Or their equivalent from South Korea ?
Or their equivalent from South Korea ?
Days after a Malaysian airliner with 239 people aboard went missing en route to Beijing, searchers are still struggling to find any confirmed sign of the plane. Authorities have acknowledged that they didn't even know what direction it was heading when it disappeared.
In 2009, Air France Flight 447 en route to Paris from Rio de Janeiro vanished over the Atlantic Ocean, triggering the most expensive and exhaustive search effort ever conducted for a plane. After two years, officials could only narrow the location of the plane's black box down to an area the size of Switzerland.
What took two years for other experts in the search for the black box, took only five days for consultants who applied the Bayes' Theorem, to finally find the device 12,000 feet under water.
"It's a very short, simple equation that says you can start out with hypothesis about something — and it doesn't matter how good the hypothesis is," said Sharon Bertsch McGrayne, author of "The Theory That Would Not Die: How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy."
The hypothesis is subject to change, based on probability, but can still be used with the theorem. Pretty much based on the concept of learning from experience, one can say.
It is because of this character of the formula — forcing researchers to change their hypothesis with each new information — that the probability becomes more accurate.
Bayes' Theorem, which is also used in Google's driverless cars and predictions in stock markets, is based on probability. Because the theorem starts with a hypothesis – something McGrayne said "can be very subjective" – it had been seen as controversial until the 1960s. But because it forces researchers to change their hypothesis with each new piece of information, the probability becomes more accurate.
The theorem was used in World War II to locate German U-boats and the lost nuclear submarine U.S.S. Scorpion. It was also used during the Cold War to spot Soviet submarines.
"The AF 447 search is rooted in Bayesian inference," Lawrence D. Stone, chief scientist at Virginia-based scientific consultancy Metron – which was contacted to apply Bayes' Theorem in the search for the Air France plane – wrote in ORMS Today magazine in 2011. Bayes' Theorem "allows the organization of available data with associated uncertainties and computation of the PDF (probability distribution function) for target location given these data," he said.
Despite assistance from Australia, China, Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam, Philippines and the United States, Malaysian search efforts are even further from locating Flight MH370. The search area has been expanded to almost 27,000 square nautical miles – an area roughly equivalent to the state of Indiana – authorities said. That's more than 10,000 nautical square miles larger than the search for Air France Flight 447, before Bayes' Theorem was applied.
Stone told Al Jazeera that in the current search for flight MH370, it is "highly unlikely" that Bayes' Theorem is being applied.
That is not to suggest it is totally absent.
Bayes' Theorem is pervasive, and those involved in the current search have applied a certain Bayesian flavour in their search, "but it then got upset when their prior calculations were incorrect," said statistician Professor Bradley Efron of Stanford University, as quoted by Al Jazeera, referring to the conclusion by Malaysian authorities that the MAS plane could have ended up in the Strait of Malacca.
Bayes' Theorem, after all, is all about learning from experience, which is probably why Efron said one would need "reasonably accurate past experiences" for the theorem to work. In other words, to calculate accurately to locate the plane."
... and has been very actively posting from that other account.
And he has been posting a lot under the AC moniker too.
On another site (the alt site) I've outlined the bribe that Dianne Feinstein took back in the 1980's and the way she took it and from whom she received the bribe.
I wasn't the only one on the dock when Feinstein and her entourage arrived. The Taiwanese Kuomingtang people were there too.
My target wasn't Feinstein. I was merely interested in the struggle between two groups of people from Taiwan that took place on the American soil.
In the course of my own investigation Dianne Feinstein's name kept popping up.
In other words, if the Kuomingtang people has the info on Dianne taking bribes (and I know they still keep that dossier) I will not be surprised that information will somehow "fall" into the hands of the CIA operatives.
Right now CIA is keeping a very low key, but once CIA obtains what they need on Feinstein, sparks will fly, investigation will be launched, justice department will be involved, court hearings (secret and/or open courts) will held, and Feinstein will find herself on the roasting pole very very soon, if she thinks she can take on the mighty CIA.
"Yes, there is a club. No, you(*) are not a member."
If it was 50 years ago, yes, even I want to join that club.
But this is year 2014. That club has lost all its luster, and people are leaving.
Many people have left, including me, since 2003.
I only go back once a while on business trips. That's all.
Whew ! And I was feeling so lonely.
Fact is, our country, the United States of America, was founded by a bunch of idiots, idiots who cared about their liberties.
