocks and now must scramble to come up with an alternative (such as IPv6) if you want to keep growing. More info - http://www.apnic.net/community/ipv4-exhaustion/exhaustion-and-network-operators

Comment: ISPs & hosting companies will not run out of I (Score 1) 233

by jcurran (#38530756) Attached to: No IPv6 Doomsday In 2012
There is a finite number of IPv4 address (2**32, aka approx 4.3 billion)... There are 7 billion people on the planet today, and most want an always on smartphone, and a home computer, and a computer at work, etc. This doesn't consider the demand for office servers, data centers, cloud services, etc. The reality is that the depletion of the free pool doesn't mean we run out, but it does start us on the path of higher and higher utilization of these 4.3B numbers. At some point, it becomes very difficult to get additional addresses because all of the relatively easily recovered address space has been redeployed. For an ISP, this won't be 2012, but there's no assurance that its not going to happen very quickly in the next few years.

Comment: Re:Source of information (Score 1) 233

by jcurran (#38530552) Attached to: No IPv6 Doomsday In 2012

I don't know what your source of information is, but i recall a previous announcement that no more IPv4 address were being provided, and that only IPv6 were being given out.

If that is true, then we are already out of the IPv4 addresses. and the big IPv6 potential doomsday has already come and gone.

It's worth reading the original article referenced in the post... The central free pool of IPv4 address space ran out on 3 February 2011. The Asia Pacific region (under the APNIC registry) ran out of address space for issuance per their standard policies at the start of summer. RIPE (serving Europe) is likely to run out in this spring, and ARIN is likely to run out in early 2013. Telecommunication companies and ISPs rely on getting additional address space from their regional registry, and if they can't get any more IPv4 space, they either need to stop adding new customers, scavenge IPv4 space from elsewhere, or use IPv6 for new customers.

Comment: Ability to transfer address space (Score 1) 233

by jcurran (#38530202) Attached to: No IPv6 Doomsday In 2012
Correct.  If you received IPv4 address space directly from one of the Internet number registries (whether that was IANA, or the InterNIC, or a regional Internet registry), the address space is assigned to you and can be transferred to another party according to the policies of the registry serving your region.  If you received address space from your ISP, it's quite likely that the ISP is only providing it to you as a component of service and will recover them if you leave or change providers.

Comment: Re:So what did they conclude from IPv6 day? (Score 1) 243

by jcurran (#36386722) Attached to: World IPv6 Day: Most-watched Tech Event Since Y2K
( Here's an example of lessons learned - this message from Facebook Engineering http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=10150198443513920 )

World IPv6 Day came to an end earlier today. We successfully enabled IPv6 on our site for 24 hours, with great results. We saw over 1 million users reach us over IPv6.

We’re pleased that we did not see any increase in the number of users seeking help from our Help Center. The estimated 0.03% of users who may have been affected would have experienced slow page loads during the test.

Based on the encouraging results, we’ve decided to leave our Developer site dual-stacked, supporting both IPv4 and IPv6. And we will continue to adapt our entire code base and tools to support IPv6.

We are glad to have joined with the Internet Society, major Web companies, and other industry players to enable IPv6 for this test day. It was a great opportunity to test our infrastructure and IPv6 readiness.

IPv6 is vital to the continued growth of the Internet, and World IPv6 Day was a great step in the advancement of the protocol.  We hope the overall success of the 24 hour test will encourage others in the industry to establish reliable IPv6 connectivity and develop robust IPv6 products.

Comment: 4.3B IP's should be enough... (Score 1) 243

by jcurran (#36374586) Attached to: World IPv6 Day: Most-watched Tech Event Since Y2K
7 Billion people on the planet... While many today do not have Internet connectivity, that's changing rapidly where some regions are skipping the copper deployment for end users and going directly to deployment of wireless infrastructure. In more established economies, it is not uncommon to have 1 IP address in use at home for broadband, one in the office, one on your mobile device, etc. 4 or 5 IP's per person, 7 Billion people = 40 or 50 Bill IP addresses would be helpful, and this doesn't even count servers in data centers, virtual machines, clouds, etc. 4.3 billion is looking very tight even with just today's applications.

Comment: Re:Won't corporate transition to IPV6 free up IPV4 (Score 1) 425

by jcurran (#33313336) Attached to: Why You Shouldn't Worry About IPv6 Just Yet

I saw a presentation given by the president of ARIN recently on the Research Channel. He predicted that IPV6 and IPV4 will run in parallel for about a decade, so I don't see corporations giving up their IPV4 address space anytime soon.

The fact that I said it doesn't make it true, but I definitely believe that there will be many organizations running IPv4 internally for years to come, and it's only when its commonplace to use IPv6 will organizations think about turning off IPv4. Your mileage may vary.
/John
President and CEO, ARIN

Comment: Re:Needs Leadership... (Score 1) 425

by jcurran (#33313294) Attached to: Why You Shouldn't Worry About IPv6 Just Yet

We first need to get BGP on board - only a small percentage of ASNs are announcing both ipv4 and ipv6 space. If i was supreme dictator of the internet I would tell ARIN that in 7 years, no multihomed ASN renewals would be accepted unless the ASN announces at least one prefix in IPv6. By doing this you would force the core network infrastructure to begin migrating and userland would eventually follow...

Steveb - No supreme dictator, but there is an ARIN policy process and *anyone* in the community can submit proposals... https://www.arin.net/policy/pdp.html

Comment: Re:Network armageddon (Score 1) 425

by jcurran (#33313254) Attached to: Why You Shouldn't Worry About IPv6 Just Yet

"Many network experts argue we're nearing network armageddon, but they've been saying that for years." Say what? "Network armageddon" is already here and we've been living in it for years. The horrors of NAT, the crampedness of addresses making configuration a pain, public addresses expensive, and so on. It's just not been a sudden catastrophe, it's been more like boiling a live frog by putting it in cold water and then slowly heating it.

Slight difference... ISPs can still get (today) fresh blocks of IPv4 addresses. That *will* end in about one year, and then you'll see layers of NAT as you've never seen them before...

% APL is a natural extension of assembler language programming; ...and is best for educational purposes. -- A. Perlis

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