That's just not the way it works unfortunately. People take fashion advice from looking at some star on tv, not from market analysis. The behavior of people at the top definitively matter. So flying your jet around and buying "eco-credit" while preaching abstinence for the common folk will always translate in people mind that this is all bullshit.
The last time there was a crisis, with the ozone layer, a few years later you could not find a can of anything containing that attacked it. For regular Joe, that means 2 things: 1. people in power are not really convinced that there is something wrong, 2. the day they decide there is something wrong the peasant will all need to go f* themselves because it will be legally impossible not to be fully-200% green, and that means live the lifestyle you want while it lasts.
That said, I agree with your 3rd point. I'm not hoping much from the carbon credit though - it has been at least a decade of green consciousness (here in Europe), and green still mean premium for almost everything and for the rest a 5+ investment (if government financial help are not canned like they did this year for solar panels in my country)