I do not have the time (or perhaps the motivation) to research this proposition. Personal mobility is an anomaly in human history and it cannot be maintained. While we currently live in a fossil fuel rich world, where the prices for fuel to enable personal mobility is whimsically determined by behind the scene market forces and grand scale collusion that Microsoft could fathom only in their wildest dreams, it will, one day, inevitably, come to an end. There are promises of alternative sources of fuel, but IF the global divide in wealth continues to shrink between east and west, many more people will be competing for that ever so dwindling (regardless of how bountiful) fossil fuel called oil.
Lets face it, the reason the USA has been getting a great discount on fuel for the past 20 years is because we indirectly make up (some of) the difference by providing oil producing nations the military protection they do not care to maintain. Oil producing/exporting states have no qualms if they make their money from China or the USA or India or Europe or Africa, as long as they get their money for the liquid gold.
The consumption will eventually spiral to untenable levels (this is speculation, though I strongly believe I am correct based on all sorts of propaganda). This will cause the price of fuel to rise to levels that will cause fundamental change in the way we view the world. People will no longer be able to fill up a tank of gas without having to consider carefully how it will be used. When a 100 mile trip in a private automobile costs nearly $100, people will stop traveling, unless a provided infrastructure is available.
This will cause a tremendous change in all aspects of our lives. This period of transience that we live in today will have to cease. Life will return to historical norms, with children growing up and staying in the towns they were raised in, as opposed to having to move hundreds to thousands of miles away for job opportunities (yes, migrations have happened historically, but nothing like its happening today).
The real question is not IF this will happen, its when will it happen, and what will it look like?
If major changes in electrical (or other generic energy) production is not made, the future will be bleak. If major advances are (not on the levels of star trek or star wars or other sci-fi fiction) not made, then there will most likely be dramatic changes in the way people live life, but not catastrophic. The price of electricity will rise as corporate and government entities will be able to afford the high prices of limited infrastructure, while people will have to "ration" (poor phrase... perhaps conserve is better... though not much as they wont have a choice) energy so their electric bill will be affordable. The prices of transporting goods will climb dramatically... perhaps neutralizing the slave labor wages of oppressive regimes and reinvigorating the manufacturing base of the US. I know this isn't an appealing change (perhaps reinvigorating isnt a good word to use). The world will shrink (in the sense that today you can go anywhere in the world in 24 hours for less than $2,000.00), mass transit will also be expensive, a luxury for the middle-upper class, while personal transportation will be exclusive to the upper class.
Then of course there is the Rodenberry way to go. If the appropriate advances in energy generation occur, mass transit can effectively replace the unsustainable petro-fuel based transportation system. Short range electric cars can replace petro-fuel vehicles, and electricity may be cheap enough (increased consumption with cheaper higher yield production... perhaps) to make charging stations viable. Children will return to growing up and living where they were raised, but can access distant urban centers of commerce via high speed, highly reliable mass transit systems that will return them to their homes at the end of the day in a reasonable time.
Ultimately, whatever the final outcome, personal mobility of today is an anomaly. We will be remember in history as the period where people could go "off the rail" as far as they wanted with no concern. A luxury future generations will not know until/unless a petro-like resource that is far more common is discovered.
I think its funny how the United States has changed in my short life time. I remember growing up and being told that I live in "the land of the free", and that the US is the "most free country in the world", and that "communists were bad". I was indoctrinated "cold war style" into American adult hood.
Wow have things changed, or maybe its just my perception/understanding of the world around me. Some notable differences though... I believe at one time that it was forbidden to "help" communist governments suppress "freedom" from spreading in their country. For example, I believe that you would have been burned at the stake if you were found selling "man traps" to the East German government that were used to stop people from crawling over the Berlin Wall. I dont think saying "Someone else would have built it anyway..." would have worked as a good defense in helping repressive regimes continue to push down their people.
A meager 15 years later, that excuse is all anyone needs to justify any of their actions. As long as you can say "someone else would have done it", its just "ok" to aide repressive regimes. I do find it ironic that Haliburton is serving our troops in Iraq, and right across the border, in the "Axis of Evil" Iran, building oil fields. A company owned and paying retirement to, our Vice President.
However, I dont hold myself to the lowest common denominator. Because "Dick Chenney" does it, doesnt mean I should. Thats probably while I'll never be rich. If only I were born 5 years later, I'd have been indoctrinated under the "Profit makes everything better" motto instead of "We must defend freedom". If only I could look at cheap clothing and not imagine the political prisoner who sewed it together, or go to google and imagine how someone in China cannot type in "democracy" without fear of being sent to jail.
Imagine fearing a search engine.
I think that Western Corporations are deplorable for supporting the suppression of freedoms within countries such as China. None of those companies should have to worry about losing "competitive" edge in those nations because any company caught servicing those countries should be penalized horribly at home, keeping the playing field level, while helping those human beings who are being denied access to information that may one day change their lives.
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