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Comment: p-value research is misleading almost always (Score 5, Interesting) 208

by SteveWoz (#49495363) Attached to: Social Science Journal 'Bans' Use of p-values

I studied and tutored experimental design and this use of inferential statistics. I even came up with a formula for 1/5 the calculator keystrokes when learning to calculate the p-value manually. Take the standard deviation and mean for each group, then calculate the standard deviation of these means (how different the groups are) divided by the mean of these standard deviations (how wide the groups of data are) and multiply by the square root of n (sample size for each group). But that's off the point. We had 5 papers in our class for psychology majors (I almost graduated in that instead of engineering) that discussed why controlled experiments (using the p-value) should not be published. In each case my knee-jerk reaction was that they didn't like math or didn't understand math and just wanted to 'suppose' answers. But each article attacked the math abuse, by proficient academics at universities who did this sort of research. I came around too. The math is established for random environments but the scientists control every bit of the environment, not to get better results but to detect thing so tiny that they really don't matter. The math lets them misuse the word 'significant' as though there is a strong connection between cause and effect. Yet every environmental restriction (same living arrangements, same diets, same genetic strain of rats, etc) invalidates the result. It's called intrinsic validity (finding it in the experiment) vs. extrinsic validity (applying in real life). You can also find things that are weaker (by the square root of n) by using larger groups. A study can be set up in a way so as to likely find 'something' tiny and get the research prestige, but another study can be set up with different controls that turn out an opposite result. And none apply to real life like reading the results of an entire population living normal lives. You have to study and think quite a while, as I did (even walking the streets around Berkeley to find books on the subject up to 40 years prior) to see that the words "99 percentage significance level" means not a strong effect but more likely one that is so tiny, maybe a part in a million, that you'd never see it in real life.

Comment: Radio Cartel has a simple way of stopping this... (Score 2) 218

by PortHaven (#49469441) Attached to: Legislation Would Force Radio Stations To Pay Royalties

All they have to do is pick one of the big 5 labels, one of the smaller two. And say....

Oops....NONE OF YOUR ARTISTS are getting any airplay.

That label will tank, as none of their artists will get sales. Meanwhile, those artists will riot, because they will be locked into contracts unable to move to another company, and unable to make profits. The result - RIAA will backpedal.

Comment: YOU ARE WRONG (Score 1) 218

by PortHaven (#49469427) Attached to: Legislation Would Force Radio Stations To Pay Royalties

LICENSES are merely the means to collect the fees to pay the royalties. They are, in fact one and the same. One is merely the means of securing the other.

BMI and ASCAP pay the writers of the music.
RIAA is payment merely for the use of a recording.

Frankly, any such law, should state that 75% of the royalties should go directly to the artists. Otherwise, there should be no collection. Presently, most artists rarely see any of their royalties. It used to be because artists were indebted to the recording studios. But these days, many artists self-produce professional quality musicin home studios - often of better quality than the recording label studios. (As the latter rush the production of the recording, where as home studio artists spend hundreds and thousands of hours tweaking things to perfection.)

Comment: Huh.,.wait... (Score 1) 229

I think all of the chips I've bought from Intel have been made in Malaysia or China. This is probably one of those, hey the chips are fabricated in China. But don't you dare sell the units to them. So China just operates a midnight shift, presses their own, and America loses out on revenue.

Comment: #FAIL 30 days later... (Score 1) 267

by PortHaven (#49353399) Attached to: Generate Memorizable Passphrases That Even the NSA Can't Guess

The system requires you to change your password. That complicated passphrase is now useless.

In fact, mandatory password resets often are the cause of weak passwords. Humans can't constantly change and remember their passwords. So they go to simpler passwords and patterned passwords.

Comment: Droughts = Cold (Score 5, Interesting) 279

by PortHaven (#49216775) Attached to: California's Hot, Dry Winters Tied To Climate Change

Some insights....I grew up in San Diego, droughts were fairly common.

I returned to southern California for school, and was there for the last half of the nineties, you know...those uber-hot years. Guess what, we were getting more rain those hot years. People were talking about the decades old drought finally coming to an end.

Than it began to get cooler again, and the droughts returned. For your info, droughts, deserts, etc are often tied to global cooling. Cooler global temperatures lock up moisture as ice. Resulting in increased ice caps, but also increased equatorial deserts.

Higher temperatures result in a much more humid global climate. Greener, greater moisture content. So when I see all the references to droughts. I think global cooling, not global warming.

While that is climate change. It's Earth, the climate is always changing - I'd be more afraid if it wasn't. The earth has experienced far cooler periods, and periods that were twenty degrees hotter than today. Life continued and thrived.

Comment: Easy fix... (Score 1) 135

by PortHaven (#49165431) Attached to: Adjusting To a Martian Day More Difficult Than Expected

Find people who are constantly late...

It's already been noted by numerous studies, that those who wake up early and are always early, tend to have a circadium pattern which follows a shorter minute/date. Those who are late, have a rhythm that results in a longer perceived minute. The end result, those of us who are the latter will probably finally wake up and function the way we should...


Comment: Per the logic in this article headline - DOOMED! (Score 1) 341

by PortHaven (#49165357) Attached to: We Stopped At Two Nuclear Bombs; We Can Stop At Two Degrees.

Per the logic in this article headline, humanity is DOOMED!!!

The article stipulates that we stopped at 2 bombs, we can stop at 2 degrees.

Well, we didn't...in fact humans have droped 2,119 bombs (+ or - a few)

By this logic, expect the average global temperature to go from a cozy cool 57.2F to a sunlike 2,176.2 degrees (+ or - a degree or two) ;-)

Uncompensated overtime? Just Say No.