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Comment: Re: supply, demand, currency, prices, compensation (Score 1) 344

by NickGnome (#43559427) Attached to: New Study Suggests No Shortage of American STEM Graduates
"Don't the laws of supply and demand state that if the overall wage goes down, purchasing power goes down, and then prices must fall to match?"
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There is no "overall wage". When we talk about supply and demand, we're usually taking about the supply of and the demand for some particular product or service, or "market basket" or products and services. In practice, we use statistical averages or medians, income quintiles... and use longitudinal studies to track a sampling of individuals or families over time.

But, if the supply of currency goes up, by quantitative easing a.k.a. old-fashioned debasing a.k.a. inflation, for instance, then the amount of currency required to purchase goods will increase, i.e. prices will rise. But they don't all rise at once, nor by exactly the same amount or percentage, because some people get the new currency earlier than others. Some people don't become aware of the increase in currency (directly or indirectly) until late in the sequence.

Those who get the new currency first are usually able to buy at pre-inflation/pre-devaluation/pre-QE prices, while those who catch on late, find themselves buying at the higher prices.

Debasement of the currency hurts poor and wealthy alike, but those with closest ties to the issuers of the currency, those who receive the new money first, come out better than most. Those who keep savings through the period lose as its value is eroded. Those with debts win because they can pay their debt with the lower-valued currency.

In this case, the supply of labor is being expanded, the compensation of those in the affected fields drops, their "purchasing power", savings, and retained wealth are eroded (as stuff wears out and they cannot afford to maintain or repair or replace).

OTOH, the reason given for moving manufacturing off-shore was to be "competitive" (with whom?), to hold down or reduce prices. But prices went up from the 1970s to present, and profits and compensation to many executives, and some investors rose. But, at the same time, the Fed and US (and other) governments were debasing the currency and competing for finances, and playing weird games with regulation of financial institutions, so the financial waters were muddied. During which quarters did debasement predominate? During which did reduction in quality of goods predominate? Which goods increased in quality and which decreased? During which did retail price rises predominate?

Comment: Re: meritocracy and backrgound investigatios (Score 1) 344

by NickGnome (#43559079) Attached to: New Study Suggests No Shortage of American STEM Graduates
"In fact, I'm one of those meritocratic boogeymen that thinks our borders should be open with nothing more than a background check into your criminal record before you're granted entrance to the United States"
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Meritocracy would be a big improvement, but the execs (business and academia) have been resisting that mightily. They don't want any solid, objective, enforceable minimal (intelligence, knowledge, work experience...) standards for the low-skill E-3, H-1B, J, and L visas for cheap, young, pliant labor with flexible ethics.

None of the cheap labor crowd want proper background investigations of visa applicants. A lot of politicians think it's wunnnnderful that the US government has signed onto "visa waiver" pacts.

While reading the EPI report Low-skill H-1B guest-workers in the US STEM job market I was prompted to dig up the latest DoS statistics. 135,991 H-1B (including the H-1B1s set aside for Chile and Singapore) were issued through consular offices in FY2012 (so much for all the propaganda of an annual limit of 65K or 85K). My main complaint with the EPI report is that they fail to include a precise definition of "IT work-force" and "IT occupations" that they're using, though they talk around it a bit.

Comment: Re:FWD.us? (Score 1) 484

by NickGnome (#43431433) Attached to: Zuckerberg Lobbies For More Liberal Immigration Policies
What's the current resident USA population?
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What is the current resident USA population density?

What is the current unemployment rate for USA STEM professionals?

How does the current unemployment rate for USA STEM professionals compare with historical unemployment rates in times of full employment?

What percentage of USA STEM grads land STEM work?

How does that compare with historical records?

Are the claims that H-1B recipients are "best and brightest" or "high-skilled" supported by any evidence whatsoever?

Are the executives involved in the campaign for more cheap, young, pliant foreign labor with questionable ethics engage in ethical or unethical enterprises? (In this case, NO.)

Comment: Re:One cause (Score 1) 419

"University, even in engineering, has always taught relatively esoteric theory"
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I recall thinking that a lot of the freakie theoretical academic CS material was not very interesting, just something we had to slog through... but, even when I was working at the U, and then later in various jobs, I found I was using every bit of it*.

And every few years someone comes up with more that gets published in some obscure journal that turns out to be useful on the job, and after 5 years or so makes its way into the text-books and such.

* Well, OK, I never did actually find a use for the various GCD algorithm examples and "proofs"/"validations" that Wirth and Knuth seemed to wax so enthusiastic over, but my mathematician friend assured me, just a few months back, that uses exist.

Comment: Re: STEM enrollments (Score 1) 419

Once again, from http://nces.ed.gov/ which does not report by race/ethnicity/citizenship and major (unlike the degrees earned data)
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AY1992-1993 (earliest enrollment figures I could find)
CS 927K
engineering 1.229M
physical sciences 254K

AY2007-2008 (latest I could find by field)
CS 702K
engineering 690K
physical sciences 180K

So, yes, it appears enrollments are down, quite reasonably enough considering the dysfunctional US job markets for STEM fields.

