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Comment: The market prevails (Score 1) 129

by barakn (#42825033) Attached to: How To Stop Prediction Market Manipulation

Bennett's supposition is that an uncapped market could be manipulated, and then arbitrage trading between that and a capped market could cause the value of the capped market to swing away from some true value. The problem with this thesis is the assumption that both markets have equal trust. The capped market should be trusted more, and arbitrage trading between the two markets will tend to bring the two prices closer to what the capped market's original value was.

Comment: Re:Opposite effect (Score 2) 129

by barakn (#42822985) Attached to: How To Stop Prediction Market Manipulation

In that case, one would manipulate the market in favor of the candidate one wishes to lose, causing that candidates supporters not to go to the polls because they think the candidate is a shoe-in. And in case you haven't noticed, people hate political advertising more than they hate cancer and North Korea. This manipulation would be much stealthier.

Q: What is the difference between a duck? A: One leg is both the same.

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