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JamVM simpliciter is probably a 50k download.
The class libraries will be the bulk of the
download for the first application. Subsequent
applications will amortize the download of the
most commonly used classes. Applications themselves
will be quite small.

What I'd really like is an OCAML generating jcode.

The only alternative to JamVM under serious consideration
is mono. What are the size issues with mono?
For winxp+ platforms, .net 1.1 is already there,
so it's a null download, but for all other platforms
it is a massive download. Mono probably is out.

The dev env for jcode is Eclipse. For mono it's
probably C#Devel.

Making the class loader in the vm do everything
on-demand over the wire means getting a supportable
library-server architecture running.