To discourage others from operating infrastructure that can aid in DDoS attacks? This kind of high visibility move tends to invoke certain emotions among people who might be otherwise inclined to assist in some criminal enterprise. Whoever owned that server is probably not having a good week right now, and it's clear that simply operating some seemingly benign infrastructure that aids in a conspiracy to commit a crime is something that can get your equipment seized and your ass in hot water.

At the end of the day it's going to be the FCC settling this debate. Limiting consumer choice is never a good idea when you have a strong market position (like Apple's with mobile devices). The US government tends to frown on that in the long run.

Honestly it doesn't hurt me particularly either way. I'm just pointing out that HTML5 is disruptive to flash; developers know it, Adobe knows it, and a battle will likely follow. You seem to have quite a lot invested in it though which is unfortunate; that kind of zelot like commitment to anything can only serve to hurt you when making critical decisions. Also, I think most people in the technology space would point out that predicting the dominance of various technologies a decade out is a fools errand 99% of the time.

Linux V windows was a very different story. The problem there was the OEMs, who had trouble seeing the value in offering (let alone promoting) the linux operating system as a substitute for windows to mass market consumers. On the server market where the same obstacle did not exist the shift did happen.

Agreed! Good discussion, very interesting. Should be fun to see how it plays out over the next few years.

There are a lot of issues with the integration of Java applets in browsers which really prevented widespread adoption. In a lot of respects Flash took advantage of Java's mistakes in this area and improved on the methods substantially to come up with a better platform that really put the final nails in the coffin. Both flash and java applets suffer from similar deficiencies when compared to the advantages of HTML5 (and related technologies). Point is, Java applets failed to take hold for reasons beyond the ones you are pointing to so it's not really a good parallel.

You're absolutely right. If you're a SaaS developer you're going to build your application for the most widely distributed platform that meets your needs so that it is as easy to sell as possible. However you're overlooking the possibility of new functionality made possible by HTML5 (and other open standards) which could enable the development of SaaS apps that address specific needs of the enterprise that were not previously possible without a client application. Look at some of the stuff Google is exploring with their upcoming extension store thing for Chrome. Those applications may not exist yet in widespread use, but that's not the point. The point is that they are now becoming possible, and possible only on the platforms that support the new technologies. If those platforms are in widespread enough use at this point to justify development, and if the use cases are compelling enough to some buyers to justify installing a browser (where they would have previously installed a client app, which is just as expensive if not even more expensive to maintain) then the tide will really start to shift.

You're right, Adobe is not stupid and they will try and find a way to fight back effectively. Right now the biggest battle that they are losing is on the mobile front. Apple has essentially told them to go fuck themselves and even though Google has done the work to build them into Android 2.2 that OS has yet to be widely deployed. In the mean time a huge ecosystem of apps developers who could have (and I'm sure Adobe would have preferred to have had) developed their applications in flash (in theory) have become accustomed to building native applications which is a really bad position for them to be in even on the platforms that they will finally be breaking into. So Adobe clearly needs to find a way to get onto these mobile platforms in a serious way, and all of them. Once they are on the platforms, they need to fight back the tide of native application development and assert themselves as the superior alternative to the already now very entrenched paradigm. How are they going to do that exactly?

And it again reverts to a question of when rather than if. When that happens, flash is going to have some major problems if they have not changed their strategy pretty significantly.

At the end of the day corporate IT departments do what they are told in terms of platforms and software to support. More and more of the software businesses are using is moving into the SaaS space rather than client applications. The same dominance that prevented anything but windows from running on the average corporate desktop could be a critical factor in pushing other browsers into the pre-installed space on the average at work desktop. If management decides to purchase a subscription SaaS application to do X critical business function, and it requires Y browser to run, they will order the IT department to find a way to install it enterprise wide. A few Microsoft disciples in the ranks may grumble but at the end of the day they only make recommendations as to what should be done they don't have total control over the decisions.