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Comment: Re:280ppm to 400ppm and... (Score 1) 490

I see that rather than choosing to answer straight, you misquoted my remarks to frame them into an argument that you would rather answer. Should this impress me? Convince me that, in the last hour, you can pull some falsification of AGW out of your rear?

It's pretty clear to me that you are no longer up to this. The desperate spray of ridiculous clowns performing tricks to the tune of laughable fallacy? The reframing of my replies to make me the subject?

The NOAA 2008 Model debacle must be a blow for you, huh? I tried to warn you. Don't believe me? Look back over the last 7 posts or so. You just got into a blind rage or panic and start spraying fallacies left and right. I'll admit that you invoked pity.

Next time, check your facts. Heck: bring some facts.

Comment: Re:280ppm to 400ppm and... (Score 1) 490

This is the imaginary model that you and Watts made up, right?

You maybe read his website and thought it said "model" when it said something else, and then ran you mouth off for a week and a half without ever checking again and having never clicked on the link he so helpfully provided for those don't mind loading up the PDF and pressing Ctrl-F. http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/bams-sotc/climate-assessment-2008-lo-rez.pdf

He (watts) is a moron, a douche and a drooling mouth breather for making that fraudulent claim about the NOAA 15 year climate assessment from 2008. And so is Pielke

You're a moron for believing him and for not checking your facts - and you have the reading comprehension of a 5 year old, and not realising that I told you the model was imaginary about 5 posts ago.

Comment: Similar observation with ants (Score 3, Interesting) 270

by catchblue22 (#43809769) Attached to: Cockroaches Evolving To Avoid Roach Motels

I have noticed over the past few years that ants in my area have "learned" to avoid consuming Raid borax laced syrup. I remember early on in my house that ants would feast on the stuff, sucking large drops dry in a matter of minutes. Now, the new ants crawl up to the syrup I have left, seem to probe it, and then run away quickly. Even if I applied the syrup to an established ant pathway, they go around the drops without consuming any of it. I don't know whether they are averse to eating the sugar, or whether they can somehow sense the borax in the syrup. There seems to be some evolution going on here.

Comment: Re:280ppm to 400ppm and... (Score 1) 490

by KeensMustard (#43808689) Attached to: CO2 Levels Reach 400ppm at Mauna Loa For First Time On Record
Fascinating

And yet, despite your claims of a vast, time travelling conspiracy of climatologists, you are not able to actually provide any empircal evidence of this conspiracy and instead resort to quoting verbatim from other denialists. Do you think clucking from the hen house of denialism is taken as challenge by the scientific community? Do you think that the same claim repeated by someone else makes it seem more forceful? That is just sad.,

Comment: Re:280ppm to 400ppm and... (Score 1) 490

by KeensMustard (#43807881) Attached to: CO2 Levels Reach 400ppm at Mauna Loa For First Time On Record

You don’t get to define your own criteria. These are set for you by the scientific method, which in this case, specifies that the burden of proof for your assertion “AGW is not falsifiable” lies clearly with you. Which brings us back to the provision of this proof by you:

1. Provide verifiable proof of your assertion that the underlying science of AGW is not falsifiable – show working.

So [scientists] not only want to ask the question, but [they] want to tell me how to answer it too? :)

Yep. Suck it up dude.

You could provide verifiable proof of your assertion that the underlying science of AGW is not falsifiable - showing working.

Again, you're failing to understand that the burden of proof lies with the [asserter] - you're asking me to prove that there are [] fairies in [my] garden, further insisting that so long as I cannot prove that [], [we] must assume [my] assertion [of fairies in the garden] is [false].

Yep.

Do you really need a lesson on the fallacy of proving a negative?

Apparently not. You need a lesson on how to read, apparently.

Here, learn about Russell's teapot: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russell's_teapot

Russell's teapot applies perfectly in this case – Russell surmises that in the case of the unobservable item (the teapot) the burden of proof lies with the asserter (you).

Or do you think I also have to prove to you that God does not exist, by showing working? :)

If you insist that you have some empirical proof that God does not exist, you are required to provide it, because the question of the existence of God is non-empirical unlike your own assertion. If you make some statement of belief (e.g. “I believe God does not exist”) this is perfectly acceptable but has no impact on someone who believes otherwise, and no impact on empirical reality.

