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Submission + - Tech Scare - Quantum Depression from Quantum Communications? ( 4

aisnota writes: Recently it looks as though despite naysayers, quantum communication with electrons is more than just imminent. The economic impact of near limitless broadband has yet to be predicted in any real sense until the following scenario shaped up after a bit of musing after reading this sort of motivated engineer.

"Our dream is to make quantum mechanics fully engineerable," said William Koehl, lead author and a graduate student in the Awschalom lab. "Much like a civil engineer is able to design a bridge based on factors such as load capacity and length span, we'd like to see a day when there are quantum engineers who can design a quantum electronic device based on specifications such as degree of quantum entanglement and quality of interaction with the surrounding environment."
Quantum Communications will impact the valuation before actual conversion to the technology in a profound way ahead of actual delivery of the technology itself. The long term value of telecommunications carriers is in the highest risk category from the whiff of this hitting because of market structures.

Picture this, you hear a background discussion of prices suddenly dipping for long haul communications. The telecommunications sales people chattering away on how all of the prospects vanished seemingly, mysteriously overnight.

Instead of the grousing generally though, you see near abject fear they know something ferocious has come upon their scene, their turf.

Quantum Communications apparently in this near future vision gets sold to long haul customers so they can avoid the high costs of renewals. The technology is barely produced at scale, it is just some magic boxes replacing end point fiber gear, but wait. They are using electrons instead of photons, so the fiber is superfluous and the chip set transceivers are only located geographically as a mere convenience.

Then the economics really hit home as this play by play simulation illustrates as a series of stages:
1.) Sudden changes in sales ability of long haul optical fiber transcontinental and transoceanic varieties slow rapidly to zero.
2.) Quant traders short carriage and transport to reflect that long haul fiber goes from asset to a liability nearly instantly.
3.) Technology placement actually occurs where IRU values are now zero with the bond or debt reset to worse than junk status.
4.) Carriers panic sell remaining links at unforeseen low prices thereby crushing revenues into a near suicide frenzy of last chance business.
5.) Cable companies realize that they are also vulnerable with their telecommunications side line business and follow suit.
6.) Bankruptcies of tier 2 regional carriers and tier 1 international carriers first start as orderly liquidations because of IRU value collapse.
7.) Cell phone carriers realize their underlying infrastructure is now in jeopardy with dependance on carriers going insolvent.
8.) Major cell phone carriers get abandoned because smart phone leaders decide they must sell direct, those cell phone carriers in turn loose all high end business.
9.) Phone services become sporadic in a panic with switches, segments revert to limited government controls via FCC mandate with military provisional orders.
10.) A difficult evolution occurs because the market is less patient than ever with disruptive technology chance while bandwidth availability shoots to 10 gigabit standard.

Okay the above is still just a guess of the impact. But the premise is real as it has been for any disruptive unstoppable technology. Just as unstoppable as the invasion of the new world by gun powder toting individuals looking for conquest and gold.

With so many wins for the disruptive player, read the contrast of value we see out there. Have you seen a modem lately, analog?

Change occurs very quickly and it is important to share your thoughts of quantum communications. Some physics major or others may say it is just going to be a very long time to never. Maybe the same kinds of people with no clue about the transistor or power of miniaturization.

But can you really put much stock when they say stop, will not happen?

History repeatedly shows this is the case where technology marches forward, faster than any anticipation of pundits.

Quantum Communications is the next big throw into the ring of change.

Please post your new ideas on how this near magical, yet dramatic set of changes are possible in numbered order.

Quark! Quark! Beware the quantum duck!