Comment: Re: Execs don't want to invest time+$ to train (Score 1) 419

"The first job is by far the hardest to get. After that first job though, if you're good, you'll be sought after by former bosses and colleagues as they move around in the industry."
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That works fine... until you reach the ripe old age of 35 or 40, depending on your specialty. Then, the "candidate management systems" will guarantee no human hiring manager ever learns of your existence, because the software and configuration by the HR clones designate you as too expensive regardless of your intelligence, knowledge, productivity, industry, etc. That's what the data suggest, anyway.

Comment: Re:H1B Visas are abused to artificially lower wage (Score 1) 419

"H1B visas should be converted to green cards after 1 year with minimal paperwork and cost and a streamlined approval process."
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Sure... about 5 years after they start running (and charging reasonable costs for) proper background investigations on every visa applicant.

Then, after the initial term of 8-10 months, when/if they ask for a renewal, only an incremental investigation need be conducted or charged for, and they can have a nice sabbatical of a couple months back home, before starting another guest-work term of 8-10 months. Then, after 10 years, they can apply for green cards and only have to go through another incremental investigation.

And, since we'd only be approving the genuinely "best" or "brightest" with "high skill levels" it shouldn't be more than 1K or 2K new guest-work visas (H-1B, H-2B, L, J work) per year. Except that it should respond to unemployment rates such that when unemployment rates rise, the numbers decrease to 100 or 200 per year.

Comment: Re: difficulty of curriculum (Score 1) 419

"for 7 years. Upon my return, I found the curriculum MUCH easier."
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I've gone back several times for refreshers. I also try to keep in touch with relatives attending university, and some professor friends. Some things are much easier and others more difficult, and some of the differences vary from prof to prof rather than a reflection of general standards. One consistent trend has been that universities engage in far more privacy violation.

Some profs like to tax/test students' ability to make creative leaps from incomplete information. Some refuse to retrogress to re-explain things students have forgotten from disuse or whatever, or to explain them in different ways. Others spoon-feed every little thing. Both can convey the same amount of info when all is said and done, and each approach has advantages and disadvantages.

When I started, the only deadlines we had for programming assignments and term papers was the end of the term. Now, there's a much more rigid system of due dates and penalties which doesn't let you juggle priorities as much amongst work and other classes as we used to do. Part of that is because very few students plan to work their ways through university, now, it having been made virtually impossible. Instead, everyone takes out loans and pay the piper later.

Comment: Re: STEM degrees earned (Score 1) 419

"almost no change in the number of degrees awarded"
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I'm not seeing that, looking at
http://nces.ed.gov/
the Digest of Education Statistics.

In academic year 1959-1960, US citizens earned about 45,624 engineering degrees, and some 80,566 STEM degrees altogether.

That rose to 71,795 engineering degrees, and 162,190 STEM degrees in AY1971-1972; 95,044 engineering degrees and 230,129 STEM degrees in AY1989-1990, when the H-1B visa program started and the Cold War supposedly ended, after which US citizen STEM degrees dipped.

In AY2001-2002, US citizens earned 71,492 engineering degrees and 240,592 STEM degrees. In AY2009-2010, US citizens earned 91,430 engineering degrees and 310,586 STEM degrees.

From AY1969-1970 to AY2009-2010, US citizens earned over 1.3 million CS degrees, 3.1M engineering degrees, and 91M STEM degrees.

Studies by Michael Teitelbaum, Hal Salzman, and B. Lindsay Lowell suggest that only about a third to a half of new STEM grads have been landing STEM jobs.

But degrees with particular majors don't equal the ceiling on the talent pool for competent software developers, engineers or other kinds of STEM professionals. NSF reports suggest that, from AY1969-1970 to AY2009-2010, over 2.3M US citizens developed skills and knowledge in software development, 4M in engineering, and 11.9M in all STEM fields -- many by minoring or otherwise taking significant university course-work in those fields. Additional US citizens developed the necessary knowledge and skills by taking only 1 or 2 classes or employer-provided training combined with additional self-directed study and work experience.

According to Samuel C. Florman, past president of ASCE, in his book, in 1916, half of America's practicing engineers had never been to college. I would add that Nicolaus Otto, developer of the internal combustion engine, was a grade-school drop-out due to the death of his father and never attended a university.

Comment: Re: quality of engineering ed declining (Score 1) 419

"I am an electrical engineer, and work in Europe. What I see here, is that the quality of engineers coming out of college or universities is declining at an alarming rate. The knowledge-level about basic subjects is embarrassing to say the least."
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Please, tell us more. What "basic subjects" are they failing to teach?

Comment: UR for SW devs twice as bad as at full employment (Score 1) 419

The unemployment rate in times of full employment runs about 0.5% for electrical engineers.
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The unemployment rate in times of full employment runs about 1% for software product developers, according to the BLS data.

They should have included graphs, with markers for times of full employment in the past, and markers for times of worst unemployment.

"We shall reach greater and greater platitudes of achievement." -- Richard J. Daley

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