A lot of trust has been lost between users and management. And the first problem with a discussion site staying successful is keeping enough users. So, the question as to whether technocrat.net will succeed hinges on whether enough trust has been lost at slashdot to prompt enough people to move.
Assuming enough users do move, the second problem will be running the site. Editorship at slashdot, jokes aside, is a full-time job. So, another question is, will there be enough editor-hours to keep the machine running.
Will enough slashdot readers leave? I'm really not sure. There are a lot of upset readers, but the one thing that will really cause a big exodus, a forced switch to the new interface, won't happen for months. So, users who leave would have to leave a slashdot that is still, on the surface at least, passably acceptable.
Personally, I would like to see a few-month trial of technocrat.net. If things get moving, good; if not, then there will still be some time before slashdot becomes unusuable, and so some time to work with.
Either way, thank you for looking into this.