The problem we are facing right now is, most of the Americans have grown so "smart" that they willy-nilly give up their liberties in exchange for some pie-in-the-sky promise of "security".
For me, I rather stay as an idiot than being so smart that I end up losing all my liberties.
They are of the same kind, not dupes.
On one side we got scumbags.
On the other side we got assholes.
In other words, it's a showdown between the scumbags and the assholes.
Assholes accusing scumbags of torturing people, but in the meantime it was the assholes who defended the scumbags when they violated the Constitutions, ignoring the Bill of Rights, invading the privacy of Hundreds of Millions of the American Citizens, and billions more people outside of America.
As this is Slashdot, and most people who come to Slashdot are geeks, I'll say this -
We geeks comes in all color, size and hairstyle (some without hair), and work in many professions. But most of the geeks I that know are makers.
It's us that crank our brain, outline the possibilities, do the design, create the prototype, and only after we are satisfied with what we have create, we let the world enjoy the fruit of our labor.
Nevertheless, $100k is a lot of money...
True, $100K may be a lot of money, if it's the price you pay to put a device into your $10K car.
But we are talking about a jet plane that is worth $100M and up.
What is the ratio of $100K to the original plane pricetag of $100M ? 1: 1000
Allow me to put it in the context of your car - Let's say your car's price tag is $10K, What will that device cost you, if it's 1000th of your car ? $10 ??
I ain't as famous as Larry but I can tell you this one thing -
As a geek, I equate my time spent on sitting through a board meeting as worse than hell.
Regarding the "wheeling and dealing on the phone", I do not do that.
I still go down to the face-to-face level.
No matter if the other fella happens to be a big shot like that Larry fella or a wide-eyed young entrepreneur-in-training looking for a seed funding, a face to face session can gain me a lot of valuable info (mostly subliminal / body language) that I can't get from either teleconference (or worse, over the phone).
A guy with a low 5-digit and a guy with a lower than mine 4-digit UID were having their parties back in '99 and I was working my ass off pulling cables trying to fulfill Al Gore's "Information Superhiway" prophecy.
Man, I totally missed the damn boat !!
... because after 40 years in the military, getting a pension check means you're a "Taker"
There should not be any stigma, whether it be positive or negative, attach to the word "taker".
Just like anything else, there are good and bad in every category.
If a person has served his/her country for the past 40 years in the military, of course that individual (and his/her spouse) ought to enjoy the fruit of his/her lifelong endeavor.
A check from the gov is insignificant, in the light of the contribution that has been paid forth, in advance.
Way too many of them lazy fuckers who just do not have that urge to make themselves better are sucking the gov dry.
We, as the taxpayers, should not bear the cost of paying those lazy fuckers to continue to be lazy fuckers.
Let's be clear - there are some who are down on their luck (I was very poor before, I know the physical and emotional stresses extreme poverty brings) who needs temporary assistance. I have no qualm of giving them a hand.
But we should draw a limit somewhere - and should not continue in paying those who claim they can't find any work a monthly check just because they tell us they can't find a job.
Are there no job or are those people being too choosy ?
There are millions of illegal aliens in America who can find jobs - the claim of there is no job in America just won't fly.
If those who are getting monthly checks from the gov refuse to work, then they should be on their own.
As I said, I had been poor before, so poor that I didn't even have a place to stay in winter (yes, I did spent some winter nights sleeping on a bench in a park) but at least once I got a chance I grab it and no matter how tough/dangerous that job was, how miserable the pay was, as long as the pay could get myself back to the society, I grabbed it.
Do you agree with the Slashdot Beta program ?
And so the NRA's smear campaign continues to influence idiots like you
I am a card carrying member of both the NRA and the ACLU.
I am an American who treasure the Constitution and the Bill of Rights, and am willing to do anything and everything to protect my country from traitors such as that asshole Feinstein.
If doing so makes me an "idiot", so be it, and I hope that America has more "idiots" like me than "geniuses" such as your kind.
I say it's time to double-down
You gotta understand that assholes like Dianne Feinstein doesn't think like us.
She thinks she's in the 0.1% elite, and for that, she ought to have the immunity from the same BIG BROTHER that she has thrown her support for.
As for us, asshole Feinstein look at us as if we are peons, slaves for the elites, that we do not have any right to enjoy the protection granted by the Constitution and the Bill of Rights, and that we ought to be stripped of everything, and kow-tow to her and her kinds.
Loose bits sink chips.