In contrast, if you make an empirical assertion as you have done, and this assertion contrasts with known science, as yours does, you are unequivocally required to provide proof.

You stated your hypothesis as a negative, your method of stating your hypothesis does not challenge the rules of burden of proof. “AGW is unfalsifiable” is unambiguously a positive, yet is the same assertion. You whole premise is fraudulent.

So, if I started with the hypothesis "God does not exist", it would be my burden then too? :)

You act as if my hypothesis could be stated as a positive, rather than a negative. Would you like to demonstrate that?

Driven to trolling I see. You are embarrassing yourself.

That if you express a belief as fact e.g. 'Natural CO2 is a greenhouse gas, but anthropogenically emitted CO2 is not' that somehow, climatologists are obliged to prove you wrong?

Whoa there Trigger, you've jumped again, from the laboratory to the real world, without a critical thought. First of all, CO2 is a greenhouse gas - just like H2O is. Anthropogenically emitted CO2 is a greenhouse gas, just as butterfly emitted CO2 is a greenhouse gas.

None of these truths means that human emissions of CO2 or H2O have any significant effect on global average temperatures.

That's your assertion. Now prove it.

Further, I'm not even at the stage of asking you "wrong" or "right", we're starting with the very foundation of science - falsifiability. If climatologists can't even come up with a falsifiable hypothesis, they can't even get *near* the question of "right" or "wrong" in the scientific sense.

You say that climatologists don't have a falsifiable hypothesis. Now prove it.

The rules for burden of proof vary depending on whether or not the asserter is actually stating an assertion that is already scientifically proven.

So you're simply asserting that AGW is already scientifically proven

Yep. Suck it up.

Wow, ballsy. It's like hearing a creationist assert that Noah's ark is already scientifically proven, while glossing completely over the lack of any falsifiability :)

Listening to me is nothing like listening to you. Don't make me laugh.

a. If I restate an assertion that is already tested and proven according to the scientific method, I have no burden of proof.

But AGW hasn't been tested and proven according to the scientific method.

That's your assertion. Now prove it.

b. If I state a hypothesis that contradicts an assertion already tested and proven according to the scientific method, the burden of proof rests with me.

Actually, if something is already tested and "proven" according to the scientific method, I don't even need to state a hypothesis to disprove it, I simply need to look up their necessary and sufficient falsifiable hypothesis statement, and look for those observations.

Exactly. Falsifiability is no different from any other aspect of the scientific method – if you assert that somebody else's published work is not falsifiable and it ought to be, it's up to you to prove it.

Now you're getting it [liiiightbuullllb!]

c. The same rules apply with regard to accusations of scientific fraud, such as your sub-assertion that the peer reviewed research of early climate scientists (such as Fourier, Arrhenius, Tyndal) is not falsifiable

Another wild stretch? :) My accusations of scientific fraud are limited to the actual people who have done actual fraud, as in Mann, Gleick, and Hansen. To think that I doubt the sincerity of Fourier is a clever attempt at using human shields, but one based on falsehood. :)

Ah, so up until recent times there was no fraud, and therefore the science done before, say 1990, is all falsifiable? Thanks for admitting that AGW is true. And since you've already admitted that the models are falsifiable, your arguments concerning supposed fraud by Mann, Gleick, and Hansen are devoid of meaning.

This is a turkey shoot.

You've claimed that AGW is unfalsifiable (contrary to the accepted position of science).

"The accepted position of science"? :) I also claim that God does not exist, contrary to the accepted position of theology - will you place the burden of proof on me? :)

Apparently you think you should be free to be able to contradict scientific findings at will and not be called on it. You've equated science with theology. Is scientific theory inseparable from belief for you?

For example, you constant repetition of your beliefs has drawn no response from the scientific community.

So you admit that you don't represent the scientific community. Good. Admitting you have a problem is always the first step in recovery :)

Don't be a dick. What does dickish behaviour gain you at this point?

My response has been “Prove your assertion”.

You've effectively admitted that this is the correct response, scientifically. Well done. So: In the future when posting on slashdot – don't assume that a response of “Prove your assertion” means that your argument has assumed any meaning. Don't assume a lack of response means that you've made a clever argument. You can, instead, assume the opposite.

