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Comment: Re:Cool story bro. (Score 1) 427

by aug24 (#43367361) Attached to: TSA Log Shows Passengers Say the Darndest Things

You are not being bayesian enough.

You need the probability someone is telling the truth given the evidence of being dumb enough to say "I've got a bomb".

If the Hypothesis is 'got a bomb' and the Evidence is 'said bomb', here are my estimates:

p(E) = 10**-7 proportion of travellers who are dumb enough to say bomb (one in ten million)
p(H) = 10**-13 proportion of travellers who have had a bomb so far (one in ten million million)
p(E|H) = well, ZERO so far, but let's say 10**-3 bombers who mention the word bomb (one in a thousand)

Then p(H|E) = proportion of people who say bomb who have a bomb = P(H) * P(E|H) / P(E) = 10**(-13-3+7) = 10**-9

One in one billion people who mention the word bomb will have a bomb.

So if we close the airport each time for two hours, our losses for an actual bomb need to exceed the damages for closing an airport for two billion hours before it is worth it. That's over 200,000 lifetimes of waiting in the departure lounge.

Just.

Any comments on my maths / approach happily received.

Comment: Re:I'll take a shot... (Score 1) 350

by aug24 (#42933839) Attached to: Alcoholism Vaccine Makes Alcohol Intolerable To Drinkers

That theory (alcohol in the morning for 'withdrawal') is completely wrong. The chemistry is well known.

Hangovers are partially caused by dehydrogenation of alcohols leading to poisonous chemicals. Ethyl alcohol turns to acetaldehyde, but we can deal with this one (thank you evolution).

Methyl alcohol (wood alcohol impurities, present in most drinks to greater or lesser degree) turns to formaldehyde. This is very bad for you and makes you feel like hell. The process of creating formaldehyde is linear (because the total present must be limited due to toxicity), not power based, so there is never too much made unless the amount of methyl alcohol is even more toxic.

However, the conversion process is negatively catalysed (slowed down) in the presence of ethyl alcohol. So, a little beer can reduce the amount present enough to effectively remove the hangover.

Sorry about too many brackets (not really sorry).

Just.

Comment: Re:Why do you want to combine them? (Score 1) 165

by aug24 (#42580427) Attached to: Ask Slashdot: Linux Mountable Storage Pool For All the Cloud Systems?

I used to do this with a friend: peered ftp servers. Everything under /home and /etc was tarred, zipped, encrypted and ftp'd onto his server at midnight, while his did the same to mine. Can't remember where I put the decrypt key, probably on a floppy that is still in my bureau.

Of course, data volumes were lower then, and the sun was warmer, and girls prettier.

Just.

Comment: Re:no (Score 1) 637

by aug24 (#41978661) Attached to: Study Claims Human Intelligence Peaked Two To Six Millennia Ago
The Kalahari bushman's survival is therefore a function of the effectiveness of the safety net present in the system, not his innate abilities. There is a decent chance he'd steal, get the cops called on him and get shot when waving a fucking big knife around to try to scare the cops away, because that's the 'primitive' (ie effective in that situation) approach.

(There is no safety net for rk in the Kalahari. He's plain dead from not knowing how or what to eat. Or he got predated upon)

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