Your cost estimates are significantly inaccurate, at least in S. California. A friend just had a nominal 5KW system installed for a final cost before 30% rebate of $30K. This is using microinverter technology. His current best hour of production is 3.3KWh.
I have been waiting for prices to come down to where I would get a 7 year payback, assuming electricity rate increases of 3%/year and a cost of money at 5% (paying cash with investment money). So far I cannot even get close, even if I install the system myself.
When I ask others for their financial calculations, nearly everyone either cannot produce useful numbers or they say they do not care. I think there is a lot of Kool-Aid being consumed by the people who put solar arrays on their homes. Perhaps some systems are economic, but not here in the land of sunshine.