The only thing that could genuinely undermine my position would be if you were to provide empirical proof of your hypothesis 'AGW is unfalsifiable'.

And this empirical proof of a negative would take exactly what form? :)

Pretty much the same form as any other empirical proof of a negative, e.g. “the sun does not revolve around the earth”

What empirical proof would you accept for the hypothesis "God does not exist"? :)

Science is the same as theology to you? I see.

Your view of Popper came not from him or his theories, but from Pielke

Sure it came from Popper. I've read his papers first hand.

Apparently without grasping his meaning. Would you like me to explain it to you?

jump in your car and crank her up to 70. Now close you eyes tight and shout 'The theory that I will crash is unfalsifiable – and Popper says that makes me right!'.

Really? A tortured and incomplete car analogy?

Okay, I'll bite. Jump in your car, and try to start her with your key. Now when the car doesn't start, just insist to yourself, "It's accepted science that when I turn this key, the car will start - if the car doesn't look like it's starting, obviously the starting is hidden somewhere in the deep ocean, waiting to come out later!"

So, applying your analogy to the current hypothesis “AGW is unfalsifiable” which you claim is scientific, don't you, as the originator and asserter of this hypothesis. have to demonstrate that it is scientific before you usage of the phrase “scientific” is valid?

Hoisted on your own analogy.

You want me to engage in hypotheticals?

Yes. That's the beginning of the scientific method. Come up with a falsifiable hypothetical that helps constrain the truth. Then look for those falsifiable criteria as hard as you can.

Can you do that? Have you tried? :)

Well, then: hypothetically, you could falsify AGW by providing the following:

1. The reasons why anthropogenic CO2 did not warm the troposphere as predicted by Arrhenius and others, confirmed by observation.

2. Detailing your hypothesis that explains the recent warming event coinciding with the historical period beginning at the industrial age, and explaining the following observations:

(a) The increased concentration of CO2 in the troposphere bearing an isotope indicating it's anthropogenic origin

(b) The negative feedback mechanism that overwhelmed the warming predicted by Arrhenius and others from increased concentrations of CO2 of human origin.

(c) The cooling of the stratosphere corresponding to the warming troposphere

(d) The statistical significant ( P >.95) relationship between increased concentrations of CO2 and other GHGs and both the rate and magnitude of change

(e) The reasons why your forcing mechanism has not previously been observed.

(f) The reliability of GCM models based on the assumption of GHG induced warming and associated secondary feedback rates

And then testing that hypothesis in a repeatable manner, proving it, and publishing your results in reputable scientific journal.

There is no practical difference between “not answering a question” and “fallaciously answering by reference to a burden of proof fallacy” but I accept your correction that technically, you engaged in the latter and not the former.

Your apology is graciously accepted, even if not graciously given :)

No problem. Thanks (sincerely) for admitting that your answer was fallacious.

Describe exactly where in the strata of experiments that underpin modern climatology that a mistake was made.

No mistakes need to have been made at all. Your blithe assertion that laboratory experiments and physical properties of matter actually *underpin* climatology is the part that is in error.

You've simply restated your hypothesis in a more stupid manner. Describe exactly where in the strata of experiments that underpin modern climatology that a mistake was made.

You cannot jump from a physical property of matter to the central conceit of AGW. The links between the established falsifiable science to AGW must be subject to strict scrutiny, and contain falsifiability of their own.

You've simply restated your hypothesis in a more stupid manner. Describe exactly where in the strata of experiments that underpin modern climatology that a mistake was made.

So wait - you are claiming that the NOAA 2008 model was falsified?

By their own criteria, yes. Heck, you've already stipulated to that as well. Are you confused?

Not at all. Perhaps you should read back a few posts to see what I actually said concerning the NOAA 2008 model.

That's a bit disjointed. Why does this quote from me start half way through a sentence?

Okay, here's your full quote (that it seems you couldn't find yourself):

"Conclusion: Fairy Wishing, Speaking Things Into Existence and all methodologies derived from wishing including yours and expecting unknown individuals to step forward and correct your fallacy don't modify reality by one atom, and so: Your theory that is somebody else's job to prove you wrong is falsified."

