Or you could wait until details come out, or read Engadget's report of what Steve said:
"We think a lot of people will want to become an iPhone developer -- go to our site, probably in about an hour, and download the SDK. You can join the developer program to test your app on the iPhone and iPod touch and distribute your app -- to join the dev program costs just $99. If you have any questions about anything give us a ping at developer.apple.com."
In other words, download a *free* SDK to write and test your app, then pay $99 to get the certificate to download onto your hardware, whether or not you decide to distribute it to the general public or not. The only 'going through Apple' is a $99 charge to get the key to the hardware.
But waiting until you actually have the full details and know the facts before making a decision, that is obviously too difficult...