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Comment: Re:Statistical studies (Score 2) 138

by complete loony (#48657281) Attached to: Does Journal Peer Review Miss Best and Brightest?

So build a wiki / forum -ish system where "accepted" papers are published. Anyone can submit a paper, or criticism, or a review, or a meta-review... With a collection of editors & "reviewers" try to keep the whole thing honest.

In other words, a wikipedia that *only* accepts original research.

Comment: Re:Debt is not the cause of wage stagnation (Score 1) 680

by complete loony (#48617093) Attached to: Economists Say Newest AI Technology Destroys More Jobs Than It Creates
Sorry, that's got nothing to do with the point I was trying to make. Though I'm sure I rushed over a few details. I'm not talking about government debts at all. I'm talking about the total debts of the entire nation compared to GDP. The ratio of debt to GDP is higher than it has ever been. Higher than the peak in the 1930's (which was mainly because income fell). How are business and households going to pay back their debts to the banking sector? These are the debts that will not be repaid.

Comment: Stagnation is the result of private debt, not tech (Score 2) 680

by complete loony (#48615749) Attached to: Economists Say Newest AI Technology Destroys More Jobs Than It Creates

Paraphrasing the work of Steve Keen;

Taking out a loan to buy something, increases the income of the seller and the supply of money in circulation. A constant velocity of new loans, would result in a constant influence on economic activity. An accelerating amount of new loans will boost the economy and create jobs. The reverse is also true, decelerating loans will cause spending power to shrink and jobs will be lost. And this is borne out in economic data, there's a strong correlation between debt acceleration and change in employment.

Now, since the 60's the level of private debt has been growing, to become a significant force driving the economy. While borrowing more to buy an existing asset does nothing to create real wealth, it does push up asset prices giving us the illusion of rising prosperity. While rising interest payments are draining real wealth from borrowers.

The banking system should eventually go bust. Probably not tomorrow, but all we have managed to do so far is delay the inevitable. The loans they have issued cannot be repaid. The only question is how we are not going to repay them. Either we go bankrupt, or we find some other way to wipe off the debt.

The Great Depression started with the stock crash of 1929, lasting for the next 10-ish years. But it was the rising debts of the 1920's that were the real problem. Through the depression, those debts started to reduce. But it took the huge spending effort and industrialisation, fighting WWII to really eliminate them. Setting us up for the boom years of the 50's and 60's.

Our economic woes will not go away until we deal with the problem of our private debt. We may see another Depression, some parts of the world already are. Or we may see an extended period of stagnation. History doesn't repeat, but it sure does rhyme.

Comment: Re:Looks pretty impressive... (Score 1) 115

I've been using android studio for a while now, it's much better than eclipse for editing android resources or referencing them from code. But I haven't changed our build process. I still use ant & adb from the command line for building and testing everything on actual hardware.

The confusion of a staff member is measured by the length of his memos. -- New York Times, Jan. 20, 1981

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