Honest mistake on your part. The “disjointed quote” I was referring to was this:

[KM] that you have no hypothesis or necessary method, statement, theory or assertion that would give us any doubt that AGW is verified

Which you cut from this conversation:

[HST]

As for the questions posed to you, you failed to answer (heck, you even failed to *attempt* to answer), so I'll fill in the blanks with my assumptions from your silence:

1) Insofar as arguing we have direct measurements of CO2 forcing, you've chosen not to argue with my assertion that you cannot jump to AGW simply from the radiative properties of a molecule. I graciously accept your concession.

[KM] By that measure you have previously admitted, on multiple occasions, that both the underlying science of AGW and the models built on that groundwork are both falsifiable and true and that you have no hypothesis or necessary method, statement, theory or assertion that would give us any doubt that AGW is verified and that the models represent an accurate model of our future climate and the warming associated with anthropogenic emissions.

Are you going to retract your statement - (correct wording would be, without embellishment: "I retract my statement") otherwise I'll assume you aren't really committed to your retraction and we'll apply these criteria, and apply the criteria also in the future. Nice talking to you!

[/KM]

I see you didn't retract your statement: your complete and unconditional surrender is graciously accepted.

Your assertion that AGW has already fulfilled the requirements of the scientific method, and has a necessary and sufficient falsifiable hypothesis statement somewhere is Fairy Wishing. Your theory that it is somebody else's job to prove you wrong is falsified by your own argument :)

Cool story bro. It's a clever trick to say “nuh uh! That's what YOU said” I daresay Mann is quaking in his boots at how clever you are.

Honestly? I didn't read it.

Thank you for that honesty.

Not a problem.

Comment: Lest we forget (Score 1) 388

by Animats (#43804779) Attached to: A Cold Look at Cold Fusion Claims: Why E-Cat Looks Like a Hoax

I mean, they're still reporting that NIF is some sort of power source. It's not, and likely can't be developed into one.

Right. It's part of the "stockpile stewardship" program, or the Livermore Senior Activity Center for Retired Physicists. Nobody in the US has built a nuclear weapon in decades, and everybody who knew how is dying off. DoD/DoE is trying to hang onto the expertise and recruit some new people to at least maintain the ones already built. So they have to have something for them to do.

Comment: Re:Wrong approach (Score 3, Insightful) 388

by Animats (#43804651) Attached to: A Cold Look at Cold Fusion Claims: Why E-Cat Looks Like a Hoax

Or, much more likely, that they're simply measuring the current incorrectly.

Mod parent up. Bear in mind how this thing works. There's a resistance heater inside, and it is never completely off for long periods. The claim is that the heat given off by the device is greater than that being pumped in by the resistance heater. The heater is fed with a "proprietary waveform" from a control box the watchers were not allowed to examine. All they could do was put clamp-around current sensors on the leads to the device, voltage probes on the inputs, and feed those to a current meter. I strongly suspect problems with the current measurement.

Comment: Re:Before and after (Score 1, Informative) 345

Question: Within the context of quantum mechanic, what is the behavior of TIME ?

AFAIK, it's simplest to describe things with the time-independent Schrödinger equation: H Psi = E Psi. This is close enough for most stable molecular states in chemistry. However, if you're talking about state transitions or spectroscopy or (as in this case) entanglement, you have no choice but to use the time-dependent Schrödinger equation: i h-bar d Psi / d t = H Psi, which is MUCH more difficult.
That H is not a variable but any suitable Hamiltonian operator, which usually has second-derivative goodness AND a complicated Psi-dependent potential energy term. BTW whoever made that Wikipedia page on the Hamiltonian: thank you, it's very clearly written!

AFAIK, entropy is not described at the quantum level, so Ilya Prigogine's "arrow of time" doesn't really exist, and you can just reverse the behaviour of time by putting a minus sign in front of it and see what happens. In Physics, I read this can be done by drawing a Feynman diagram and turning it upside-down.

I hope this helped answer your question...

N.B. if any "real" quantum chemist or quantum physicist reads this and cringes, please mod this down; it's better to give no information than false information!

I cannot draw a cart, nor eat dried oats; If it be man's work I will do it.

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