The new paper adds an additional approach to handling the problem: simply run a bunch of models and pick those that, by accident, accurately reproduced the ocean's chaotic behavior. The authors started with the CMIP5 collection of climate models and selected the 18 models that include an ocean simulation that's sophisticated enough to provide data on the state of ENSO and other ocean behavior. They started these 18 models in 1880 and used historical forcings (solar activity, greenhouse gas concentrations, etc.) up until 2005, then switched to a standard emission scenario until stopping the models in 2012.
This by no means settles the debate, but it sure changes the way we look at climate change."
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